MARGO MacDonald, Scotland's only independent MSP, is set to decide the country's response to climate change – but has no idea which way she is going to vote.
MSPs vote on crucial emissions targets for the next decade tomorrow but, at the moment at least, the chamber is split down the middle, with Ms MacDonald the only undecided MSP.
The SNP wants Scotland to set a target of cutting emissions of greenho
use gases by 34 per cent by 2020 but with the option of increasing this target to 42 per cent if the rest of Europe moves to that higher target.
The Nationalists argue that any more than 34 per cent would be almost impossible without the means to cut emissions in cars, aviation and shipping, much of which is reserved. The Nationalists are likely to be supported by the Tories, giving them 63 votes.
Labour leaders have tabled an amendment calling for a target of a 40 per cent cut in emissions, moving to 42 per cent if the UK's climate change committee says that is achievable. They are likely to be supported by the Greens and the Liberal Democrats, giving them 64 votes.
If Ms MacDonald votes for the Labour amendment or abstains, it will be carried. If, however, she votes against it, both sides will be tied on 64 votes leaving the casting vote to the Presiding Officer, who is duty bound to come down against the amendment and back the original bill.
That will cause the amendment to fail, giving Ms MacDonald the power to pass or defeat the crucial Labour amendment on her own.
The Lothians MSP admitted yesterday she had been lobbied hard by both sides, with representatives from several parties handing over tracts of evidence.
"I am stuck in the middle, the vultures are circling," she said yesterday.
"I am absolutely, genuinely, trying to decide but I still haven't done so, its not an area of expertise of mine."
One slight complication is that her husband , former SNP MP Jim Sillars, is a definite climate change sceptic who worries about the cost of stringent new emissions targets.
Ms MacDonald did say that she had thought about trading her vote for concessions from the government, particularly if she could secure something valuable for Edinburgh in return for backing the government.
But she concluded that this was not a vote she could barter.
Richard Dixon, Director of environmental lobby group WWF Scotland, said it was "unfortunate" that Ms MacDonald should be left with so much responsibility and blamed the Tories for following the SNP line.
"We are in this position because the Tories have not shown any leadership on this issue, despite the early statements made by David Cameron when he became leader," he said.
He added: "The parliamentary arithmetic is very close indeed and we think Margo's vote will be crucial. We have talked to her and it is a big responsibility on her shoulders. This is the most important part of the bill."
