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Tory win likely to make more Scots vote for independence

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Published Date: 08 September 2008
A QUARTER of Scots would be more likely to vote for independence if the Conservatives win power in Westminster, a poll suggested yesterday.
The YouGov study revealed that 34 per cent are in favour of independence and 50 per cent are against. But the same sample showed that 25 per cent would be more likely to support independence under a Tory government.

The poll, which was a sample o
f 1,355 adults, would support the strategy currently pursued by Alex Salmond, the First Minister, of holding a referendum on independence in 2010, shortly after the expected timing of a Westminster election.

Even with a handsome victory, the Tories are expected to only win one or two seats in Scotland with an optimistic hope of five seats.

The prospect has raised the spectre of a repeat of the Thatcher years where unpopular policies were forced on a Scotland that had rejected the Conservatives.

A Scottish Conservative spokesman said: "Previous polls have shown that it is the prospective re-election of Gordon Brown that threatens the future of the United Kingdom. It is Gordon Brown who is deeply unpopular in the four corners of the UK, with David Cameron and Annabel Goldie continually rated much higher."

But there was some compensation for Ms Goldie, the Scottish Conservative leader, in the poll, which suggested more people could see her as First Minister than any of the three Labour leadership candidates.

Ms Goldie polled 8 per cent against 7 per cent for Cathy Jamieson, 5 per cent for Andy Kerr and just 3 per cent for the supposed front-runner, Iain Gray.

All of them were far behind Mr Salmond's 41 per cent.

The SNP claimed that it "humiliated" Mr Gray, but a Labour spokesman said that the poll simply reflected that there was a three-way contest and "there's only one Annabel Goldie".





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  • Last Updated: 07 September 2008 9:48 PM
  • Source: The Scotsman
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Scottish independence
 
1

ThomasP,

08/09/2008 00:07:17
The Nationalists will bring back Independence to Scotland.
2

Willie Macleod,

Wick 08/09/2008 01:06:07
# 1 The people will bring back Independence in a referendum.

If it is a yes vote I will be looking to join a left of centre party or grouping in any realignment
3

Traquir , Alba,

08/09/2008 01:21:24
Interesting results :

50% - ProUnion - 34% Pro Independence
& 16% don't know

Assuming quite reasonably that don't knows
split 50/34 then the results are

59.52% - Pro Union - 40.48% Pro Independence

Of course the Unionistas will complain about
this democratic re-balancing since they prefer
undemocratic means like the notorious 40%
rule where they could the don't knows and the
dead as pro-Union - see tinyurl.com/5br886
Fortunately since these type of
deceptive practices where highlighted
at the highest levels in Europe by
organizations such as Scotland-UN
(see tinyurl.com/5eluwr )
it is unlikely the British establishment
will be able to repeat their pattern of
electoral fraud.

Assuming further as per the YouGov that a further
25% when England again imposes a Conservative
Era on Scotland would turn to being pro-independence
the results change yet further.
It is not clear whether they mean 25% of those
being pro-Union converting to pro-independence
or 25% more pro-independence supporters.
In either case both scenarios give a majority
for pro-independence.

49.40% - Pro Union - 59.60% Pro Independence
44.64% - Pro Union - 55.35% Pro Independence

No wonder the "Scottish" Labour sycophants
are running around like headless chickens and
why the Scotsman is unable, more likely
unwilling, to do some basic analysis of the
polling figures. Rather they just report 34%
and they ignore the impact of don't knows nor
the very significant consequence of the high
likelihood that the overwhelming majority
in England again dictates the governing regime
of Scotland.

Saor Alba

4

muppetfinder,

08/09/2008 01:42:49
"Ms Goldie, the Scottish Conservative leader, in the poll, which suggested more people could see her as First Minister than any of the three Labour leadership candidates."

