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Paddy Power:
SNP 1/3Labour 7/4
Wille Hill/Ladbrokes no more bets please.
Does the above article confirm the view of Professor Andrew Hughes Hallett ?
Scotland's growth performance tells the same story. She is a rich country with potential. Yet her average growth rates over the past 25 and 10 years have been 22% below the UK average; while the small countries in the EU have grown twice as fast on average over the same period. The opportunity cost of this in money terms is enormous, let alone in personal or cultural terms.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/misc/print.php?artid=1226635
This election is about Scotland's Oil and in the future Scotland's Fresh Water
If this story had come to a different "pro union" conclusion it would have been the lead in this excuse for a newspaper.
It is salutory to reflect that although Jock MacDonald is so dismissive of "this organisation" many of their Thatcherite policies were embraced by Bliar's government when they took office and some of them are still in place ten years later.
Joke said:"These are the people who caused mass destruction in Scotland in the 1980s."
Joke and his band of dopes, have tried to finish the job.It's time to go and take your feeble friends with you.
The Adam Smith Institute? Now where have I heard that name before? That's right, the people who brought you the Poll Tax!
The adam smith institute should not be dismissed. As an institute founded on the name of a great scot, labour are taking to degrading work based on one of the worlds greatest economists.
"These are the people who caused mass destruction in Scotland in the 1980s." And Labour has caused mass destruction since.
Well there are three things that are certainly not part of the Labour Party Manifesto: "...reduce taxes, cut spending and create a business friendly environment...".
With labour we have had increased taxes, out-of-control spending, and a business environment that is very friendly - if you contribute to the Labour Party coffers.
Don't worry folks, Labour will save us from the horrors of having the same growth rate as the rest of the UK, let alone Ireland. How could Scottish business and science possibly survive if that happened.
The Adam Smith institute did not bring us the poll tax! The Scots brought the poll tax on themselves due to thier gutless opposition to it! The leaders of that opposition were ofcourse the Labour Party!Those good English people by the strength of thier opposition to it brought the poll tax down! God Bless them! Ofcourse if you accept the proposition that the Adam Smith Institute did bring us the poll tax then ultimately they are responsible for bringing down Thatcher!
Great story.
As said on an earlier post it should have been the lead story.
Oil, Agriculture, whisky exports,seafood products.
Recreation and leisure. Not to mention science and technology. Is it any wonder the English, and their bedfellows are terrified, imagine a personal divorce where one individual may lose claim to so much.
Imagine an England without St Andrews golf course,Muirfield and Carnoustie.
C'mon Scotland it really is time..
We will bring The Open back to be played in Scotland - as it should be - every year and, fairs fair, let England keep Wimbledon. :)
I am still fairly sure if Margaret Thatcher was killed in Scotland - even now no jury would convict the guy caught standing over her with a smoking gun.
#14
A bit harsh on AM2. Although there is a huge amount of evidence regarding his numptiness there is no proof he is being paid.
Scotland could survive ALONE on her golf heritage and courses. Do you know St Andrews is booked solid 2 years in advance?
WOULD
Election Alert!!!
A sinister New Party has appeared on the scene.
Name - SNLA
Address - London, Middlesex MI6
Please alert others to their sinister methods of working.
Doonhammer my thoughts exactly - the man is a fool.
Jack McConnell -"These are the people who caused mass destruction in Scotland in the 1980s."
Yes and the Labour Party-aka "The Party of Poverty"-have been causing destruction in Scotland for the past two generations that they have been in power.
Just what do we have to show for these 50 years of Labour rule?
Well- in 2007 Scotland is the only country in Western Europe with a declining population-surely the most damning indictment on Labour, as our young people continue to leave and many of those left behind continue to die before their time in crime-ridden squalor.
Labour is responsible for creating a bloated public sector and has engendered the dependency culture and overseen a widening gulf between the rich and poor. Make no mistake the nation is dying a slow and tortuous death under these incompetents.
As for the Labour apologists who bombard these boards every day with their drivel and propaganda-you should bow your heads in shame!
Get Labour out!
Some of the key points the artical makes are "If an independent Scotland reduced taxes, cut spending and created a business-friendly environment..."
Now without any doubt _at all_ Labour do not do these things. Thats not even up for debate. However would the SNP? If yes, then I would slightly warm to them. If no, then I would not.
Well, it is certainly interesting to watch the Scotsman try to attack the SNP in a new way. Not too on the sly I must say. One at first gets the feeling that the Scotsman has actually published a pretty fair article, until one realizes that by sticking the SNP by implication of the argumentation and presentation of Jack McConnell’s commentary, in with the Tories, that the piece is actually a pro-New Labour bullhorn.
The trouble with McConnell's statements is that he is either exposing true ignorance to sound economic analysis by the Adam Smith Institute, or he is exposing his stupidity. Either way you cut it, the Adam Smith Institute is talking sense. Having a Bachelor's Degree in International Studies (includes trade and Economics) I can tell you that Brown has obviously never seriously studied neither a basic Macro-Economics course nor a Global Trade/ Economy Course. Either of those courses would have given him the power to analyse the Adam Smith Institute's analysis and realize they are 100% correct. When I was reading the analysis presented in the article, I was taken back immediately to Economics 112 and IB&M (International Business & Management) course Global Economy. If you lower the interest rates through monetary policy of your re-independent central banking system and taxes by virtue of your fiscal policy, the only possible out-come will be to increase investment, capital accumulation, and consumption as a result of your increase in new business starts and foreign direct investment (FDI). The only questions remaining, if one uses the U.S. Central Bank as a model, are how will you set interest rates to control inflation and how will you control unemployment? Scotland has long been a banking powerhouse and there is no reason that with sound fiscal and monetary policy management that it will not be again. Gordon Brown and New Labour are simply full of crap.
Vote SNP and you get to decide what your fiscal and monetary policy wi
The Adam Smith Institute...YES...The Adam Smith Institute...even tentatively agreeing with the SNP...and reckon we could increase growth over 5 years by 50%...Wow !! The election really IS done'n'dusted !!
(Get the votes out though...AND..... make sure they're counted properly.........JUST don't trust anyone other than the electorate)
#21 Salt Horse "Doonhammer my thoughts exactly - the man is a fool." And a buffoon.
