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Heatwave Earth in 50 years, warns top scientist

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Published Date: 23 October 2009
THE world could experience a devastating 4C rise in temperature within just 50 years, a Met Office expert has warned.
Professor Julia Slingo told a summit in Edinburgh yesterday many people could experience a 4C rise within their lifetime.

It is generally accepted that to avoid dangerous climate change the global temperature must increase by no more than 2C.
However, Prof Slingo, the chief scientist at the Met Office, said at the Royal Society of Edinburgh: "It's possible to reach a 4C world by 2060 under a high-emission scenario."

Her words coincided with the publication by the government of a map that revealed the likely consequences of a 4C temperature rise. It predicted mass melting of ice sheets, flooding, famines and droughts.

According to the map, put together by the Met Office Hadley Centre, Europe would see an 8C rise in the hottest days of the year – making the heatwaves that killed thousands in 2003 a regular occurrence.

Prof Slingo said: "The impacts (of a 4C temperature rise] are very large and they are really quite frightening."

She warned that we were taking the planet into "uncharted territory" and said it was now inevitable that the world would experience a rise of at least 2C, "even with very aggressive emissions targets".

This was because of the time lag between releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and their impact on the climate. Even if no emissions were produced from now on across the globe, the climate would still heat up by 2C, she said.

"We cannot get back to pre-industrial climate," she added. "We are committed to irreversible changes."

Prof Slingo was talking at a summit held ahead of a major climate change conference in Copenhagen in December.

Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy told the audience: "The stakes at Copenhagen are huge, and we have to get a deal which is right for us now and right for the future generations who will bear the burden of the negotiation results."

However, John Ashton, the foreign secretary's special representative for climate change, warned that the United States could derail the progress of the talks because of delays getting legislation through Congress.

Meanwhile, thousands of people have signed a letter questioning the Conservatives' commitment to securing energy supplies after the Tory business spokesman, Ken Clarke, suggested that wind farms should not be built onshore.

The letter from the Climate Change Secretary, Ed Miliband, to Tory leader David Cameron said Mr Clarke's comments raised "urgent questions about whether your party is serious about supporting low-carbon jobs and energy generation".

Mr Miliband called on Mr Cameron to disown the comments, in which Mr Clarke said the few remaining wild open spaces left in Britain should not be used for wind turbines.

More than 3,000 people have signed the letter since it was posted online, officials said.





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  • Last Updated: 22 October 2009 9:59 PM
  • Source: The Scotsman
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Climate change
 
1

Jock Tamson,

Scotland, Caledonia, Alba 22/10/2009 22:32:10
This kind of story makes me glad that I will not be on this earth in 50 years time - unless I am doomed to immortality.

In 50 years time St Johnstone will win the Champions League, Professor Slingo. It is possible, after all.
2

The Former Mr. Angry,

Perth 23/10/2009 01:16:06
I think the Prof should Slingo her hook and stop peddling this drivel. I mean it is possible that in 50 years' time I could run a mile in 10 secs but it does seem unlikely. Also see Murphy doing a bit of Brown-nosing there regarding the Copenhagen boondoggle.

Sorry Murph your lot are going to be out shortly so you can retire to a cave with a candle. The likelihood of this conference achieving its stated aims seem exceptionally low given a luke"warm" US commitment and neither China seem overly to exert themselves in a real reduction in CO2 without some vast bribe or other, which of course they will probably look to Broon to commit us to - in a bankrupt country with all our resources depleted by him.
3

The Former Mr. Angry,

Perth 23/10/2009 01:16:53
...sorry "neither China nor India..."
4

Charles Linskaill,

Edinburgh 23/10/2009 03:11:45

Yes! We the Public must be scared of something, to keep us under control, of government, afterall the World ended in the year 2000, Witches are Real, and the Sky Fell Down, The Martians devoured us All!, the book is a best seller, any wonder why?



