Party 'risks losing more than half its MPs'

THE Liberal Democrats are at risk of losing more than half their MPs unless their popularity improves, an elections expert warned yesterday.

Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said the party's number of MPs would be cut from 63 to 25 if its current level of support was repeated at a general election.

The warning came as former leader Sir Menzies Campbell said the party should not "sell its birthright" and do a deal with Labour or the Tories in the event of a hung parliament, unless it received a guarantee that proportional representation would be introduced.

Prof Curtice told a fringe event at the Lib Dems' conference that the party faced a "sticky" election as a result of the resurgence of the Tories and the fact that 70 per cent of its MPs had a Tory challenger in second place.

He questioned whether it was a gamble for Nick Clegg to lead the Lib Dems from being the party most in favour of tax-and-spend to the party now least in favour of such policies.

Delegates yesterday approved Mr Clegg's call for further tax cuts on top of a 4p income tax cut first adopted last year. In Scotland, the party wants Holyrood to use its powers to trim a further 2p off income tax.

But Prof Curtice warned: "Simply changing policy on its own is never enough. You have to be able to sell it."

He said emphasising the Lib Dems as a tax-cutting party could make it harder to attract disgruntled Labour supporters.

At the moment, the Tories are about 20 points ahead of Labour in the polls, with the Lib Dems on about 17 per cent, down six points on the 2005 general election.

However, Prof Curtice said it was "not inconceivable" that the Tory lead could halve. "Given the way the electoral system is still biased against the Conservatives, you still can't rule out the possibility that there will be a hung parliament," he said

He said the chances of the Tories supporting a bill bringing in proportional representation for Westminster elections were "frankly something close to zero".

The dilemma the Lib Dems were more likely to face was whether they should prop up another party in government or decide to force another snap election to allow the electorate to think again.

Sir Menzies said: "I should find it very, very difficult indeed to support any arrangement with any other party in the Commons which didn't have as its primary condition the immediate presentation of a bill to create a system of proportional representation for elections to the Commons.

"We have not made so many sacrifices and done so much that we should sell our birthright for anything other than the major constitutional change, which is necessary to make this country a modern democracy."

Chris Huhne, the Lib Dems' home affairs spokesman, insisted his party's MPs were better than those of other parties at hanging on to their seats.

Tax cuts reflect 'austerity mood'

THE Liberal Democrats must become a "tax-cutting party" to reflect the "mood of austerity" in Britain, the party's finance spokesman said yesterday.

Vince Cable also attacked the "national obsession" with home ownership, saying houses were places to live and not "gambling chips".

He said the size of the state needed to be trimmed back, and called for public-sector workers earning £100,000 or more to be forced to reapply for their jobs. At the same time, the number of MPs should be cut and their pensions trimmed back.

Mr Cable said: "Government should do fewer things well rather than many things badly." He also gave strong backing for plans to introduce large cuts in tax. The new leadership hopes the cuts will distinguish the party from Labour and the Tory Party, which has only pledged so far to cut inheritance tax for millionaires.

Mr Clegg and his aides said the cut was necessary to reflect the economic downturn and the difficulties faced by millions of families in meeting household bills.

But he was opposed by a number of more left-wing MPs and delegates who argued that the tax cuts would do nothing for people most in need, such as pensioners and the unemployed.

Danny Alexander, Mr Clegg's chief of staff, told the party's annual conference that it was necessary for "government to tighten its belt a little so that low-income families don't have to tighten theirs a lot".

But Oxford MP Dr Evan Harris said the party's policy should be about "taxing more fairly and spending more wisely". Urging a rebellion, he said: "Hero worship of our leaders does not help them avoid the pitfalls of being labelled a tax-cutting party."