It's Time!!!!
George Mathewson, Tom Farmer, Donald MacDonald, Professor Andrew Hughes Hallett and numerous eminent economic experts are not alone in recognizing that the current New Labour/Liberal Democrat administration have failed us miserably. Scotland desperately needs a jolt. One of the best things to have happened in the last 50 years is the independence debate which sets us all thinking and talking about the future, rather than dwelling on the past or whingeing about the present. The fact is there is something seriously screwed up with our economy, when roughly half of the working population are employed by the state and large chunks of the urban population are on state benefits of one kind or another. New Labour does not appear to understand that devolution as it is designed and practised is never going to be accepted by the Scots. They want us to simply accept and copy unquestionably the economic model they have adopted for England and they don't have any separate plans uniquely tailored for improving Scotland's economy to ensure that Scots may prosper and from that point of view they have not placed Scotland first. Gordon Brown of New Labour simply wants us to accept more of the same economic policies that he has tailored to keeping happy the speculators and financiers of Western Europe's most centralised economy based which is based in the City of London. For a while a sea of debt has managed to keep the UK financially afloat, now however due to these policies to suit the City of London, we have a poisonous mix of the ingredients of too much borrowing, too little saving, inflation, climbing interest rates, over-valued £, and increasing unemployment within the UK which are altogether going to ensure that this New Labour created artificial bubble is going to burst hitting the whole of the UK irrespective of whether they contributed to it or not. See analysis in http://business.guardia
It is no longer an economic argument! However, do the Scots actually have the courage to dispense with their perceived economic and political comfort blanket? Lachie Todd
"These are the people who caused mass destruction in Scotland in the 1980s."
What Mr McConnell fails to recognise is that Scotland, as part of the UK will always be at the mercy of the party which England elects, irrespective of who Scotland votes for. At the moment he is happy because it is New Labour, I can guarantee he will not be so content when Cameron's Conservatives are in power in a couple of years time.
Sounds great to me about lower taxes and a economic growth.
But i'm sure that I read somewhere that the SNP are intending to raise taxes which, if these economists are right, would actually dent economic growth.
its time to stand up have courage vote snp
#5 AM2
Come off it AM2!! The Adam Smith Institute are your political soul brothers. This reoprt must have come as a great shock to you :-)
#31 davieboy 144.You are wrong. The SNP have propsed lowering corporation tax in an independent Scotland. Unfortunately without independence thay cannot do that yet!
5. AM2. Hi. I am glad you seem to conclude that official figures concerning Scotlands economic performance such as GDP amongst others are obfuscated? If even you admit that then there is hope for everyone ;)
I would like to say that it is also possible for Scotland to be worse off overall after independendence, just depends on the policies and how well it is governed. However there is a great potential. Scotland is a rich country especially in resources. These resources are becoming relatively more valueable decade on decade and are a great base for a successfull economy.
The UK economy is 'tuned' or geared to support the finance sector. This is the model of positive dicrimination to the the SE at the expense of the Noth. Scotland can and needs its own model which is suited to its own structure and requirements.
Many finance and insurance sectors are fueled by the system of usury. Scotland otoh has much physical wealth. Overall I think it would take a government even more incompetant than McConnalls to screw up an independent Scotland.
33 Tom R
Don't think i am wrong. If people pay more tax in place A than they do in place B then they will, more often than not, chose to work in place B.
Therefore the people who we need to improve our economy, from eastern europe and other places, who have settled here and have chosen to make Scotland their home can easily move somewhere else.
Secondly, if the ordinary member of the public has less money in their pocket, they are less likely to spend it. you only have to look at towns & villages where there used to be heavy industry but are now in decline due to the fact that the inhabitants do not have the same spending power.
34 David MacVicar,
you say that Scotland needs its own model for its economy. Nothing wrong with that in principle, but do the SNP not want to join (over time) the Eurozone which in turn would give economic control to the ECB.
Do you honestly think that even wee Eck has the measure of these guys?
Hi DAVEsubSEA
Sorry you have AM-Squared here but I'm sure you'll scar him for life.
LA
I'd urge every Scot to view this - very enlightening...
http://youtube.com/watch?v=qHGfKggjTxE
...pass it on to your friends and family.
See through the Labour lies and spin Scotland.
SNP!
What I want to know is...How the Feck did this story make it into the (sic) Scotsman?
Shurely shome mishtake!
Rhiannon, you can collect your cards 1st thing Monday from Joke McConnell or Andrew Neill.
# 41 AM2
The most notable point about the FT report is that, based on current actual figures, as opposed to speculation about the future, it is very close to the SNP analysis of the current position and about a million miles away from that of Labour.
Marion, excellent post as usual. You are one of the most sensible regular posters on here.
I hope I haven't annoyed you by voting Green with my first vote. I think it is vital in this election that there is a strong Green voice (and I'm a Jambo!)
I did vote for Angela Constance with my 2nd though. Not only do I think it is time we saw what the SNP can do, I know from 10 years of her being a great Councillor that she will make an excellent constituency MSP (which is more than I can say for that muppet Muldoon who I haven't set eyes on in four years till he wants your vote again).
Roll on Thursday...can't wait for the only poll that counts. Hopefully as well as an Independence coalition, AM2 will crawl back under his lambeg drum for the next couple of years, at least!
Countries such as the Republic of Ireland have done well as an independent nation and so, there is no reason why Scotland can't do likewise.
As for concerns which are raised about the future of our relationship with England under independence, and the resulting cut-off of funding from England, I can point out that even 30 years of the Troubles in Northern Ireland have not prevented Britain and the Irish Republic from being close economic allies today. Therefore, there is no reason why Scotland and England can't continue to do likewise under an independent Scotland.
40. davieboy144.
Fair comment. I think the current position is to have a referendum on the Euro no? Therefore its the voters choice. However I think there is likely a split withing the SNP over Euroope model or Nordic Model or keeping Sterling.
The SNP will either disband or possibly be split over specific issues in an independent nation. We are still far away from that so not much point discussing that at this time imo as a lot can change in a decade for example. However monetary policy is only a part of economic policy. Scotland as a whole has no physical influence on anything at the moment.
