Fourth Scots swine flu victim confirmed after air trip

A FOURTH case of swine flu was confirmed in Scotland yesterday as the virus continued its spread across the world.

An Ayrshire man, who developed symptoms while returning from a trip to Texas, was one of three new cases confirmed in the UK yesterday.

The Scottish Government was continuing efforts to contact more than 50 passengers who were on a flight from Birmingham to Glasgow with the man, and who may also be at risk.

The total number of patients in the UK with swine flu rose from 15 to 18 yesterday after two children in London were also diagnosed.

Another 716 possible UK cases of the virus are under investigation, according to the Health Protection Agency.

Swine flu has now spread to 19 countries and there have been 903 confirmed cases worldwide. About 100 people are thought to have died from the virus in Mexico, although just 19 have been confirmed. A Mexican toddler died in North America after being taken across the border for treatment.

The World Health Organisation's (WHO) alert level remains at phase five of six, meaning a global outbreak is imminent but still not yet officially declared.

WHO's director of global alert and response Dr Michael Ryan said there was "no evidence of sustained community spread outside of North America".

But he added: "I would still propose that a pandemic is imminent because we are seeing the disease spread."

Scotland's latest patient, who lives in Ayrshire but has not been named, flew back from the United States to Birmingham last Monday, and then on to Glasgow airport on Thursday, by which time he was showing symptoms.

He had not been to Mexico, but had visited Texas, where there have been dozens of cases.

The man is believed to have been travelling alone. His family have been given anti-virals to reduce the risk of them developing the H1N1 virus.

He has no link to Scotland's three other swine flu patients, who all know each other.

A spokeswoman for Flybe said they were contacting all passengers on the flight, BE7096, which left Birmingham for Glasgow at 8:25pm last Thursday.

Health secretary Nicola Sturgeon has urged anyone who was on this flight to contact NHS 24, but stressed that the risk was "very small".

She said: "Efforts are under way to trace close contacts of the individual, including those on the plane.

"Most, possibly all, of those on the flight would have been at very low risk of getting the infection."

Dr Harry Burns, Scotland's chief medical officer, said passengers who had been sitting closest to the man would have been most at risk.

He added that there would have been a "high level of safety" for passengers because the cabin air is filtered at least every two minutes.

Dr Burns told The Scotsman he had expected more people to have become infected with the virus.

He said: "I'm surprised to see no more person-to-person spread.

"This is a new virus and we do not have evidence to say how infectious or serious it is.

"However, in the US, which has had much more experience of dealing with this, it is thought it might not be such a serious virus."

The number of other possible cases in Scotland dropped from 19 to 16 yesterday.

They include four people in Grampian, four in Fife, three in Lothian and five elsewhere in Scotland.

Ms Sturgeon said: "I am cautiously optimistic that we are able to limit the spread."

The swine flu virus has now been confirmed throughout the British Isles as Ireland revealed its first case in an individual who had recently returned from Mexico.

In Scotland, newlyweds Iain and Dawn Askham from Polmont have already been confirmed to have swine flu, as well as their friend Graeme Pacitti from Falkirk.

First Minister Alex Salmond said yesterday that all close contacts of the Askhams had now been traced

He added: "We are now confident, given the timescales, that we have managed to contain that original infection, and that's great news."

However, he said further positive test results were "inevitable" in Scotland.

The Scottish Government yesterday defended its decision not to tell fans who attended a Doves concert in Edinburgh that swine flu victim Iain Askham was in the audience days before he was diagnosed.

The 27-year-old newlywed went to see the rock band at the 1,500-capacity HMV Picture House in the city's Lothian Road on 23 April after returning from his honeymoon in Mexico.

A Scottish Government spokesman said they were aware Mr Askham had attended the concert, but added: "The risk of spread to others who were around him is low, and it is important to stress that the risk to public health in Scotland remains low."

UK health secretary Alan Johnson said the measures taken had proved effective in limiting the spread of the disease in Britain, and added that so far he thought it was "contained".

However, he warned of a possible second wave of infection during the autumn.

"Our evidence from all previous pandemics is that you get two phases," he explained.

"You get a first wave that is often very mild and then you get a much more serious wave that comes along in the autumn and the winter."

This week the government will bombard every household in the UK with leaflets warning them about swine flu.

The government has launched "Catch it, Bin it, Kill it!" adverts, urging people to cover coughs and sneezes with tissues, throw them away and then wash their hands.

So far all those in the UK who have been confirmed with the virus appear to have had mild symptoms.

