WHEN a government brings forward a piece of legislation, particularly a flagship bill, the public has the right to expect that ministers want to carry that through to the statute book.
But there was a theory gaining ground at Holyrood last night – strongly denied by the Nationalists – that the First Minister would prefer to see his local income tax proposals fall.
If that was to happen, he could go into the next election blaming
his political opponents for the continuation of the council tax and reap the rewards at the ballot box.
This theory relies on either the Scottish Government failing to reach agreement with the Liberal Democrats or failing to bring the Greens on board.
The opposite theory is that Mr Salmond and the Nationalists actually believe the local income tax will work and be popular with the Scottish people.
Either way, what is clear is that, by deciding to introduce legislation on this issue, the Scottish Government is facing its most difficult parliamentary test since taking office last May.
The local income tax plans have been pilloried inside Holyrood and castigated outside.
The Scottish Government held a consultation process which managed to bring together a range of disparate groups into one coherent body of opinion, which was against the local income tax.
By pushing ahead with his plans, Mr Salmond is striking a very dangerous balance. He is gambling that support for local income tax in the country as a whole outweighs the formal opposition to the plans from "civic Scotland", as evidenced by the consultation process.
However, in doing so, Mr Salmond is risking the wrath of a swathe of different groups, from business to unions, none of which he can afford to lose.
The SNP came to power last May after a six-year campaign to woo business leaders and opinion formers.
The Nationalists managed to persuade some very influential people that they could be trusted in government. If Mr Salmond ostracises the very people he took so long to cultivate by pursuing this one controversial policy against their advice, he could end up losing the election too.
And, as he well knows, credibility in politics is everything.
The other big problem for the SNP government is the disputed £400 million in annual council tax benefit payments.
The Scottish Government claims these should continue to come to Scotland, even if council tax is abolished. However, the UK Treasury says no.
Bruce Crawford, the SNP's business manager, said yesterday he was confident the Scottish Government would get this money.
But his only hope for securing it appears to be the election of a Tory government at Westminster in 2010 and a sizeable and influential SNP group at Westminster to lobby the case.
Without that, or the £400 million, the local income tax policy will be dead.
The First Minister is used to taking gambles – it is how he conducts much of his politics, but this is high-risk stuff.
Would it really have been so bad to take on board the criticism from the consultation paper and back down, blaming Treasury intransigence for the policy's failure?
That way, the Scottish Government could have escaped a mess it will now be tangled in for the next three years at least and which could overshadow everything it is trying to do, including its referendum on independence.
The full article contains 565 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