# 45 Gill
Don't worry about it - I voted Green on my 1st vote and I'm a Hearts fan too!
Just hope my postal ballot doesn't end up in a skip somewhere...
44. Tom R. Good point.
I wonder why that might be? The SNP actually consult and do follow advise from the experts. Labour make up policy as they go along. Eg council tax rebanding,Gordon brown ripping off pesnsions despite best advise etc.
"Jack McConnell was dismissive of the work". Says it all really. Mr McConnal the ex public sector School teacher is dismissive of both Alex Salmond, ex private sector Oil economist and the findings of theAdam Smith Institute.
I'm with Jack - NOT!
41. AM2, Glasgow >>>Have you read the report? It's only two pages long; the link is above. If you do, you'll see that it discusses only GDP growth.<<< Might I suggest you read that report again yourself, in particular the third para second sentence, which states that Scottish GDP is based on GVA as there are no official figures for Scotland.
I quote: ""...GDP at market prices is not produced for Scotland due to the same difficulty of allocating taxes and subsidies below national level...""
As for your throw away line about 'Rump UK' @#5 your chum Royster and others have created a fuss more than once for suggesting that England will remain as 'Rump UK' with all that implies for retention of 'UK' assets and Treaties, EU Trident, Embassies, the military etc.
It is not just a few times that the point has been made by nationalist posters that Scotland does not secede from the UK.
When the Treaty of Union 1707 is dissolved then the UK reverts back to its former two signatory states, namely the Kingdom of Scotland and the Kingdom of England which in 1707 included Wales and Ireland annexed by Edward I and by the time of the Act of Union completely absorbed into England.
'Rump UK' is an exclusively Unionist term, unless you have links to show otherwise?
Hoist by your own petard AM.
You only serve to demonstrate your technique of misquotation and deliberate misrepresentation of facts and figures.
Getting sloppy, is this a sign of resignation to the inevitable?
I'm guessing your heart is no longer in this fight, are your strings being pulled from above?
AM2
Are you trying to tell us that we should believe that you and Joke Whats'isname have a better understanding of economics than The Adam Smith Institute? Joke couldn't even tell us how many houses are in Band H or Band A, or how the sums are supposed to add up on that whopper. And your qualifications are......?
At least you are right on one point. What you or I know about the Scottish economy is "nowhere near the full picture". The government have gone to a great deal of trouble to ensure that it is almost impossible to discover the "full picture" when it comes to the Scottish economy. That in itself tells you that they have something to hide, and it doesn't take much imagination to figure out what that something is. Do the words "McCrone Report" ring any bells? Do the words "buried in government vaults for 30 years" ring any bells? I'm sure that wee Joke, in his private moments, realises that perfectly well, hence his inability to sound confident when he is running down Scotland when he is doing "his Master's Voice" bit. Jim Mathers made it perfectly clear in interview the other day that SNP policy is to reduce taxation to a level that will make Scotland a viable competitor with her powerhouse neighbours. Seeing the need to do that and intending to do that are all that anyone can promise at the moment. Nothing in this life "continues indefinately into the future", including the centralising union which has made it possible for the likes of you to claim that Scotland is an economic basket case.
Anyone heard the latest on rumours of a Labour defection to the SNP?
46. John Sutherland, EdinburghFor half a century the newborn Irish State had to struggle against 'British' trade embargos to keep her out of the UK and the Commonwealth markets which had been over 90% of her customers before independence.
When the EEC welcomed the Irish in the early 70s and supplied the initial economic 'pump priming' that was the signal for the Celtic Tiger to awake.
Eire's economy and her population are set to grow larger than ours, from basicaly a standing start, in only a generation.
Don't hear so many jokes lately about the dumb Irish, the joke's on us these days.
Now what is it the Irish have got that we don't?
53. IainGlasgowI heard some time ago it was Union Joke but that would probably do both parties more harm than good.
The 'official' GDP figures are clearly fairy stories so the Adam Smith Institute is right to ignore them.
This is the truth - pity all Labour can do is tell more lies.
Scotland is as capable as any other country of being a success, it's obvious.
http://www.scottishindependence.com
#37
The point I am making is that the SNP plan to cut Corporation Tax initially from 28% to 20% in an independent Scotland. The chancellor will not let them do that as this is not a devolved power-yet again the lack of independence prevents the best economic policy being followed.
The rest of your analysys is fine, but the SNP are seeking to achieve the advantage you are talking about by indeed cutting taxes.
51. English Hammer of God, In your face
What's up, your missus not coming up with the goods in the 'bum loving' dept?
By cross dressing I take it you refer to the tradition of the wearing of the feileadhbeag (kilt to you)?
Again I'd suggest you consider the opinion of your womenfolk.When I wear mine, particularly in England, I'm guaranteed women will give me more attention than you, and I'm no Brad Pitt.
btw I haven't seen much evidence of English Hammering anything lately, never mind God.
59. AM2, GlasgowYou defeat your own arguement.The Adam Smith report directly quotes the Government's own Scottish report.#5""...Official GDP figures:http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Econo...>>>What is GVA?There are two measures of GDP, market prices and basic prices. The estimates produced here are measured in basic prices, which excludes taxes less subsidies on products (taxes on products include VAT and excise duties). Gross Value Added (GVA) is another term for GDP at basic prices.
GDP at market prices is the headline measure used by the UK but they also produce estimates of GVA for their industry breakdown as it is difficult to break down taxes and subsidies below whole economy level. ***GDP at market prices is not produced for Scotland due to the same difficulty of allocating taxes and subsidies below national level.***
All UK figures included in this website refer to GDP at basic prices (or GVA) for comparability. UK figures are taken from the ONS' month 3 GDP publication "Quarterly National Accounts 4th quarter 2006" published on 28 March 2007.<<<...""Point to me, I think.
"If an independent Scotland reduced taxes, cut spending and created a business-friendly environment, the country's growth rate over a five-year period could move from 4.7 per cent to Ireland's 7 per cent, he said."
Firstly the Scotsman have made a rather serious misprint. They probably mean currect growth is 1.7%.