5

sceptic,

livingston 23/10/2009 06:49:57
Wow! Continual "barbeque" summers. "2002 warmer than 1998", "2007 warmer than 1998". All from the dis-credited Met Office who have never failed to exaggerate a temperature forecast; based on "adjusted" temperature records which when asked to explain their adjustment process famously stated that they would not divulge their methods lest someone should prove them to be faulty.
6

broadgait,

gullane 23/10/2009 07:15:56
Even the more cautious scientific acolytes of the global warming brigade now admit that, thanks to "natural factors" such as ocean currents, temperatures have failed to rise as predicted (although they plaintively assure us that this cooling effect is merely "masking the underlying warming trend", and that the temperature rise will resume worse than ever by the middle of the next decade).
7

broadgait,

gullane 23/10/2009 07:29:50
The claims of the global warmers are "warming up" for the Copenhagen jamboree. Fortunately the public are waking up to the over hype of the publicly funded global warming gravy train.
In answer to the question "Is there solid evidence that the Earth is warming because of human activity?".
In 2008, the "Yes" score was at 47%, i.e. almost one half agreed with the basic AGW statement. In 2009, the number dropped to 36%, i.e. by 11 percentage points.
8

Alexander,

Edinburgh 23/10/2009 08:33:39
#7
Hardly surprising, that poll was carried out in the US, an American has to be over 80 to recall living through the warmest year (1934).
9

Unimpressed one,

23/10/2009 09:57:58
More junk from a climate teat-sucker whose asmospheric modeling was a dismal failure. Conveniently of course, the predictions are way out to 50 years - long after the good professor has milked taxpayers for a fat salary and pension for peddling such tripe.

Let's hope the US saves the world by not signing up to this eco-wet dream this December.
10

Alternative (High-Octane) Fuel Head,

Edinburgh 23/10/2009 14:04:03
Better watch out. The sky might fall on our heads tomorrw!
11

El Franko,

23/10/2009 15:32:50
The UK Met Office has played a most shameful role in the AGW fiasco, as has the Royal Society in London, and various other bodies whose political innocence and vulnerability has been exploited by opportunists keen to ride the AGW bandwagon.

Napier at the Met Office is one (see http://ilovecarbondioxide.com/search?q=napier&x=3&y=20) . Many at the Royal Society were others (see http://ccgi.newbery1.plus.com/blog/?p=216). I know less about Prof Slingo, but I fear she has made a Faustian bargain of global import (see http://buythetruth.wordpress.com/2009/06/24/met-office-fraudcast/).

The reality of the AGW fiasco is becoming more widely known. Recent polls in the US have revealed an increasingly doubtful public (see http://www.climatedepot.com/).

Climate realists have not enjoyed the tens of billions of dollars which have fueled the AGW alarmists, but they are slowly and steadily exposing their alarmism as unjustified.
12

Geomac 1,

Scotland 23/10/2009 17:44:52
Yet more environmental bo**ocks. As a long term subscriber to the Scotsman, I am getting sick aand tired of this relentless drivel about how we are ruining the world.
STOP PLEASE!!!!!!
13

Black Sabbath,

23/10/2009 18:09:00
"THE world could experience a devastating 4C rise in temperature within just 50 years, a Met Office expert has warned"

But it can be miraculously solved with regulations and tax and re-imposed communism.
14

Geomac 1,

Scotland 23/10/2009 18:37:39
is this reporter Jenny Haworth by another name???? Sounds like the same unquestioning reporting of environmental bias??
15

n/,

Perth 23/10/2009 19:59:01
# 14

'is this reporter Jenny Haworth by another name???? Sounds like the same unquestioning reporting of environmental bias??''

I believe she,Jenny Haworth, has recently married Geomac1,so you may well be correct!
16

seanie,

23/10/2009 22:23:11
Global warming of just a few degrees, over such a short timescale, could be catastrophic. The potential impacts of such a change are huge.

And the scientific evidence is that's precisely where we're heading unless we rapidly reduce carbon emissions and limit, or even reduce, CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

Fossil fuesl are finite resources. We'll have to find alternatives anyway. The threat of climate change just means we'd better do it as soon as possible.

17

Oldcrafty,

23/10/2009 23:29:05
What a load of utter bollux.
18

langtonian,

uphall 10/11/2009 02:29:09
Given the source,the detail explained by scientificly based reputable chif scientist at the MET,office appears to me a bed rock of information upon which non-tecnically equiped interested persons (include myself)do want to know about climate change.

Those who are dismisive of International style conferances such as the Copenhagen,December meeting, can be at best be seen to be running away from science based fact, or in the worst case scenario becoming "human Ostriches's and indulging in a burying their heads in the sand technique;hoping the enemy(in this case climate change)will save their a situation which is patently "bad" from becoming terminal .

As a non expert on the subject matter in hand my other reliable "source"in climate change indications is David Attenborough;any one who ignores his take on all matters pertaining to "Global Warming"and consider their own preffered gueswork to be more acceptable is just whisteling in the wind.

 

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