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Not all downhill for skiing



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Your report, "Scottish skiing hits the skids, despite snow" (25 March) is factually incorrect and potentially damaging for Scotland's snowsports industry.
Over the years, many changes have taken place at Scotland's five snowsports areas – CairnGorm Mountain, Glencoe, Glenshee, The Lecht and Nevis Range – some of which are touched upon in your report, including the lower volume of people who ski and sno
wboard in Scotland. There are many reasons for this, not least a strange and new perception that winter finishes in February (just when the snow is really building up).

We know that customer expectations are changing and there is easier access to snowsports abroad, and many people believe (incorrectly) that Scotland no longer has snow.

As ski companies, we are realistic in our expectations and less reliant on high-volume winter business. We are also honest with our customers and "tell it as it is". We do not have, and do not expect, as many customers as in the 1980s and 90s, however, the snowsports areas are all on target for a good season, with excellent conditions expected well into April. To say our industry is "on the skids" is both incorrect and irresponsible.

MARIAN AUSTIN, Chair, Scottish Snowsports Marketing Group, Nevis Range, Torlundy, Fort William





The full article contains 212 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 27 March 2008 8:36 PM
  • Source: The Scotsman
  • Location: Edinburgh
 
1

Isonomia,

Lenzie 28/03/2008 00:52:09
Well here's some good news. Global warming stopped in 1998 and this century the temperature is falling so much that January 2008 was the coldest month in 14 years and February confirms the cooling trend.

Unfortunately, Britain hasn't seen its fair share of cooling, but statistically we'll get it eventually and then we'll all be complaining about too much snow!
2

Slioch,

Scottish Highlands 28/03/2008 08:51:22
#1 Isonomia claims,

"February confirms the cooling trend."

Not according to the data source that you for your "coldest month in 14 years" statement. This shows:

January 2008 had a global temperature anomaly of +0.056C with respect to the 1961-1990 mean.
February 2008 had a global temperature anomaly of +0.194C with respect to the 1961-1990 mean.

See: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh%2Bsh/monthly

That is a recovery of +0.138C in just one month!

Of course, no-one with any sense takes much notice of individual monthly global temperatures, but if, like you, you do so, then you might at least try to report the correct figures.
3

Slioch,

Scottish Highlands 28/03/2008 08:52:41
#2

That should have been:

"Not according to the data source that you have used for your "coldest month in 14 years" statement"
4

Slioch,

Scottish Highlands 28/03/2008 10:11:47
MARIAN AUSTIN, Chair, Scottish Snowsports Marketing Group, claims "As ski companies, we are realistic in our expectations ... . We are also honest with our customers and "tell it as it is".

Really? This is from The Scotsman, 29th September 2007:

"SCOTLAND'S ski resorts believe they could be in line for a bumper year as the first snowflakes of the season fell on Scottish mountains yesterday.

The industry said unseasonable flurries in the Cairngorms could indicate a big freeze is on the way this winter.

Last year was one of the worst ever for ski operators in Scotland, with the fourth mildest winter since accurate records began more than 90 years ago.

But with the first snow usually falling in October, yesterday's early dusting promises the kind of conditions that will bring winter sports enthusiasts flocking to the Highlands.

Colin Kirkwood, of the CairnGorm Mountain ski area, said he hoped the cold weather was a taste of things to come.

He added: "The snow is unseasonably early this year. It's usually October before we see any kind of covering." "

The autumn, of course, is when ski season tickets start to be sold.
5

Isonomia,

Lenzie 28/03/2008 10:28:40
Slioch, I know you're having fun with the "recovery" after the period of cooling, but +.138 compared to the -.55 drop from the same month a decade ago hardly warrents comparison.

I notice that you have not yet commented on the >99.6% probability that the Met Office's global warming forecasts are wrong BECAUSE THEY INCLUDE AN ASSUMPTION OF WARMING.

The met office are currently predicting rises of 0.3C per decade, their forecasts are for a global temperature which is consistently higher than their prediction by an average of 0.06C. Or to put it another way, if you sum those errors over a decade the temperature will be 0.6C cooler than their forecast which on the face of it means we should expect 0.3C cooling this decade ... which might be worrying.

But it all depends on where they calibrate their forecast from. If they start the forecast of the average for the previous year, then yes recalibrating their model to fit the actual temperatures being recorded suggests they would predict 0.3C cooling per decade. If however, they use the global temperature at the end of the year, to forecast the next year, the cooling they would predict may be as high as 1.2C/decade which would make the world's climate cooler than ever recorded in modern times within just a single decade.
6

Slioch,

Scottish Highlands 28/03/2008 10:46:55
# Isonomia

Having fun? It was you that was that was making a false claim ("February confirms the cooling trend") and I that was correcting it, whilst pointing out that "no-one with any sense takes much notice of individual monthly global temperatures."

You obviously take much notice of individual monthly figures.

As to your second paragraph, I'll comment on it when I see the calculations upon which it is based - which you have not provided.

If it is anything like the statistical gibberish with which you embarass yourself in paras 3 and 4 then I won't hold my breath.

 

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