ONE thing we have learnt from the United States in the past few weeks is that bridges can make or break political reputations. In the case of Sarah Palin, her decision to cancel a "bridge to nowhere" in Alaska is said to have won her the Republican nomination for vice-president.
Back at home this week the fate of another bridge – which everybody bar the Greens and environmentalist friends want – will be thrust into the heart of the political battleground at Holyrood. The second Forth Road Bridge is the most important infr
astructure project in Scotland and its economy and the SNP's reputation for government will be made or broken on its success in delivering it.
For those who may have forgotten, the existing crossing is perilously close to being declared unsafe and traffic restrictions could be required as early 2013, which offers little time to build a replacement. The issue is not really whether it should be built but how, when and at what cost.
Enter John Swinney, Holyrood's Mr Formidable, with his less than formidable Scottish Futures Trust (SFT). The SFT, originally meant to be a bond issue but now a politically correct version of the private finance initiatives (PFI) that were so derided by the SNP, will partly pay for the bridge.
On Wednesday Mr Swinney will make a statement to parliament regarding setting up an arm's-length SFT company, chaired by himself, and other details which may include projects to be funded through SFT.
But the action is really set to begin on Tuesday when he will appear before the Transport and Climate Change Committee, chaired by bridge opponent, Green MSP Patrick Harvie.
Mr Swinney will be asked why the new bridge is, at £4.2 billion, expected to cost about £800 million more than a much longer bridge announced to cross the Baltic Sea between Denmark and Germany.
But then he will face perhaps trickier questions on financing. Mr Swinney has made it clear that its preferred method is a form of PFI known as "not-for-profit distribution".
This means that the profit is agreed and capped up front – in contrast to the more flexible rates available from other forms of PFIs based on risk.
But estimates suggest that Mr Swinney's preferred financing could at least double and possibly end up being ten times the £4.2 billion estimate over a 20-year period. There will also be the issue of whether, with such a risky project, consortiums will come forward under Mr Swinney's terms.
The full article contains 430 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
