Running game offers Scotland glimmer of hope

Attacking with power and guile could upset England

CLICHES exist largely because of their veracity, and when the Calcutta Cup comes around the old adage that "form goes out of the window" becomes a popular, if hopeful mantra across Scotland.

But the truth of the matter in recent times is that form does count. The habitual favourites, England, have won 17 clashes in the last 20 years. Brian Ashton's team may feature seven newcomers to the Calcutta Cup, but because of form they still carry the favourites tag into today's 125th meeting of the great rivals. England have beaten Italy and France while the home side have suffered successive defeats by the French, Welsh and Irish.

We can hark back to the fact Will Carling's men were favourites before they were humbled in 1990, that Matt Dawson led a rampant England team to Murrayfield in 2000 before he too was left brilliantly shocked and stunned by a stirring Scots uprising, and Martin Corry's Grand Slam hopes were left in tatters, strewn across the Murrayfield turf two years ago, but this only serves to show that it is possible for the underdog to emerge triumphant.

Sticking with the present, Scotland have struggled to hold on to the ball long enough to muster no more than a handful of threatening attacks in the 2008 championship, resulting in just a solitary try, while Ashton's men have scored five, even though they have not fired on all cylinders in attack yet either. So, not much inspirational value for Scots there then.

But closer inspection of the respective teams throws a bit more light on Scottish promise and English weakness, enough perhaps to suggest that this game will be a lot more competitive than the pessimistic among us may fear. From the Scottish perspective, grounds for hope are wrapped up in just 20 minutes of play; the first quarter in Ireland.

Chris Paterson was the inspiration in his move back to stand-off, but he admitted this week that had he turned the first five minutes of constant Scottish attack into even three points with a penalty, when he had the chance, there may have been more on which to build. Instead, the inexperienced fly-half continued with the ambitious statement of intent, ran at Ireland and found their defence, though run ragged on several occasions, able to withstand all that Scotland could throw at it.

It was, however, a style of rugby that offers most hope to Scotland. Suggestions that they should revert to a ten-man style instead, with the kicking of Dan Parks that helped Glasgow win last week, ignores the fact that it is that very tightening of Scotland's play over the past year that is largely responsible for the squad's recent disappointments. As has often been said, Parks has been the fall-guy, following many Scotland stand-offs over the decades, when in fact had the players around him been more skilful and dynamic Scotland might still be kicking their way out of trouble.

Hadden started well with Scotland in 2005, when his game-plan offered freedom, daring and trust in his players, but as the pressure built into World Cup year he tightened up. In developing a more physical, direct style, he caught out opponents for a while, but what his side gained in surprise it lost in genuine rugby threat. Hadden's squad is now back to trying to find the blend of a powerful, physically-imposing Scottish side that can play quick rugby.

Both the power and the guile are crucial to Scottish hopes of an upset this afternoon. The set-piece has been stiffening, but the scrum faces its greatest test in this championship, certainly, and perhaps a greater one than even Argentina posed in the World Cup.

Moving further out, a huge contest will be at the tackle/breakdown area, where an England back row new to this fixture, Tom Croft, Nick Easter and Michael Lipman, will take on more experienced back rows in Simon Taylor and Allister Hogg, and the fierce newcomer Alasdair Strokosch, in a tumultuous fight for possession.

As well as terrific aggression, the winner of this battle will have displayed greater speed and discipline, but the disparity in Test experience, and the fact Easter seems to run on one leg, due to a bad knee injury, hints at a real Scottish advantage. If the hosts compete in the set-piece and at the breakdown, Mike Blair, the captain, and Paterson can ask new questions of the English defence.

Just as Paterson knows Iain Balshaw's fallibility and Lesley Vainikolo's weaknesses, however, England will know Paterson's from his Gloucester teammates and he has to ensure he does not take on too much himself. Graeme Morrison, for example, must be given early opportunities to build confidence on his first Six Nations start and Paterson needs his outside backs to be heavily involved if Scotland are to ignite real attacking threat.

The forecast for today predicts cold, wet, and wind; the ideal weather for Scotland would arguably be windy, but dry. A wet pitch and wet hands, so making running rugby risky, would play into England's preferred style of forward-dominated rugby. Ashton wants his side to open up more, but does not yet appear brave enough to request it until the game is won.



But, irrespective of whether this game descends into another turgid mud-wrestle or graduates into an open, exciting match of real flair, Scotland will need to produce an incredibly passionate, aggressive, dynamic, intelligent and error-free performance to win it.

Has this Scottish squad got what it takes? Nobody can really say until the final whistle sounds this afternoon. Excitement comes in many shapes and sizes, and the 125th meeting of these great nations will be no different.