SNP leadership: Sir John Curtice gives verdict on John Swinney amid 're-set moment' claim

John Swinney could become Scotland’s first minister as early as next week after Kate Forbes, who would have been his main rival for the job, announced she will not be running

The race to be the new leader of the SNP could provide the party with a “re-set moment” to stymie the momentum of Labour north of the border, the UK’s premier polling expert has said.

Humza Yousaf announced this week he would stand down, with former deputy first minister John Swinney and former finance secretary and defeated leadership candidate Kate Forbes emerging as the early favourites for the job.

Mr Swinney announced he would run for the job on Thursday morning and now appears all but set to be elected to the role uncontested, with Ms Forbes having declared she will not put her name forward.

John Swinney at the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh, after he became the first candidate to declare his bid to become the new leader of the SNP. Picture: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire

The new leader will take over at a time of turmoil for the SNP, with a number of polls showing a shrinking gap between the party and Labour at both Westminster and Holyrood elections.

But Professor Sir John Curtice said the momentum was not irreversible.

“This is the re-set moment,” he said. “What is now crucial is do the SNP get somebody in place who can unite the party, get an accommodation with the Greens and project the party and the cause of independence much more effectively than was the case for the last 12 months?

“I have some question marks about Swinney on the second criteria, but he certainly should be able to do it on the first.”

John Swinney speaking to the media at the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh, after he became the first candidate to declare his bid to become the new leader of the SNP. Picture: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire

Sir John hinted it would be important for the party to avoid a “divisive” contest, which could result in a “weak leader”.

“That’s what happened 12 months ago,” he said. “To be frank, I think both Swinney and Forbes could do a better job than Yousaf. They’ve got their respective advantages and disadvantages.”

The Strathclyde University professor went on to say opposition politicians had “overplayed their hand” in bringing about the downfall of Humza Yousaf. In the aftermath of the scrapping of the Bute House Agreement, Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross tabled a motion of no confidence in the First Minister.

In their anger at how the agreement ended, the Greens planned to back the motion to oust Mr Yousaf, forcing him to seek a deal with the Alba Party, which he eventually rejected.

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice. Picture: John Devlin

“They have brought down a serious weak link for the SNP,” he said. Problems, including the police investigation into the SNP’s finances and the party’s record in Government, “aren’t going to go away tomorrow, but that’s the reason you need a good, strong, effective leader and I suspect that either Swinney or Forbes will be in a better position that Yousaf to provide that”.

Turning to Labour, the polling expert said the main reason for the rise of Labour in Scotland was the same as it is in the rest of the UK – Boris Johnson and Partygate mixed with Liz Truss and her mini-budget.

It was not until after the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon, he said, that Labour were able to gain some pro-independence voters and the “most immediate” challenge for the new SNP leader is to try and win those voters back.