SCOTLAND is heading for a health crisis, with too few doctors being trained to replace those retiring or leaving the profession, medical leaders warned yesterday.
The British Medical Association (BMA) Scotland said one in five GPs were planning to retire in the next five years. In addition, half of family doctors report low morale, meaning many are tempted to leave the profession.
The warning came as GPs
from across Scotland meet in Clydebank today to discuss their concerns about the future of general practice. In a briefing paper, the BMA said Scotland would face a severe shortage of GPs in the next five years unless action was taken now.
The BMA said that GPs' workload had increased significantly in the past decade and was set to increase further with the Scottish Government's plans to provide more services in primary care.
The organisation said that demand for GP appointments were soaring, but despite this the number of doctors had only increased by 1 per cent in ten years. The BMA also said that as almost half of GPs are women, early retirement might see many leave in the next few years.
A growing number of GPs are now working part-time. A survey last year showed that 31 per cent of GPs described themselves as working part-time. So while there are 4,231 GPs practising in Scotland, this equates to only 3,782 full-time equivalents.
The BMA warned that a growing number of doctors were likely to choose to work part-time in the future, but training places for GPs did not reflect this. It said that while the trend was partly driven by more women in general practice, the number of men wanting to work flexible hours was also increasing.
The Royal College of GPs estimated in 2004 that a 30 per cent increase in GPs was needed in future to cope with demand – amounting to an extra 1,200 GPs in Scotland. By 2012, it is thought that the country will be short of at least 750 GPs.
Dr Dean Marshall, chairman of the BMA's Scottish GPs committee, said: "General practice is the cornerstone of the NHS and it is essential that Scottish Government recognises the importance of planning a GP workforce for the future."
However, Nicola Sturgeon, the health secretary, said: "The Scottish Government values the dedication of our GPs and they are offered a very attractive working package.
"We have robust GP workforce plans in place to retain and recruit doctors, so that we have enough to meet the demands of the NHS."
The full article contains 439 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
