A SURGE in the number of Irish voters planning to vote No on the European Union's reform treaty sent shock waves through Brussels yesterday.
Ireland is the only one of the EU's 27 states holding a referendum on the reforms, with a vote set this Thursday. An opinion poll showing opposition had dramatically hardened brought warnings of a defeat that would set off a "chain reaction".
Th
e Treaty of Lisbon sets out to reform the EU after it nearly doubled in size. It contains many proposals from the EU's failed constitution, which voters in France and the Netherlands shot down in 2005.
They include a long-term president of the European Council of EU leaders, a stronger foreign policy chief with a real diplomatic service, a more democratic voting system and more say for national and European parliaments.
But a survey of 1,000 voters conducted for the Irish Times showed 35 per cent planned to vote No, up from only 17 per cent in the same poll three weeks ago, a surge that has doubled the number against the treaty. The Yes camp stood at 30 per cent, down from 35 per cent.
Supporters of the reform treaty say it will forge a stronger European Union. But there is no alternative in place if the treaty is defeated.
"If the No vote wins there will be a cry of pain from the rest of the EU. We've been struggling to reform for years and there is no prospect of renegotiating the treaty," said the Liberal Democrat MEP Andrew Duff.
"People are very scared in Brussels, because it is going to be a real mess if the Irish vote No," said Jose Ignacio Torreblanca, senior research fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank. "A No vote would unleash a sort of chain reaction," he said. Britain and others could suspend ratification, leaving the EU to soldier on with old decision-making structures straining under the weight of 27 member states, he added.
The EU's 26 other members are ratifying the document through their national parliaments and administrations, but Ireland requires all EU treaties to be ratified by referendum.
A No vote on Thursday could turn a meeting of EU leaders the following week into a crisis summit and put a cloud over the incoming French EU presidency.
The Irish finance minister, Brian Lenihan, said yesterday the poll showed that the public was being confused by a wide range of fringe anti-EU pressure groups.
They have plastered Dublin with posters warning that the treaty will permit other EU countries to dictate policies to Ireland, including raising its business tax rates and legalising abortion. All the claims were nonsense, Mr Lenihan said.
But despite backing from farmers and other lobbies, some treaty supporters say the Yes campaign has struggled to explain the benefits of the treaty.
The full article contains 487 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
