POLITICIANS are generally far more interested in keeping food prices low than the longer-term issue of security of supply.
A report by Lionel Colby, a leading meat industry consultant, highlights salient issues that will require attention if beef production is not to decline further.
Colby's annual report has tracked production since 1980, and 1984 appears to have
marked a crucial turning point in the industry with the introduction of EU milk quotas. At the beginning of the 1980s the dairy herd was by far the major source of beef, as suckler cows represented only 28 per cent of all cow numbers.
Beef cow numbers steadily increased between 1987 and 1998, largely as a result of the Common Agricultural Policy and a direct linkage between support and production levels, but the overall number of calves born still continued to decline as the dairy herd contracted.
Colby says: "By 1995 self-sufficiency reached its peak of 98 per cent as beef and veal exports almost exactly matched imports. This reflected the strong export performance during the early 1990s of both cow and prime beef, with the development of markets helped by a weak pound."
The 1996 BSE crisis, then the foot-and-mouth epidemic of 2001 devastated the sector, bringing self-sufficiency to an all-time low of
58 per cent.
But better times returned both in terms of ex-farm prices and overall supply. In November 2005 beef from cattle aged over 30 months, but born after 1 August 1996, was once more permitted to enter the food chain. This move resulted in self-sufficiency rising to 67 per cent.
Despite the fact that producer prices are currently at record levels profits remain marginal, according to Colby. He said: "From 1980 until the end of 2004 the beef industry benefited from direct production support, including intervention and various headage payments in addition to the suckler cow premium.
"However, 2005 began a new era with the end of coupled support and the switch to the single farm payment. Most cattle producers are no longer covering their costs and the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board meat services forecasts that the recent decline in beef cow numbers will continue. Dairy cow numbers will also fall and so a further reduction in self-sufficiency can be anticipated in the medium-term."
The politicians may assume that if UK production continues to fall it will be possible to replace the shortfall with imported product. But there are no great surpluses of beef anywhere in the world. There has been a major decline in output in Argentina and some commentators have even suggested that before long that country may have to import beef to satisfy domestic demand.
Imports of beef from Brazil to the EU are subject to a near-total ban based on concerns over foot-and-mouth and traceability. Imports from the US are also mostly prohibited because large feed lots use growth promoting hormones - a practice which is outlawed throughout the EU.
The irony remains that beef output and cow numbers in France are on the increase, largely because the French government has retained a direct link between support and production. Some commentators have suggested that beef production in the UK can only be revived through the reintroduction of some direct support, possibly a payment on every breeding female. This, however, appears an unlikely prospect and could well be opposed by farming organisations.
The full article contains 579 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
