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RBS results - talk to Bill Jamieson



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Published Date: 08 August 2008
SO is it the firing squad for RBS chief executive Sir Fred Goodwin on the basis of the biggest loss ever reported by the bank? Bizarrely, perhaps, not yet awhile.
* Bill Jamieson, The Scotsman's Executive Editor, was online this morning to discuss today's RBS announcement. Scroll to the bottom of the page to read the discussion *

For while RBS has slumped into a pre-tax loss of £691 million
in the six months to end June after sub prime debt provisions of a whopping £5.9 billion, these results are better than widely feared.

The stock market had been braced for an overall loss of up to £1.75 billion, the worst in the UK banking history. The actual result was much less than this.

So while the overall market opened lower this morning, shares in RBS managed a gain of 9.25p or 2.25p to 238.25p.

Sir Fred described the "unprecedented" market conditions as "a chastening experience and reporting a pre-tax loss of £691 million is something I and my colleagues regret very much."

That big slice of humble pie will not assuage all the critics who have questioned his buccaneering acquisition ways and the bank's big errors of judgement in America where it suffered from its exposure to US sub prime and derivative products.

But credit where credit is due. Pro forma profits, leaving aside the pre-announced sub prime write downs, came to £5.1 billion, down just three per cent.

UK retail and corporate banking profits are up 8 per cent .

"Impairment losses" on UK retail banking - that's provisions against mortgage and personal lending to non-business customers are down eight per cent at £556 million.

And the integration of ABN AMRO is yielding savings twice the level the bank anticipated at this stage.

So underlying business results, bearing in mind the atrocious conditions of the past six months, are better than many expected.

So are Sir Fred and his chairman Sir Tom McKillop off the hook? I do not see a clamour among institutional investors for change on the basis of these results.

But the big test is still to come. Economies around the world are now slowing. US, continental Europe and the UK will almost certainly experience recession. That means a near certain rise in bad and doubtful debt provisions.

Sir Fred Goodwin warns in his statement that difficult conditions in financial markets "look set to be compounded by a deteriorating economic outlook".

This is not the beginning of the end - just the end of the beginning of the banking drama.



The full article contains 436 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 08 August 2008 10:59 AM
  • Source: The Scotsman
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Royal Bank of Scotland
 
1

Bill Jamieson,

The Scotsman 08/08/2008 09:36:32
Hello, Bill here. Ready to discuss your questions and comments on the RBS figures.
2

Billy the Fish,

08/08/2008 09:51:36
Does RBS expect it to get even worse next year?
3

rbs shareholder,

edinburgh 08/08/2008 09:51:42
Bill,

any views on the current rbs share price valuation? Should I be holding shares in anticipation of a rise in the medium to long term, or get out in the short term?

4

Corstorphinery,

Edinburgh 08/08/2008 10:08:21
#3 Did you take up your rights? Are you a long term rbs shareholder? If so you should sit tight and hold your shares. All bank shares look good value to me. Banks will now be tightening lending criteria, widening margins and cutting costs which should make them big earners for the longer term (3-5 years from now).

This is advice from a non-professional. Please be advised that the value of shares can go down as well as up....
5

Bill Jamieson,

08/08/2008 10:16:51
#2: We are awaiting a live conference call with Sir Fred Goodwin at 12 noon this morning. I expect there will be lots of questions on second half trading and I will post later.
6

Bill Jamieson,

08/08/2008 10:19:58
#3: The market has responded positively to these results against a background of falling shares elsewhere. I think you need to take quite a long term view on these shares - three to five years. 2008H2 will be tough and 2009 even tougher, with big rises in bad and doubtful debt provisions as the recession bites. But RBS has well diversified assets and earnings and should pull through.
7

Jeff and Karen,

West Midlands 08/08/2008 10:35:09
Do you think this will effect the interim dividend and what do you think it would be?
8

Bill Jamieson,

08/08/2008 10:49:25
#7 Hello Jeff and Karen
Re the interim dividend, RBS announced at the time of the rights issue that a scrip dividend would be paid - shares in lieu of cash - on the basis of one new 'dividend' share for every 40 held. So, if you hold say 1,000 shares your scrip dividend entitlement would be 25 shares, worth at today's price £59.68.

Hope this helps,

Bill



 
  

 
 

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