AFTER an early season of injuries and rumours of injuries, the British athletics squad's medal potential has shrunk to the only two fit figureheads who seem likely to make a fist of things in Beijing: Phillips Idowu and Christine Ohuruogu.
There are others who may pull something out of the fire, but as contenders go, Idowu and Ohuruogu stand alone as possible gold medallists in the team announced yesterday afternoon.
None of this exactly inspires confidence in a nation that will tak
e over the Olympic flag from its Chinese counterparts next month. Put crudely, in athletics, Britain is heading for the worst showing at an Olympics since Brendan Foster won a solitary bronze in the 10,000m in 1976.
It speaks volumes that the media are urgently tracking the scans of Paula Radcliffe's fractured femur for signs of an unlikely third gold medal to boost the team's chances of equalling their Athens haul.
But it should not be forgotten just how fraught Athens was. Britain's only two individual golds were won by one athlete: Kelly Holmes. The only other squad member to win an individual medal of any colour was Kelly Sotherton in the heptathlon. Sweden (population eight million) with a team of 16 won as many golds as Britain (population 60 million) with 58 athletes.
But to the team. It is not so much Idowu's world indoor gold and world leading distance of 17.58m that inspires confidence, but the new-found consistency that was always lacking from his armoury. That, and the fact he seems, as Jonathan Edwards noted at the weekend trials, to have slimmed down and lost that cumbersome look which so often seemed to drag him earthwards when he should have been soaring. Idowu now has the look and demeanour of a man who believes in himself and his opening series in Birmingham at the weekend – 17.58, 17.57, 17.27 – confirms the fact.
Last year, after her one-year ban for missing three tests, Ohuruogu won gold at the World Championships in Osaka with the minimum of preparation. But there was one important athlete missing: Sanya Richards of the USA. Illness struck world leader Richards at the worst possible moment in the cut-throat, first-past-the-post American system. This year, however, there were no mistakes and it is Richards who represents Ohuruogu's biggest threat. Over 200m, the American is currently half-a-second faster and on Sunday she clocked 49.86 for 400m, over a second faster than the Englishwoman this season. That is not the same as competing head-to-head but as pointers go, it makes Richards clear favourite.
The other member of the 400m squad, world silver medallist Nicola Sanders, withdrew from the trials at the weekend with injury and that bodes ill. With less than a calendar month to go before the Games open, Sanders joins a long list of walking wounded, hardly ideal preparation.
After their shock gold in Athens, the men's sprint relay have something to live up to if they can overcome the furore surrounding Dwain Chambers. With an eye on Thursday's court case, the selectors have only named one 100m runner, the talented Simeon Williamson.
It was the 22-year-old Highgate harrier who pushed Chambers all the way to the line for a personal best 10.03 on Saturday. He fulfils the ideal photo-fit of what UK Athletics is looking for: youth, podium potential and talent. Unfortunately, he enters the frame at a time when 100m sprinting is enjoying a surge in times. Not even Ben Johnson on drugs was as fast as Jamaica's Usain Bolt. And that is without mentioning America's world champion Tyson Gay and Jamaica's Asafa Powell. Given the plethora of talent he is up against, Williamson will have done well to get to the final in Beijing. Only Chambers, if picked, can have greater aspirations.
Initially, it looked like Sotherton would be a serious contender to fill Caroline Kluft's spikes in the heptathlon. Kluft goes only in the long jump this year. But Sotherton has been ravaged with serious kidney illness this winter and, in the UK trials, was well below the par expected for someone with hopes of gold. Particularly disappointing was her Achilles heel, the javelin. After several coaches and years of agonising over her weakness, she could still manage no better than 34 metres in the trials.
Much has been made of Jade Johnson's chances in the long jump after her 6.81 in the European Cup. But on the same weekend in Istanbul, non-specialist Kluft leapt 6.87 as well as a huge marginal failure over 7m. And that is without mentioning the 11 other contenders who have jumped further than Johnson this summer. Add to that Johnson's lowly 6.30 to win the trials and she too can count herself lucky if she makes the final.
Despite their fine wins in Oslo over 1500m and the Dream Mile, neither Andy Baddeley nor Tom Lancashire should expect too much. They will come up against a phalanx of Africans who will turn the last 800m of any middle distance final into a maelstrom.
One odd omission is Perri Shakes-Drayton in the 400m hurdles. She outclassed the selected Tasha Danvers in the trials, but only has the 'B' standard time. However, on the strength of that win and her youth, she surely had a good argument to be sent for the invaluable blooding the Beijing Olympics will provide.
The full article contains 922 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