The UK already has enough anti-viral drugs to treat half the population – including the Scottish Government's stockpile of 1.3 million doses of Tamiflu.

However, concern has been raised that the virus may become resistant to Tamiflu.

Professor Hugh Pennington, emeritus professor of bacteriology at Aberdeen University, warned that it was difficult to know how effective Tamiflu would be due to concerns about resistance.

"Anti-viral resistance is becoming as big a problem as antibiotic resistance," he said.

Health chief claims Mexican epidemic is 'in its declining phase'

THE swine flu epidemic in Mexico is "in its declining phase", the country's health chief claimed last night.

Health secretary Jose Angel Cordova said yesterday the virus appeared to have peaked.

"The evolution of the epidemic is now in its phase of descent," he told a news conference.

He said Mexico's death toll from the virus stood at 19, compared to 16 on Saturday, and he added that the number of confirmed cases had increased only slightly, from 473 to 506.

However, he emphasised that the government, medical community and citizens must remain vigilant.

He said the outbreak appeared to have peaked in Mexico between 23 April and 28 April.

Although new cases of the flu virus, which mixes swine, avian and human flu strains, continue to be confirmed around the world, Mexico has presented data in the last couple of days showing a decline in serious flu cases and fewer sick people being admitted to hospital.

"There is evidence that we are going downward," Mr Cordova added.

Mexico had already scaled back from its original estimate of 176 suspected deaths.

Now it suspects more than 100 deaths from the new H1N1 virus, 19 of which have been confirmed.

Millions of people in Mexico City have been heeding government advice to stay at home, during a five-day "shut down" and the city's streets were largely empty yesterday.

Public hospitals in Mexico have noted a steady drop in patients turning up with fevers, suggesting the infection rate may be declining as people use hand gel and avoid crowds.

Beijing quarantines 70 healthy Mexicans as virus – and panic – continue to spread globally

CHINA has sparked a diplomatic row by holding more than 70 Mexican travellers in quarantine even though they are showing no symptoms of swine flu.

Mexicans were being asked to identify themselves when arriving on flights in China and were then isolated from other travellers after landing, according to Mexico's ambassador to Beijing, Jorge Guajardo.

They are being confined in hospitals and hotels around the country.

In one case, a Mexican couple and their three small children were roused from their hotel room at 4am and transported to a hospital, he said.

He added that none of those in isolation had presented symptoms and most had no contact with infected people.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong ordered the week-long quarantine of 350 guests and employees in a hotel where a Mexican tourist with swine flu had stayed.

About a half dozen police officers wearing masks guarded the hotel yesterday, even though all those inside were reported to be healthy.

Mexican foreign minister Patricia Espinosa described the steps as "discriminatory" and said: "Mexican citizens showing no signs at all of being ill have been isolated under unacceptable conditions."

He urged Mexicans not to travel to China until the situation was resolved.

However, Shanghai officials told a news conference yesterday the measures were warranted and legal under Chinese law.

"This is for the sake of their own personal health and for the rest of society," said Shanghai health bureau director Xu Jianguang.

The number of confirmed cases of people with swine flu had risen to 903 yesterday.

Of those, 506 were in Mexico, 226 in the United States and 85 in Canada.

So far, the swine flu epidemic has killed 19 people in Mexico and one toddler in the US, and has spread to 18 countries.

Spain became the hardest-hit nation in Europe yesterday with 20 new cases, bringing the total up to 40.

Most were in the southern region of Andalusia. Another 83 people were still under investigation for the disease.

Many Spaniards traditionally enjoy winter breaks in warm Mexican beach resorts and all but two of those infected had visited the former Spanish colony.

There were two new flu cases in Germany. A married couple were confirmed to be infected, after they were on the same flight as a woman who got swine flu after visiting Mexico.

In the US, more than 430 schools have closed, affecting about 245,000 children in 18 states.

Egypt ordered the slaughter of all the country's 300,000 pigs, despite expert advice that it cannot be transferred from the animals to humans.

It was reported that Egyptian police and armoured cars charged into a crowd of a 1,000 irate pig farmers armed with stones and bottles, leaving 12 people injured as residents of a Cairo slum resisted government efforts to slaughter their pigs.

Seven police were among the injured in the clashes with largely Christian rubbish collectors, who raise pigs on the refuse and live in the slums of Manishyet Nasr outside the capital.

In a zoo in Iraq's capital, Baghdad, three wild boars were killed because of swine flu fears even though the country has no documented cases of swine flu.

Jenny Haworth