This is almost exactly what the 9% Growth party have been saying (though we say that building enough inexpensive new nuclear can push it up to 9%) & indeed what I was expelled from the LibDems for saying. However if we get the setting of corporation tax rates devloved to us & I see no reason why we can't, then we can do all this with or without separation.
Equally we might get separation & a government supported by the Greens & S&SSP - a scenario for which the word "desperate" would be inadequate.
If the 9% Growth Party do not do well in Glasgow it is that much more likely that the SNP activists will be able to pull them in a leftward direction.
#57 AM2
I acknowledge your goodself as the king of the spinners on these baords :-) -as I am sure many others will agree.
I think your point about GERS simply confirms how distant the Labour spin (do they do anything other than spin) is from reality.
Therefore without even bothering to correct the many mistakes of GERS (most of which if corrected make the Scottish position better), the FT is saying that Scotland is in a substantially better economic financial position than the UK as a whole.
You cannot tell me that is the case that Labour have been portraying to the Scots.
61. AM2, GlasgowOK try some of these.
The first is Royster getting shot to bits for using it.
http://www.scottishindependenceconvention.com/Myths.aspScotland on Sunday - Treasury delivers £400m blow to SNP tax plans Rump UK/England will be the successor state and Scotland will have to reapply. ... As Rump UK has...
scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=145522007
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=145522007Scotland Europa: independence in Europe? be the rump UK, not Scotland, that would inherit membership of the EU. Scotland’s sub-. sequent...
www.cer.org.uk/pdf/cerwp2.pdf
http://www.cer.org.uk/pdf/cerwp2.pdfJSTOR: Independence: In or out of Europe? An Independent Scotland .... The rest of the United Kingdom has a population of 53.87 million, over ten times greater.59 The...
links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0020-5893(200001)49%3A1%3C15%3AIIOOOE%3E2.0.CO%3B...
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0020-5893(200001)49%3A1%3C15%3AIIOOOE%3E2.0.CO%3B2-OThe Scotsman - Former MSP risks ire with independence 'steps... On independence all taxes and tax rates would inherited from the rump UK but would be paid to the...
thescotsman.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1414232006
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1414232006The Scotsman - Doubts over automatic EU entry for an independent ..... In the event of Scottish independence, rump UK will inherit the current UK's rights ......
t
#AM2
Scotland can learn a great deal from Ireland. Obviously first mover advantage can be beneficial but it is not the ultimate advantage.
As my late mother from Cork said to my late father from Kirkcudbright, if Ireland can do what it has done without oil, why on earth can Scotland not do even better?
#42 (LA) I was thinking the same as you -Thanks Davesubsea.
LOL
Of course it *could* but in reality, the SNP won't be able to resist ever more spending. We seem to have no low tax business friendly party in Scotland at all.
#66. AM2Obfuscate? hey man this is your own argument fired straight back at you.Does this sound familiar?>>>#5. AM2, Glasgow / 12:58am 28 Apr 2007 Jack McConnell is wrong to dismiss the Adam Smith Institute out of hand, ***but this report does appear to be flawed.***
For example, rather than using official GDP figures for Scotland, it says at one point "the absence of official GDP levels for Scotland makes this a somewhat difficult calculation."<<<The 'official GDP figures for Scotland' have the very same caviat and its in the very link you posted to back your case.
If you're in a hole, why keep digging?
btw GDP figures are assumed fron GVA which are taken to be about75% of GDP for most practical purposes.
There is no point debating the finer points of economics, not getting into tangles over methodologies. There is a point to debating as follows:
Is, broadly speaking, the Adam Institute's report correct? Will Scotland be more competitive and richer? Or not.
Secondly, forget the supply and demand of oil and its relative pricing over the past decades and concentrate on this: What there is left is valuable and now is the time to reap what we can from it as a soveriegn nation, for if we don't, 20 years hence we'll have missed billions? Or not
Thirdly: Are we less able than prosperous nations like Norway to build up our own indigenous industries and talents like they have? Yes or no?
It is time now, to kick-start the process of looking forward to building our future as opposed to managing the legacies of a slow, uneconomic and burdensome past. The Union worked well when the UK was the powerhouse of the world, it is no longer that and the world has changed dramatically since. I fear the UK's outlook is one of aggression and dominance rather than co-operation and organic growth. I feel very, very strongly an independent Scotland would not only thrive but transform itself into a modern, forward looking and much healthier mixed economy.
I am not voting to give Labout a kicking, I am voting for positivity and progress. I want us to be given the chance to step out of the past and into a great future -with all the excitement and challenge that will bring, it will surely bring the best out of the Scottish character.
74. SeriouslyAmused Second that!
77. AM2, GlasgowImpass, that's the same as ok I gi'e up?;-)
77. AM2, Glasgow
Don't know about the Salmond interview I missed that one, but the Scotsman Business pages uses it.
Contributions posted by AM-Squared = 3,826.Number of folk pursuaded to his point of view = Minus One.
(Wee Hector said okay but then had to go home for his dinner.)
Apparently a poll for one of the sunday papers will show the SNP and Labour neck and neck.
The ASI report is clearly substantially correct but independence is not a requirement.
Dougie 72 - we have, but I admit only in Glasgow, not Edinburgh.
Unfortunately it gets virtually no media coverage (except online) even from the nominally economicallyaware scotsman.
Perhaps next time, if there are people willing to support it, there will be.
AM2 “Even with oil Scotland is running a deficit”
Many contest this argument and contest it strongly.
If however it iwere correct. How can a small country of 5 million with the lottery win of Oil in the last 30 years currently be running a deficit unless it has been mind numbingly, shockingly mismanaged? Mismanaged to the point of criminality even?
Where has all the reinvestment gone, where is our oil fund, where is the reinvestment in the oil sector iteslf that the refineries and oil companies are saying is sadly lacking?
AM2 is a collection of Labour Party automatons, hence the 24hr posting. Might as well read Pravda.
82: You mean they're making the results up now?
88 AM2.
I repeat, how did we get into this situation already. You want a remedy, therre may be many. I was focusing on th elong term cause. Prevention is as they say better than cure.
#84
Yes it implies gross mismanagement of the scale that makes Enron look like pinching a few pic 'n' mix sweets and a can of ginger in Woolworths. It makes cash for honours look like giving the waiter a gratuity to get your order taken before a customer who was seated before you.
