Celtic try to stay afloat as Yellow Submarine looms

FOOTBALL managers are no different from punters in that each tends to form in his mind a picture of a satisfactory conclusion to future events. In both cases, too, the reality rarely turns out as beautiful as the pre-conceived image.

Gordon Strachan gave a perfect demonstration of this common pitfall yesterday, when he deliberated on Celtic's formidable task against Villarreal – nicknamed the Yellow Submarine – in tonight's second match in Group E of the Champions League. Unlike the majority of naturally optimistic betting men, however, the Celtic manager has a firm grasp of the difference between theory and practice.

"I know which way I'm going to play it tomorrow," said Strachan, when pressed on his tactical approach to the game. "I've got an image of how it's going to go, but it very rarely works as perfectly as you see it."

Strachan's wariness of opponents who finished runners-up to Real Madrid in their domestic championship last season, who currently lead that league, and who have already taken a scoreless draw from their visit to Manchester United on Matchday One, owes nothing to natural pessimism, but everything to respect for the Spanish side's qualities.

There was never any risk of his belittling his own players, to whom he is never anything less than generous in public. But he is too experienced and too knowledgeable not to recognise the strengths that have made Villarreal, under their Chilean coach, Manuel Luis Pellegrini, a genuine force in European football.

"I think anyone with any football knowledge knows about Villarreal," he said. "We know they're good and they have a South American mentality running through them. That means they defend very well, have good ability and great determination. Their coach has made it a home from home over here with quite a group of South Americans in his squad. There's a nucleus there with which they're very comfortable.

"They're a side who are top of their league and have good variation in their play. They can change their team a bit, too. I mean, Marcos Senna, one of the midfield stars of the Spain team who won the European championships, was left out of the Man United game. That takes some going and shows the strength of their squad.

"Taking something out of this game would be an achievement in itself, but I'll be even happier because of what they have already achieved. They're top of the league now, they've drawn with Manchester United, they've got all their good players and they're a fantastic outfit."

Strachan's assessment of his own squad is mixed enough to induce both optimism and pessimism in their fans, although he admitted that they have yet to prove that they have the fundamental quality to handle opponents whose skill in possession of the ball is beyond question.

"We don't have the experience of the Neil Lennons, Alan Thompsons and Chris Suttons," said Strachan. "But there's a youthfulness about the squad, and a bit of pace about them. We do feel we can play at a fairly high tempo now, but whether we've got the real ability to go with that we'll soon find out. The squad is adaptable, players can play in different positions."

Strachan has already confirmed that he is likely to deploy his players in a basic 4-5-1 formation, and his emphasis on the mobility and pace of some of his players suggests that Shaun Maloney and Aiden McGeady could be the choices for the wide roles in midfield, to the exclusion of Shunsuke Nakamura. There seems little doubt that Georgios Samaras will be the nominal lone striker, given his movement and his recent productivity.

"You can play what is supposedly a 4-5-1, but still have two strikers if one drops back into the hole," said Strachan. "We've done that often enough in Europe and it was a system that worked well enough in the pre-season matches when we beat Porto and Feyenoord away from home.

"At the various coaching courses, there is general agreement that there are variations of attacking, but when it comes to defending, everyone defends 4-5-1. The key is keeping the ball, because that gives you your best chance of keeping a clean sheet. The more you have the ball, the less chance the other team have of attacking you. If you sit down and analyse every game in Europe, you'll see that's the way it goes.

"In the Champions League I don't think teams wear opponents down with sheer pressure. It's individual brilliance that wins games, breakaways and counter-attacks. You only get what you deserve in Europe, and I'd like to think we we've got the equipment to get something here tomorrow night."

The gratifying pre-match picture in Strachan's mind is doubtless shared by many of the club's followers, but a less slanted appraisal of the difference in status between the teams suggests that Celtic's miserable record in group matches on foreign soil is unlikely to be improved at El Madrigal.

• Bookmakers bet365 have reported huge bets on Villarreal to beat Celtic tonight. Celtic have not won on 17 previous attempts on away Champions League duty and, after toiling to beat SPL strugglers Aberdeen on Saturday, bet365 have revealed that even Celtic fans are not rushing to back their team.

Bet365 spokesman Steve Freeth said: "We've been forced to cut our odds on Villarreal and push our price on a Celtic win out to 7-1. We've taken several massive bets on a Villarreal victory from our big hitters.

"Obviously, punters have taken into account Celtic's truly abysmal Champions League record and they really struggled at the weekend."

Villarreal are 4-9 to win and the draw is 3-1.