Bread, beer and biscuit prices could be set to rise as wet winter hits UK crops

It comes as the unusually wet autumn resulted in lower levels of planting

Brussels sprouts being harvested in a flooded field at TH Clements and Son Ltd near Boston, Lincolnshire.

The price of bread, beer and biscuits may rise this year as research suggests the unusually wet weather seen over autumn and winter could hit UK harvests by almost a fifth.

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) analysed the crop area forecasts from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHBD) as well as Government yield data.

It found that production of wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape could fall by four million tonnes compared to 2023 – a reduction of 17.5 per cent.

The decline may be more than five million – or 21.2 per cent – if compared to the average production of the years 2015 to 2023, the analysis also suggests.

It comes as the unusually wet autumn resulted in lower levels of planting, while relentless storms and flooding over winter led to even more losses for British farmers.

Tom Lancaster, land analyst at ECIU, said there is a “real risk” that the price of bread, beer and biscuits could increase if the poor harvest leads to higher costs.

The warning comes just as food prices are beginning to fall following skyrocketing inflation sparked by the global gas price crisis.

Wheat production could be hit particularly hard, with the ECIU estimating a fall of more than a quarter – 26.5 per cent – compared to 2023.

This is because milling wheat used to make bread needs to meet higher quality requirements that will be more difficult for farmers to achieve with the wet weather.

Last week, the head of Associated British Foods – one of the UK’s biggest breadmakers, which owns Kingsmill and Ryvita – warned of potentially higher prices if the rise in cost of domestic grains is not offset by larger harvests abroad.

With the wet weather continuing to hamper the planting of spring crops like barley, brewers and distillers may also see higher costs, leading to an increase in the cost of a pint, the ECIU said.

It comes as the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) recently said extreme weather presents one of the biggest threats to UK food security.

Warmer wetter winters similar to this past year are expected to increase in frequency as the climate warms.

Mr Lancaster said: “To withstand the wetter winters that will come from climate change, farmers need more support.”

“The Government’s green farming schemes are vital to this, helping farmers to invest in their soils to allow them to recover faster from both floods and droughts.”

Noting that half of British food comes from abroad, Mr Lancaster said the Government will have to ensure farmers both in the UK and abroad are supported.

“Moving faster to net zero emissions is the only guaranteed way to limit these impacts and maintain our food security,” he added.