Unfortuntely while those involved in the Enron scandal thought they were beyond the law, for all practical purposes at least those involved in the North Sea oil scandal ARE beyond the law. A public enquiry into it is long overdue.
Norway - Petroleum Fund = USD307 billionScotland - Petroleum Fund = Zero
Norway - Independence from Sweden - 1905Scotland - UK Union/controlled from London - 1707
Let the facts speak.
#55
Rumour was its an MP not an MSP. Also possibly more than one.
#93
Scotland, Wales, Ulster UK regions?
How many legal jurisdictions are there in the UK?
How would you describe England?
#88 AM
You are gibbering nonsense. You are spouting figures from the discredited GERS analysis.
The ludicrous claim that Scotland's GDP is running at 51% is largely on the laughable basis that the economic activity of the oil/gas fields - in internationally-recognised Scottish legal territory - of the UK's "Extra Regio Territories" has nothing whatsoever to do with Scotland's economy.
So the GDP (or the GVA figure if you prefer as Scotland doesn't have a official GDP figure anyway) which GERS have estimated for Scotland leaves out oil/gas revenues from their "Scottish" revenue total.
Hence the GERS authors estimate of "Public spending is 51% of Scotland's GDP" is actually a serious overestimate. Wouldn't you think so?
You do realise for the last fiscal year where we have figures from the Office of National Statistics that GVA that the revenue from the "Extra Regio Territories" was £23.46 billion. Source:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_economy/Regi...
As the "Extra Regio" GVA mostly covers the economic activity of what is happening on the UK's Continental Shelf as the following Hansard source shows:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmhansr...
For your own information if we actually began the addition of SCotland's share of the Extra Regio revenues into the calculations this would mean that the size of the Scottish state relative to the national wealth is well below the GERS "51%" figure.
So isn't that something!
Today's Telegraph Teasers...
When will Scotland realise that many of we English want rid of that sponging economy ( and Wales and Ulster while we are at it) ? I am tired of paying for freeloading Scottish Labour MP's which are like an occupying army in England. I am tired too of paying for nursing home fees for you Scots whilst my late Mum and I had to pay the lot for her in England.
I am hoping ( and praying too) that Alex Salmond does well and that in due course a referendum takes Scotland independent. You are like 'boomerang kids' - you will not leave home because of the financial support and warmth of living under an English roof !
Posted by Mike on April 28, 2007 9:46 AM
Any Englishman who supports the Union can only be considered a traitor. It's about time that we started to put our own interests first instead of the interests of a bunch of lazy, freeloading Scots.Posted by Jeremy Lawton on April 28, 2007 9:49 AM
#97
Amen to that but I was rather hoping you would take those labourites off our hands after we become independent in exchange we'll make you feel at home and pamper you if you ever want to come and visit.
You don't have to feed them or anything like that, just find some space round about Picadilly Circus and give them a polystyrene cup each. Alternatively if you're still helping the Americans in Iraq send them over there so they can reap what they've sown.
#93 AM
Don't make me laugh. It is quite obvious that you are basing this on the stats from the Office of National Statistics:
As you can see above is that the Extra Regio revenues are NOT allocated to any set country/region in the UK.
A question also relating to this was also answered in the Scottish Parliament:
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/business/pqa/wa-04/wa03...
Mr Jim Wallace: “The UK weight for the oil and gas sector covers the whole sector, including extraction. The Scottish weight for oil and gas only covers the part of the sector related to "service activities incidental to oil and gas extraction excluding surveying".
As the extraction of oil and gas occurs on the continental shelf, under EU directions it is classified as extra regio and treated as a separate region of the UK. Extraction of oil and gas is therefore included in the UK GDP figures but not in the GDP figures for any of the 12 regions of the UK.”
So, to really SPELL it out for you, for the Scottish GVA accounts North Sea Oil is NOT allocated to Scotland but to the UK.
You do realise if 80% of the Extra Regio GVA was applied to Scotland (which is quite reasonable as independent academic analysis has confirmed) then that would take Scotland's GVA per head to around £20,472 for the year 2005.
As the average GVA per head of population for the UK as a whole was £17,700 in 2005, that would actually mean that Scotland was actually a net contributer to the Exchequer, and would only be behind London per capita as the most productive region. But as a country, Scotland would actually have a higher GVA per capita than even England.
So what were you saying?
Why is everybody here getting all het up about independence? The plain fact is it's not going to happen, even if the SNP miraculously gets 65 seats on Thursday. I predict the following: Labour will get just enough to form a coalition with the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems price will be Jack McConnell's resignation. He will duly resign and be replaced by somebody more able. The new FM will adopt a "nationalist" agenda in order to distance him/herslef from "London Labour".
92 AM2. Actually you are right gross mismanagement is not the likely explanation, can any government really be that badly managed? Its only part of the equation.
The figures can only really point to revenue genereated in Scotland being taken OUT of said economy. I wonder where it all went?
58 tam R
If you're saying that cutting taxes for businesses and raising taxes for working people is OK then good on you.
Personally I think that it stinks
"As the average GVA per head of population for the UK as a whole was £17,700 in 2005, that would actually mean that Scotland was actually a net contributer to the Exchequer, and would only be behind London per capita as the most productive region. But as a country, Scotland would actually have a higher GVA per capita than even England."
Ken Livingston Mayor of London said words to that effect only a few weeks ago. He didn't bring numbers into it but he did say that given North Sea Oil the UK is infact propped up by London and Scotland. I wonder if he's preparing the ground for London to become independent too.
"The paper claimed that a further five years of Scottish growth at that level, and before diminishing returns set in, would lead to a more than two-thirds increase in GDP. Mr Stein said that by contrast the rest of the UK would grow by just over one-quarter. However, Jack McConnell was dismissive of the work."
Oh well, that's that then - any doubt in my mind has now disappeared - clearly Joke McCon-nemall is far better qualified to comment on how growth is to be achieved.
The Adam Smith Institute not only produced reports for Mrs T that Labour didn't like, they also produced "Shedding a Tier" that led to the aboloition of one tier of Local Government in the 1990s - will Joke McCon-nemall see that as ruinous as well and go back to the Regions and Districts?