8% isn't much and it is half the tory support so half the tories don't want her either
5

Scullion,

Canada 08/09/2008 01:50:42
Politics does indeed follow a strange logic as it would seem, according to this article, that Scots Nationalists will be hoping for a Conservative victory with no representation from Scotland.
6

Boy Wonder,

08/09/2008 02:01:52
I don't believe in polls ... but I think this one is truer than most. Just not for the reason the Tories give! They'll never rule in Scotland again!
7

Boy Wonder,

08/09/2008 02:01:58
I don't believe in polls ... but I think this one is truer than most. Just not for the reason the Tories give! They'll never rule in Scotland again!
8

Greatscot....,

London 08/09/2008 04:10:47
Scotland never ceases to amaze me in being the last place on Earth where people still believe in Left of centre politics. Any reasonable person can see that those countries who remain to the Left remain in ever deepening poverty while those countries who move to the Right have happier, healthier and wealthier populations. What is it about this that the Scots can't figure out? Why do they continue to vote for misery?

A hundred years of losing their brightest and best to emigration has definitely had a visible impact of the intellect of those remaining.
9

Mercutio,

FALKIRK 08/09/2008 04:43:13
The SNP is riddled with displaced communists,it would fracture in the event of Scotland gaining independence.
10

Guga II,

Rockall 08/09/2008 06:09:01
#9.

You off your meds again?
11

W U Merchant,

Aberdeen 08/09/2008 07:06:17
A Tory win wil see hundreds of nationalists return to their original home ie the Tory Party.
12

,

08/09/2008 07:53:09
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
13

,

08/09/2008 07:56:46
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
14

,

08/09/2008 07:57:45
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
15

Yok Finney,

Ross-shire 08/09/2008 08:05:28
The move to the right has got the very rich richer; the rest of us work longer hours for less. Are we happier?

"We are exploited by a corporate structure — by the 'military-industrial complex' Dwight Eisenhower warned us against in his farewell address to the nation. Eisenhower got the term 'military-industrial complex' from Mussolini, who was describing Fascism. These are words you don't want to use in our society."

Though I don't think the old bickering politics of right and left are very helpful when we're needing an independent scottish government for national reconstruction. It'll be our government to mobilise the land, people, skills that we have. We'll make it to get to grips with matters of sound financing, currency, landownership, education, infrastructure that the lunatic system called the UK has messed up to badly.

Many Scots did emigrate when we were treated as a northern colonial outpost for the cosy boys of the Scottish Office, or we disproportionately died in British wars. Signs of intelligence and initiative here will bring talent home. It's all to play for.
16

Rev. S. Campbell,

Bath 08/09/2008 08:20:49
#3 Your arithmetic's a bit off. 49.4 plus 59.6 is 110%...
17

DaveK,

Edinburgh 08/09/2008 08:46:59
Well we didn't rush for indepedence when New Labour got in, and they are bigger tories than the current Cameron lot. A rose by any other name and all that.
18

Rev. S. Campbell,

Bath 08/09/2008 08:54:35
#19 When New Labour got in we didn't know they were Transformers - Tories In Disguise. It took a fair few years for most people to see through their lies, because we didn't want to let go of the euphoria we all felt at finally getting rid of the (real) Tories. Now all but the most blinkered can see the truth.
19

Mr. Lachie Todd,

Edinburgh 08/09/2008 09:05:23
All the Scots Unionist political parties, even including the Tories, are undoubtedly full of crypto-Nationalists.

However, IF, the Conservative Party is likely to be returned in England at the next General Election, then the Scots have long memories.

Many tens of thousands of Scots voters will desert their traditional parties and vote in droves for the Nationalists, simply to protect the Devolution settlement, and ensure the Tories have no mandate North of the Border. Independence is another matter.

20

Ken S.,

Reading 08/09/2008 09:41:20
#21 Mr. Lachie Todd,
"..vote in droves for the Nationalists, simply to protect the Devolution settlement, and ensure the Tories have no mandate North of the Border. Independence is another matter."

I can't see that current devolution is under any threat from Tories. The Clarke proposals "English votes for English laws" are nothing more than a miniscule and illusory tweak as a minimal sop to rising English discontent. Firstly there are no indications that the proposals would achieve such an objective and secondly there are as yet no indications that they will be taken into Tory official policy anyway.

Your reference to Unionist crypto-nationalists is very perceptive. A significant election result for SNP, even though for some Unionists it may be a protest vote, will accelerate independence. That of course is a great prospect for those who seek independence but may be a bit of a shock for SNP voters who don't.

A Unionist who wants to put two fingers up at the Libdem/Lab/Tory consortium should opt for some other party. Aside from its EU stance, UKIP advocates an English parliament to balance up the devolution settlement; ergo more devolution but within the union/federation.

