Labour kills off plan for referendum before 2011 elections

A REFERENDUM on Scottish independence appeared all but dead last night after the Labour Party announced it would oppose the SNP's plans for the rest of this parliament.

In an interview with The Scotsman, Iain Gray, the Scottish Labour leader, said the economic crisis had hardened his previously cautious approach to the Scottish Government's proposals for a referendum.

He admitted he had taken a more flexible approach to the issue in the past, but he now believed strongly that the vote should be opposed.

"There are no circumstances in which I would support the bill they have published," he said.

A source close to Mr Gray said this meant Labour would now oppose a referendum for the last two years of this parliamentary term, and probably beyond that as well.

With the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives equally adamant they will oppose the SNP's referendum plans, it appeared last night that the prospects of an independence poll this side of the next Holyrood election have effectively disappeared.

Labour's approach to a referendum has been in a state of confusion ever since Wendy Alexander's decision to back one a year ago.

The then leader of the Labour group at Holyrood declared "bring it on", insisting she was not frightened of a plebiscite and calling on the SNP to hold it as soon as possible.

After that surprise intervention, Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister, distanced himself from Ms Alexander and refused to back her position. She was then forced to retreat after her MSPs decided they could not back a referendum.

The result within the Scottish Labour Party was a position of cautious opposition to a vote on independence, with Mr Gray admitting he would consider backing a plebiscite if the SNP came up with a different proposition for the question and the timing.

However, in his interview with The Scotsman ahead of his party's Scottish conference that starts tomorrow in Dundee, Mr Gray sought to draw a line under the confusion of the Alexander leadership.

He said the economic crisis had convinced him a referendum would be a bad idea and had hardened his opposition to it.

Mr Gray said: "I have said in the past that if they came forward with a referendum proposal with a more straightforward question, we would have to look at it.

"But, I have to say, since then, the economic circumstances would say to me this really would be an enormous distraction at a time when politics has to serve the requirements of getting us through the recession."

Asked if this made him more opposed to the referendum than he had been in the past, he replied: "Yes. Independence is something I oppose because I think it would be bad for Scotland and the Scottish people; therefore I don't feel obliged to argue for a referendum.

"The economic conditions have hardened my view on it, because there are far more important things going on."

And he added: "There are no circumstances in which I would support the bill they have published."

A senior Labour source said that, although Mr Brown had not been approached for his specific approval of this policy, Mr Gray knew he had the Prime Minister's backing on the issue. "Iain didn't need to run it past Gordon – he knows what his view is," the source said.

Mr Gray's decision to move strongly away from a referendum follows a similar move by Tavish Scott, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader. He said last week he would not support either a straight yes-no question on independence or a multiple-choice referendum that included more powers for the Scottish Parliament. "We will not support a referendum which could let independence in through the back door," he said.

Yesterday, a spokesman for the Scottish Conservatives said: "We will not support the referendum plans. It is not an issue we should be talking about. It's a waste of time."

All three opposition parties are expected to unite today to vote through a Liberal Democrat amendment calling on the Scottish Government to abandon its referendum plans and concentrate on the economy.

That vote, if passed, will not bind the Scottish Government to anything, but it will be important symbolically in showing the unity of the unionist parties against an independence poll.

The vote on the SNP's referendum bill may be a year away and a lot could change in that time: one or more of the opposition parties could alter its policy, either through its membership or through a new leader, and the Scottish Government may change its plans significantly.

However, if none of these takes place, it is difficult to see where the Nationalists will get the support they need.

Alex Salmond, the First Minister, has appointed Mike Russell to take charge of this issue and he has the job of trying to secure a parliamentary majority for the bill.

He said last weekend he believed there was a parliamentary majority for a referendum but, with all the unionist parties taking an increasingly tough line against one, it is difficult to see where the support will come from.

Mr Russell also appealed to his opponents to allow a free vote on the issue, but this has been rejected by them.

So, unless the Scottish Government can come up with a completely different strategy, or manage to persuade one of the other parties to change sides, it looks as if the referendum bill will be defeated when it comes before parliament next year.

Mr Gray also insisted in his interview that there was no cross-over or confusion between his role and that of Jim Murphy, the Scottish Secretary.

Mr Gray was elected leader of the Labour group in the Scottish Parliament last summer, but he was backed by a range of individuals and groups from the party, giving him a much wider remit than simply looking after the interests of MSPs.

But with an active and vocal Scottish Secretary in London, there has been some confusion as to where Mr Gray's role ends and Mr Murphy's starts.

Mr Gray said: "I don't think it's confusing at all. I think if you look at the last six months, I think you would find that, far from being confusing, it has been extremely effective."

Mr Gray said he would not judge his own performance as leader,

but he did believe he had got the better of Mr Salmond at First Minister's Questions.

"FMQs I enjoy," he said "I think I have shown I am well capable of putting the First Minister on the spot and forcing him not only to have to defend himself with some difficulty but, on a number of issues I have raised, he has ended up reversing his position, for example local income tax."

He added: "I have read in the press that he likes to take a presidential approach to the First Minister's post and I think that has been demonstrated sometimes in FMQs – I think that shows when one sometimes feels he is not as on top of the detail as he might be."

Hamish Macdonell: Labour decision pulls the rug out from under the Nationalists and could leave two-year vacuum

ALEX Salmond's administration has axed bridge tolls, saved casualty departments and ended the graduate endowment for students.

But as far as Nationalists are concerned, there was only ever going to be one barometer of SNP success in government – and that was independence.

The decision by Iain Gray, the Scottish Labour leader, to effectively rule out any support from his party for a referendum on independence means it is now extremely unlikely the SNP bill on a referendum will get past its first stage in the parliament.

All three opposition parties are united on the issue now. They do not believe the referendum should be an issue "at this time" – and by that they mean in the course of this parliament. It is impossible to be absolutely categoric on this issue and declare the referendum is absolutely dead, because both Labour and the Liberal Democrats have changed their positions in the past.

Just last, year Tavish Scott, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, said he was not "intuitively against" a referendum, but now he is.

Last year, Wendy Alexander, then the Scottish Labour leader, declared: "Bring it on," and called for an immediate referendum.

But barring a major reversal from one of the main Unionist parties, it is difficult – if not impossible – to see from where the SNP is going to get its support.

So with what does this leave us?

One of the biggest legacies is the significant hole this leaves in the SNP programme for government.

The Nationalists published their referendum bill in draft form in 2007 and started the National Conversation to promote their case for independence. But without the possibility of actual legislation getting through the parliament at the end of the process, this will now appear to be something of an empty exercise.

In parliamentary terms, this will also be significant. The SNP has already dropped its plans for a local income tax, it has a fight on its hands over its alcohol crackdown and it now appears its referendum bill will not get past its first half-day in the parliament.

Taken together, that leaves a distinct lack of legislative progress for the final two years of the parliament.

Indeed, it could be argued we are now in a very long election campaign, with little to fight over in the chamber and everything now focused on 2011.

If nothing else, the fact that proper, ground-breaking legislation has ground to a halt after just two years of a parliamentary term is hardly a good recommendation for minority government.