The sooner this sniping is over the better - labour look for all the world like the aged boxer cowering in the corner with the new champion just about to deliver the knock out blow. That blow is coming, and it's coming from the electorate on Thursday.
I have tried to resist attacking AM2 and the others but my resistance has weakened now. Frankly, the independence question should NOT be about money. It should be about freedom, self respect and dignity. If the UK is such a glorious institution, worth its weight in gold to the participants, where are the other countries wanting to join it? If it is all about money, I suggest AM2 and the others head off to the Good Ole US of A where their values will clearly be more akin to their new countrymen, and they can get on with planning their economic dominance.
Away and invade a small country, there's a good unionist. This one doesn't want you any more.
GB
#103
The argument is that cutting business tax is self-financing and removes the need for increase in personal taxation. In cutting business tax you also stimulate economic growth which means more jobs and lower unemployment. Remove "daytime chatshow fan" from the list of medical conditions that qualify for incapacity benefit and your home and dry and well on the way to full employment :)
"The Adam Smith Institute not only produced reports for Mrs T that Labour didn't like, they also produced "Shedding a Tier" that led to the aboloition of one tier of Local Government in the 1990s - will Joke McCon-nemall see that as ruinous as well and go back to the Regions and Districts?"
Well it would in theory create more cushy jobs for labour councillors.
91. IainGlasgow. Some nice imagery but only highlights how docile and gullible we Scots are a nation actually are. I cant imagine any other European nation falling for the same crap and for such a long a period as we have.
The Scots are the exception to the rule "you cant fool all of the people all of the time", or at least we have been the exception of the rule until now.
LORD PRTECT US, WE PRAY, FROM A MORE PROSPEROUS SCOTLAND.
MAKE US BLIND TO THE ACCURSED TITLE snp ON OUR BALLOT PAPERS.
Just making sure God's listening ;-)
You and the rest of the minority continue to clutch at straws Alan. The rest of us will hope and pray for a resounding SNP victory.
The Chancellor stated that the Barnett formula gives Scotland £30 wheras the oil revenue is £11 billion. Even with his famously skewed sums he still has to lose £19 billion to make it an even split. It would mean an end to a lot of freebies that Scotland presently enjoys but all god things comt to an end. Both of us would lose the Labour party (no bad thing). All in all it's time to wave goodbye to the union.
Oh, you still haven't come up with a credible argument for the union or against independence yet, despite harping on repeatedly on this subject and despite repeated claims for you to do so.
Well?Posted by Steve Ipswich on April 28, 2007 12:47
#103 davieboy
You persist in missing the point. The logic of cutting corporation taxes is to generate more economic activity so that lower tax rates results in a higher tax take by the government. More money is then available for redistribution.
#41 AM2 said:"So while, except for its apparent ignorance of Scottish GDP statistics, I can't fault the Adam Smith report's numbers, it is clear that they have been calculated without reference to other very relevant factors."
Just want to remind you that it's what we don't see that fools us. No doubt you'll get the point and perhaps recognise further deceit by the SNP.
84 David McVicar. Excellent point David. These try to have it both ways and in effect shoot each other in the foot. How could a country, Oil and Gas rich for 30 years have a deficit? Does Norway have a deficit? Absolutely not.
Dirty tricks: I said in the Herald a few days ago to watch out for dirty tricks over the weekend and on Monday/Tuesday. One of the dirtiest, has already surfaced but won't have anything like the negative effect it had in the 70s, even then it wasn't phenomenal.
The other is this 'rumoured' poll purporting to show the SNP and Labour running neck and neck. Oh really?
A poll yesterday shows the SNP 9 points ahead and by Sunday they have dropped back level? Do they think we are all as stupid as they are? The electorate is more sophisticated even than 4 years ago and will not be deceived by a phoney poll like that, if it's true that is.
The SNP are ahead because the public like their policies and see Alex Salmond as an independent thinker with an excellent backroom team to back him up.
For those reasons the SNP will win on Thursday. It really is Time, this time.
Livilion (50), Just started reading todays issue. Enjoying the posts. Don't want to sound pedantic but just want to correct e small error in (50). You state that Wales and Ireland were "completely absorbed into England" by the time of the Treaty of Union in 1707. In fact, the Kingdoms of Scotland and England were united into the new Kingdom of Great Britain in 1707. The Kingdom of Ireland with its own House of Commons and House of Lords continued to exist until the Act of Union created the new United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland on January 1, 1801. This kingdom ceased to exist in December 1922. The beautiful Old Parliament House is now the HQ of the Bank of Ireland and the House of Lords is open to the public. It's opposite Trinity College, on College Green in central Dublin. Check it out athttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Houses_of_Parliament
Keep up the good work.
106 Iainglasgow,
If you want to decrease the need for personal taxation, then why are the SNP proposing to raise it by 3p per £.
111 TomR
I fully understand the point you and iain are trying to make but I feel that your rationale is flawed.
You just dont cut corporation tax and expect everything to turn out rosy. You also need people in to make the economy work. In this day and age that means immigration due to our ageing population and I dont think that taxing them 3p per £ pound more than our nearest neighbour is going to attract them as the vast majority of these people are economic migrants.
116 Doonhamer. Great post, thanks for making me aware of this info.
It seems that the SNP is estimating on the side of caution. With a clear investment in the Oil and Gas sector Scotland can have the double whammy of a smallish (in comparison with Norway) oil fund plus a strong leader in oil extraction from deep and difficult waters, which will be more in demand around the world. All that is required is that we "carpe diem"and start controlling our own destiny.
AM squared
Well, since you bring it up, I noticed that you posted yesterday (twice):
WE ARE BETTER OFF IN BRITAIN!
(your capitals)
The use of the plural personal pronoun seemed curious to me ...
... just exactly who are "WE" in the above phrase?
To which collective does it refer?
Give us a wee clue, like, for example: Do you all wear bowler hats?
Awa' yersel tae britain, it's the best place fur ye!
#20 - frank mcbride
Aye, I saw that item on the BBC.