Not that I am against independence but it would be a pity if we separated by default rather than by positive desire.

Genuine yearning for independence
= Vote SNP

Genuine yearning to remain in the Union
= Don't vote SNP
21

Ken S.,

Reading 08/09/2008 10:14:41
#23 The Spook in Leith,
"Plenty of safe anchorage on the upper Thames."

Bit shallow up this stretch - but I suppose it would cut down on transport from where the warheads are made just down the road at Aldermaston and Burghfield.


... or were you under the misapprehension that we were just using Scotland to keep the nasty bits away from the cosy South-east?
22

Dragonhead,

Dalian,China 08/09/2008 10:15:30
A Tory victory will have more Scots voting for Independence.Obviously all the cloth cap lefties have learnt little from the past 12 years.Why does that not surprise me. If Scots think that Scotland will be a better place post Independence,then they are in for a rude shock. Another 200 or 300 years hence,perhaps, after the enemy within lefties are put back where they belong working instead of trying to lead. They don't seem to have done too well so far ever.
23

Ken S.,

Reading 08/09/2008 10:37:58
#27 The Spook in Leith,
"Of course i was thinking about the transport scenario"

Your concern is much appreciated. Our leafy little lanes do get so awfully congested with all this stuff trundling by ;-)
24

Highland Mighty©,

08/09/2008 16:24:20
24. Brilliant. Another sucker still peddling that ridiculous pile of thoroughly discredited nonsense that is the 'Great Deception'.

So, this report "blows holes in Unionism", does it?

Let's compare this work of an amateur with....how about the SNP's figures? Is that okay?

GD: Betting and Gaming revenue should be £121m.
SNP-GERS: Betting and Gaming Revenue is £95m
*GD is wrong by 21.5%*

GD: Non-North Sea Corporation Tax should be £4.322bn.
SNP-GERS: Non-North Sea CT is £3.019bn.
*GD is wrong by 30%*

GD: Inheritance Tax should be £297m.
SNP-GERS: Inheritance Tax revenue is £228m.
*GD is wrong by 23%*

GD: Council Taxes should total £2.006bn.
SNP-GERS: Council Taxes total £1.812bn.
*GD is wrong by 9.7%*

GD: Defence expenditure should be £954m.
SNP-GERS: Defence expenditure is £2.729bn
*GD is wrong by a whopping 65%!*

GD: Public safety expenditure should be £1.817bn.
SNP-GERS: Public safety expenditure is £2.292bn.
*GD is wrong by 21%*
25

Highland Mighty©,

08/09/2008 16:33:06
Forgot a line:

GD: Net balance is a surplus of £1.873bn.
SNP-GERS: Net balance is a deficit of £2.7bn.
*GD is wrong by £4.573bn*
26

argonaut,

east lothian 08/09/2008 17:15:12
the tories have strategically given up on scotland. Their eye is as usual fixated on middle lower england, its impossible for Labour to win in 2010, they are shortly about to detonate and implode, other posts are correct - scotland will reject the tories and most will for good reason vote SNP. Its a strange world when so many scots are looking forward to tory government winning westminister and the leader is a Cameron ! History will show a direct descendant of one of Scotlands ancient families becoming the leader of the UK and then watching it fragment before him, as scotland goes it alone....ironic
27

Ken S.,

Reading 08/09/2008 17:51:49
#34 argonaut
"..the tories have strategically given up on scotland. Their eye is as usual fixated on middle lower england"

There are many of us in that category who, on the contrary, feel that the Tories are so fixated on paying any price to keep Scotland in the Union, that they are doing b-- all for what might otherwise be regarded as their core vote.

There are inklings that ordinary non-extremist folk may increasingly cast votes for BNP as a protest at being ignored.

Poll leads do of course consistently indicate certain victory for the Tories in England. I'm not so sure that, come the day, this is guaranteed. A vote against Labour is not automatically the same as casting one positively for Tories. Labour could retain some seats by default because of the anti vote being fragmented between small parties.
28

Traquir , Alba,

08/09/2008 20:40:31
18 Rev. S. Campbell,

"#3 Your arithmetic's a bit off. 49.4 plus 59.6 is 110%..."

Oops slight typo clearly my second 9 should
have be a zero :( Results should have been
49.4% and 50.6%.

