GORDON Brown's statement this week about Holyrood taking greater control over its budget has left many questions over what powers he envisaged being transferred.
The statement was, perhaps deliberately, vague.
"The Scottish Parliament is wholly accountable for the budget it spends, but not for the size of its budget," Mr Brown said. "And that budget is not linked to the success of the Scottish economy and
that's why we've asked Calman to look carefully at the financial accountability of the parliament."
On the surface it looks as though all he is doing is giving his blessing to the Calman Commission to beef up the Scottish Parliament's powers, with no particular view of what it might propose.
There are 24 categories of tax, of which 20 are collected by Westminster. And Mr Brown's speech has raised the issue of whether control of some major taxes could come to Holyrood, as both the SNP and Liberal Democrats want.
But Professor Arthur Midwinter, one of Scotland's leading economists, does not think it is possible.
"If you look at the (main] taxes – income, corporation, property and VAT – it is hard to see where powers could be moved," he said. "There could be a greater variation on income tax, maybe increasing it from 3p to 5p or 7p, but the Scottish Parliament never uses that anyway.
"It cannot have control of corporation tax because it would break European law to have two rates in one country. The same is true of VAT."
He says only smaller taxes, such as stamp duty – which raised £686 million out of £45 billion of total taxes in Scotland in 2006/07 – could be shifted.
The other possible change is that taxes raised in Scotland could be assigned to the Scottish budget as part of a renegotiation of the Barnett Formula. This would leave control in Westminster, but the actions of the Scottish Government would affect the amount raised through the growth of the economy.
Prof Midwinter is again sceptical and believes there will inevitably be an argument over the North Sea oil revenues, which are estimated at £15 billion this year
He said. "I don't see the UK government giving that to Scotland. I also think that it will only have a limited effect and there will still be a sizeable block grant from London."
It has been mooted by some commentators that the plan is intended to please the English by dismantling the Barnett Formula.
Professor David Bell of Stirling University, a member of the group taken on by the Calman Commission to look at greater fiscal autonomy, believes it is about bringing responsibility to Scotland.
"We are at a very early stage in our deliberations, but the idea
is that if the Scottish Government performs well and the economy grows, then revenue grows.
"If it performs badly then it decreases," he said.
The full article contains 480 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