It was always going to come of course, and now, with four days to go and the onionist's boat leaking all over the place, ... guess who/what rears its ugly head?
Funny coincidence, isn't it ...
... NOT!!!!
Re:118. AM2.AM is trying to justify extortion, lies, obfuscation and theft. That is the only way it cuts.Trying to debunk a trusim does not make it false. Only a organisations or individuals lacking in morality adhere to such arguments.
The McCrone report is just the tip of an iceberg of falsification of publised information. The report was kept out of the public domain. Government spokesmen and politicians lied knowing the info of this report. If you have killed someone 30 years ago you are still a murderer.Facts of about the state of revenues were hidden or just plain ommited from gneral circulation.The late 70s and 80s talked of "visible earnings" this has since metastasized into GERS.Clearly as mentioned by Doonhamer ans as any reasonable person can see the lies are still continuing - chanpioned by Blair, Brown and the rest.
"extremely selfish". Yes I have seen this before. Not selfish just some self interest, something Westminster knows very well. Keeping the report and most of all the significance of the report was certainly extremely selfish and done purely to deprive a nation of its resources for the benefit of another.
"was classified as secret according to standard practice because of the sensitivity of the subject."The standard practice being extortion and lies.
We Scots truly are a nation of numpties. This info has came to light and people carry on as if nothing has happened saying "but oil will run out eventually."Yes it will, but the extortion and lies from Westminster is a renewable energy where each and every government keeps output at 100%.
#121
This is to replace the council tax so its only a tax raise for high earners. Someone on an average income living in a band D house currently pays 5-6% of their income for council tax and would need to have an income of about £40k to pay more under the SNP and I calculated that without accounting for tax allowances.
Your argument would only hold if the SNP planned to retain the current council tax.
I personally stand to save £600 a year from the SNP's policy.
#120 AM2Your 'shortfall' arguement is flawed as it would lead me to the conclusion that Iceland, Ireland, and Singapore, with smaller populations than Scotland and no oil and gas reserves, should have gone bust years ago!
a) Gordon Brown has to 'borrow' which suggest a 'shortfall' does it not?
He inherited £20 billion surplus in 1997, from the Tories, and turned it into a deficit. If there's no 'shortfall' then there's no need to borrow - correct?
b) Thanks to the genius of the Labour Party in the seventies Britain had to be bailed out by the IMF - which is something that normally happens to screwed up African nations. Who are Labour to preach to the rest of us about 'shortfall'.
Please Note:1) Singapore has cut its corporation tax from 26% to 18% over the last ten years. As far as I know there is no 'shortfall'.
2) In 2006 their economy, without oil and gas reserves grew 6%. Any 'shortfall'?
3) Singapore's GIC, the Government Investment Corporation, has a fund of £50 billion to invest around the globe. Any 'shortfall'?
4) Every financial year the Singapore government never 'borrows' like Gordon Brown, as it ends the year in surplus.
5) Singapore actually loans money to the US government - some of this wealth is invested into its 5 star infrastructure. Any 'shortfall'?
The 'shortfall' arguement is by far the most devious arguement of all in my opinion.
It fails to anticipate or predict or measure the migration of foreign capital or investment into the low tax regimes around the world.
The movement of money/capital/foreign investment around the world is 'invisible' but very real and has sustained Singapore's economy for 40 years.
Story continues...
Independence could fuel record growth in immigration out of Scotland.
Buckfast?
and of course the number of neds in politics...
McConnell today, '...fighting for Scotland...'
What an absolute ******* weasel.
See through the continued Labour lies and spin Scotland.
So which is it? Independance will destroy Scotland according to some scientists and business people or it will succeed according to a think tank.
That means noody knows, somebody is lying and either way we are focached!
I read today that the bint who runs yon Ultimo jug holder company will leave Scotland if it becomes independant. Better pack yer bags then lass,plenty other jug holding companies we can make use of............
BREAKING NEWS....
SUNDAY HERALD COMES OUT FOR THE SNP
http://www.sundayherald.com/oped/opinion/display.var.1362...
This is a true sea change in the Scottish political landscape.
Scotland 1, 2 and 3...
...no more of the gutless Lab-Lib 'no-change' scenario.
Scotland - it's 2007!
DO NOT believe the Labour scaremongering!
Give the Scottish kids a chance! Vote SNP 1, 2 and 3...
...after four years you have *another* choice - but for now, we cannot criticise what we have not tried out!
Labour *can* be criticised on it's appaling record thus far!
And enough of this 'extremist' or 'anti-Scottish' nonsense!
Labour = Scottish votersSNP = Scottish voters
Labour = policies for the larger British stateSNP = policies for Scotland
It's really that simple.
Even the *Tories* now admit that Scotland can easily go it alone - of course we can. What makes us so different to the other, smaller nations in Europe?
You really have to understand how to see through the Labour spin - and mark me on this, England will only take so much more of 'devolution'. Indeed, they are all too aware that we 'have it too good' . Consider your wasted Labour vote next to the FACT that a Tory govt. will soon be sitting in England.
Ask yourself:
A/ Scottish reasons for staying in the union?- eh, Iraq?- Cash for honours?- Pensions wreck?- Disgusted trade unions?- Increasingly low-school rating cards?- Labour's 'Faslane spin?'- Ripping the heart out our regiments- Labour's foretold Al Qaeda attack?- Labour's 'Social ties between Scotland and England dissolving?'- Labour's 'The 'Balkanisation' of the UK?- Labour's Govan poverty?- Reiterated, tired pledges?- Phoney party political broadcasts with ex-Labour officials?- *Alarming* control of the mass media in Scotland??- The absolute stagnant economic position after eight-years of Lab-Lib govt.?
B/ 'British' reasons for **wanting** Scotland in the union?
- Land- Space- Resources (esp. water)- Environmental futures
C/ Sc
132 - ERIC
Many thanks for the link.
A well written, thoughful article. It offers alot to think about.
Unlike our own BEATUP who scoffed at my suggestion poverty and material deprivation existed in rural and city areas extant from the fifties, the SH tells us many areas a "blighted" and have remained so in spite of successive Labour rule.
If I read the leader accurately, the SH considers a coalition as the most likely outcome of the election and the most desirable - a suggestion we know AM-Squared will seize upon in an effort to portray SH's support as lukewarm.
