TONY McCoy should think himself lucky he's had a mere 13 unsuccessful attempts at riding the winner of the Grand National. Yours truly has had a lot more goes than that at trying to get the better of the Aintree marathon, and I'm only trying to tip the winner of the damn thing.
The closest I've come was Bridegroom proving to be more of a Bridesmaid when runner-up to Huntsman back in '62. 1862 that is.
Not to worry, if the champion jockey can put all his past disappointments behind him and keep coming back for more, the r
est of us have no excuse for hoisting the white flag.
Conventional wisdom has it that the National is a much classier event than was once the case which everyone would accept, although the second part of the theory, that that therefore makes it an easier puzzle to solve, is a slightly harder hypothesis to swallow.
In recent years, it's true both Hedgehunter and Comply Or Die have justified their positions at the head of the market, the latter being sent off joint favourite when scoring twelve months ago, but the average price of recent National gold medal holders is still around the 18-1 mark so it's hardly a punters' paradise.
On top of that, Ladbrokes say they have statistics to prove that women are better than finding the winner than men are and that surely proves how much of a lottery it is, doesn't it!
"The greatest mystery of gambling is how on earth girls seem to do better than blokes on Grand National day. For the past seven years, our records show that women have a better strike rate than men in the big race," admitted the Magic Sign's spokesman David Williams. "We can't explain it."
With up to £250 million forecast to be bet on a Merseyside spectacular that will last little more than ten minutes, a staggering £416,000 per second will be spread around the bookmaking industry this afternoon.
By the way, and for no reason that I can think of, Ladbrokes expect Big Fella Thanks to be a very popular choice with female customers.
Faced with a forty strong field, the margin for error is huge so how do we ensure the layers get to keep as little of that enormous sum as possible?
Simple, just bet Parsons Legacy.
Richard Johnson's mount finished third in last year's Scottish National at Ayr so we can be as sure as we can be that today's four and a half mile trip won't find him wanting and while his latest outing at Cheltenham was disappointing, he's a horse that shows his best on good ground so conditions at Prestbury Park wouldn't have suited. "He never got into any rhythm that day and he needs good, fast jumping ground which he should get so he has as good a chance as you can have," said Johnson.
The recent lack of rain at Liverpool won't have done much to help the chances of an Irish raiding party looking to better an already impressive National record of six winners in the past decade and three in the last four years.
Had the heavens opened, Black Apalachi would have been a major contender even though he got no further than the second twelve months ago.
Dessie Hughes's ten-year-old showed that was no more than an aberration when landing the Becher Chase over Aintree's big fences last November so he should go well although maybe not well enough.
The decision to jock Dominic Elsworth off Darkness because connections had doubts over the rider's fitness following a recent injury has been the talk of the steamie for the last couple of days, especially as Elsworth yesterday booted home the opening winner El Dancer. This time tomorrow, though, he may be glad he wasn't aboard as Charlie Egerton's charge makes too many mistakes at his fences to fancy him as a possible winner, despite the form book suggesting he has a decent chance.
Having won the race twice in the past few years, Ruby Walsh obviously knows the special qualities a horse needs to land the National so the fact he's chosen My Will in preference to Southern Vic, trained by his father Ted for whom he landed the race on Papillon in 2000, or any of the other entries from champion trainer Paul Nicholls' powerful string, is significant.
"He has plenty of weight but he ran a cracker in the Gold Cup," said Walsh of his mount.
"I went for him because of the ground. He has had a tendency in the past to make the odd mistake, so we are hoping to eradicate that but I think he has a good chance. They go 100 miles per hour so it's important just to get over the first three fences. He has only had two runs this year and is lightly-raced so hopefully there is plenty left in the tank."
Scottish owned Brooklyn Brownie has shown he handles the Aintree obstacles so wouldn't be without a chance but if there is to be a northern winner, Rambling Minster could be the one.
Keith Reveley's charge would appear to be maturing with age and is one of the best handicapped horses in the field so he would have to be in the mix.
Of the rest L'Ami didn't do Mick Fitzgerald too many favours when crashing out early on last year but could sneak a place and as for Mr McCoy's mount Butler's Cabin, no thanks, although one of us must surely get it right one of these days.
