Poll hands Labour biggest lead over SNP in more than a decade

A new poll has put Labour ahead of the SNP at Holyrood and Westminster.

Scottish Labour has its biggest lead over the SNP in almost a decade and is set to overtake the party of government at both Westminster and Holyrood, a new poll has found.

The poll by Norstat, formerly Panelbase, for the Sunday Times shows the number SNP seats at Westminster is expected to be cut by around two thirds, with the vote share of Humza Yousaf’s party expected to drop to its lowest level since the 2014 independence referendum.

According to the poll, the SNP would hold onto just 15 of its 43 Westminster seats, with Labour returning 28 MPs north of the Border.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. Picture Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

The poll comes after Mr Yousaf said he would resign as party leader and first minister after his power move to remove the Greens from his government backfired.

Sir John Curtice, who compiled seat projections from the poll, said the “question that now arises is whether the coronation of John Swinney will enable the SNP to turn the page”.

He said: “Even among those who said they would vote Yes in another independence referendum, only 56 per cent said they were now willing to back the SNP for Westminster, as would only two thirds who voted for the party in 2019.”

According to the poll, the SNP would attract support from 29 per cent of voters — a fall of three points in the space of a month — while Labour’s share increased by two points to 34 per cent. According to this, the SNP would return 15 MPs in what would be the party’s poorest Westminster performance since 2010.

In an additional blow to the SNP, the Scottish Conservatives, whose vote share remained at 16 per cent in the poll, would add three seats to return nine MPs. The LibDems, on 8 per cent, would increase their tally of MPs to five, according to the poll.

According to the survey, support for independence remains split, with 48 per cent in favour of Scotland leaving the UK and 52 per cent backing the Union.

Analysis of polling for Holyrood indicates Labour would be the largest party, with 40 MSPs, with 38 for the SNP, 24 for the Tories, ten Greens, nine Lib Dems and eight from Reform.