Actually The Herald confirms that the pro-independence
support in this poll exceeds the unionist support.

The results they quote are 50% in favour
and 41% against. Factoring in the don't knows
proportionally this gives
54.95% in favour of independence and
45.5% against.

see - tinyurl.com/6l5kdx

Clearly support for independence is way above
the 23% cited by the enobled members of the Calman
review, and it is nice again to see the Unionistas
moving in the minority - not surprising given
their indefensible position to defend this
rotting Union for some ungodly reason.

Saor Alba
29

Traquir , Alba,

08/09/2008 20:50:07
36 sm753,

Interesting that you cite an "amateur" such as HM
who would appear to have absolutely no qualifications
on the topic of GERS/accounting. On the other hand
Niall Aslen is very well qualified and experienced.
Additionally if any further validation is required
of Niall's skills you may refer to the GERS 2006 which
takes in account many of the corrections highlighted
by Niall previously. Do you think it is just
co-incidence that under an SNP Government
the independent GERS report showed a surplus
for the first time, yet never showed this
whilst under Westiminster/Labour control.
There were blatant errors and no doubt many
more as pointed out by Niall in
The Great Obfuscation
see tinyurl.com/6m3w2t

Interesting however that you ignore the
evidence here and with your latest partner
HM continue to talk Scotland down as some
subsidy junkie that can't possible survive and
prosper in her own right. Simply pathetic,
have some confidence and pride in Scotland,
assuming of course that is your country
of nationality.

Saor Alba
30

Traquir , Alba,

08/09/2008 20:55:28
30 Highland Mighty©,

"24. Brilliant. Another sucker still peddling that ridiculous pile of thoroughly discredited nonsense that is the 'Great Deception'."

You sir are the amateur as you have amply proven
again and again. However continue to talk
Scotland and her capabilities down - your
sycophantic drivel helps to boost the number
for independence as we can see in this
article.

Feel free to lay our your professional
qualifications before us if you dare, but
somewhat unlikely that a spineless troll
like yourself will be willing to put your
"professional" reputation on the line as
Niall has done.



31

Traquir , Alba,

08/09/2008 21:02:32
16 sm753,

"Traquir

Weren't you here last week when the "Scotland-UN" hoax was finally debunked?

Don't you know "Dr" Wilkie of "Vienna" and his confreres have been scrabbling about taking some of the more nonsensical documents off their website, putting up a list of references, and finding that the supposed centrepiece of their evidence is a deeply boring document about county councils?

You're just embarassing yourself by referring to them."

Hmm, looks to me that you were that one
that was embarrassed when the topic was
previously discussed. From what I recall
you have problems even using web links
properly never mind trying to engage
in mature debate.

see - tinyurl.com/68ta93

One snippet for you -

202 sm753,

199-201 Traquir

""major problems" of democracy
in the UK (and 5 ex-Communist countries)
were found after an independent review by the COE and
indeed it was officially noted that the establishing
of the Scottish Parliament significantly mitigated
these highlighted "major problems". "

Oh really?

Documents and references please.

"Dr" "Wilkie" hasn't been able to provide them. Can you?

To which my response was

Well actually I just followed the link that Dr Wilkie
provided recently and again today and followed
the hyper links of the document supporting the claims.
I assume you do know how to follow hyperlinks
and read documents ? In the case of the "major problems" I mentioned the specific link is

see - tinyurl.com/5cygh7

I would also point out that I have
read many of Dr Wilkies
posts in the past and his knowledge of Scottish
history is something I have found to be very
insightful, invariably factual and very educational.
He is clearly an expert on many aspects of
Scottish affairs both current and historic,
which is in stunning contrast to your
perpetual griping and the lack of educational
or knowledgeable contents in your posts.

Slàinte mhor a h-uile là a chi 's nach fhaic


32

guenevere,

09/09/2008 17:07:27
This is the most biased twoddle ever! How can anyone say who others will vote for. David Cameron is NOT Maggie Thatcher,christ, Brown is nearer to "Thatcherism" than Cameron, instead of trying to second guess what the Tories will or won't do,try giving them a chance.
33

Sconglish,

09/09/2008 18:21:29
@42 "try giving [the tories] a chance"

I think I may have to add them to that list along with incest and morris dancing instead.

Roll on 2010

 

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