Here's to better government!
The ASI report also said after 10 years of independence, household incomes in Scotland could out perform the UK average by as much as £6,000.
By contrast the briefing stated that UK growth rates would be less impressive.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/6602117.stm
#117 AM
Apologies for the belated response but due to the site being down I couldn't get to you earlier. Here I go:
“Discredited. Sure. The people quoted in post 76, Labour, the LibDems and the Tories are all liars. Look - the GERS methodology is in the public domain. Almost nobody except the SNP has criticised it in any way. How can that constitute it being "discredited"?”
You are actually AWARE that both the Labour and the Lib Dems are the two parties LEADING the present Scottish Executive while the Tories are the party that ORGINATED the annual GERS reports the first place!
And you THINK that the unionist parties would say something totally different?
Sheesh!
Sorry, but you are also in a dream world on your “basis” that almost nobody has criticised GERS. I refer you to Andrew Hughes Hallet who has been quite vocal on the whole methodology that underlie GERS.
If he is not enough for you, here are another few quotes for your list:
‘I am disappointed that both you and the Chancellor have reservations about publishing the booklet I have had prepared and printed setting out the details of the government’s expenditure and revenue in Scotland. I judge that it is just what is needed at present in our campaign to maintain the initiative and undermine the other parties. This initiative could score against all of them'. Secretary of State for Scotland, Ian Lang, in a letter to the Prime Minister dated March 3, 1992.
‘Caution should be applied in the interpretation of the fiscal deficit. This is the difference between two large numbers, both of which are estimates and subject to large margins of error’. Dr John Rigg, Scottish Office Senior Economist, Autumn 1996.
‘The SNP claims the Scottish Office figures are distorted. The party has a point.’ The Economist, 26th October 1996.
‘Nationalists have a point when they allege the whole GERS exercise was designed to engender fear’. Alf Young, The Heral
It was always obvious why all the stops were being pulled to keep Scotland in the union and we all knew it wasn't for their love of Scotland and her people.#135 cam3.
Spot on with your comments and a very accurate desciption of the level of corruption there is or was in UK politics. Scotland will rise well above that and I for one have every confidence in the SNP. And by the looks of it so does the country so lets all make it happen on Thursday. Do the right thing for our old , our sick, our young and yes the unemployed . Improve our health service , the police , the criminal justice system . A comment regarding the pro UK or anti Scottish remarks from a few on here . Soon the people south of the border will realise just who was subsidising who as within a month of the Scottish election result you will see the Bank of England pushing up interest rates on the premise that soon they will have a massive black hole of 12.5 billion in oil revenues alone.. In contrast , our nurses and doctors will feel more at ease in a free Scotland where they will be allowed to do what they do best and that is to adminester care in clean , well equiped hospitals. I am 52 and have voted labour all my working life thinking that when the new parliament came into being they would push Scotlands case . Sadly, I was wrong and for my children and granchildren and for the only possible way forward for Scotland I will proudly vote for the SNP on Thurday. We must grasp this opportunity of the first step towards a free and independent Scotland.
It's time !!
**“Well, that would be ludicrous and laughable. If it was true.”**
Of course it is true!
Pray tell why the economic activity in the UK Continental Shelf - which is under the jurisdiction of Scottish law - is not allocated by the government statisticians to Scotland? Why is that a whole area, which is clearly recognised as Scottish by the international courts, not have the revenues GENERATED there allocated to Scotland? Could it be, perchance, that most of the oil fields lie there?
This, despite the fact that IF there is any criminal act on an oil or gas rig comes this comes within the remit of the Scottish legal system. Any arrests are by the Scottish police, the charges are made by the Procurators Fiscal and the cases dealt with in the Scottish courts. If convicted, criminals are incarcerated in Scottish Prisons.
You must also be aware that the public inquiry into the events of Piper Alpha was also carried out under the auspices of Scottish law and presided by the Scottish judge, Lord Cullen.
So why are the revenues accrued in this whole area not classed as being Scottish then, but BRITISH?
**"Go here. Search the page for the phrase "Scottish GDP including relevant proportion of oil output."**
And your point is? Despite the inclusion of the above in their analysis it is always omitted from their “official” figures on the “basis“ that it isn‘t “Scottish” anyway but a BRITISH resource.
Hence, the £11.2 billion figure which has been trotted out by yours truly for quite a while now.
**“Erm, no! But even if I did, what would tax revenues be as a proportion of GDP? Lower than 39%, right?”**
Well around that, yes.
AM, perhaps you should read the most excellent article by Peter Jones for this very own newspaper. He has ably shown that the unionist picture of the Scottish GDP is based on a load of bollocks and has been seriously downplayed by the Executive. So here you go
when i was avery young man i was a member of the one million penny drive by the snp elmbank st glasgow the scots did not listen then what makes you think they will now all the years it was the same old story my familly allways voted labour i have never voted anything else they are all dollys and like sheep they follow i wish as a people they would stand up for themselves better to die on your feet than live on your knees as for the election good luck with that
alex moore you are flogging a dead sheep the the so called scots would rather take hand outs from their english masters than do somthing for themselves try for change good luck with that
I don't see why we couldn't be as sucessful as Ireland, we are a slightly bigger country, more natural resources, and a healthy tourist industry. Even if it weren't the case surely you can't put a price on national pride? I doubt if you asked Nelson Mandela if he wanted to give up the notion of freedom and equality for an extra fiver in his pocket he'd say yes.
Also independence will cure dandruff & make the weather warmer (or colder if that is now the prefered option).
#141Well said and could not agree more. I have long worried about the state of our communities going downhill fast under Labour, crime on the increase, scarecrow policing with no visible presence, poor housing services and poverty increasing year on year in Scotland. We owe it to our grandkids to make the right decisions on 3rd May and for those that have voted Labour all their days think about it - this lot of chancers currently foisted onto the Scottish people were never what Labour traditionally stood for. Keir Hardie must be turning in his grave. It really is time, you are voting for the future of Scotland NOT the future of the Labour Party.
Labour stoops to new lowElection fraud uncovered, and reported to policeLondon times articlehttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1719968.ece
