Labour fears Cameron could deliver Scotland to the SNP

SCOTTISH Labour MPs have given a stark warning that the country will become independent within a few years unless the party wakes up to the threat of a Conservative government at Westminster.

They fear a General Election win for David Cameron could drive voters into the SNP's hands as the Nationalists would be seen as the "lesser of two evils".

SNP figures admit privately that a Tory victory would be good for their cause, allowing them to accuse Mr Cameron of having no mandate to govern in Scotland, where the Tories admit they are unlikely to add many – if any – seats. There is only one Tory MP in Scotland at present.

Labour MPs in Scotland have become so concerned about the party's loss of support in the wake of the scrapping of the 10p income tax band that six or seven of them held secret discussions with the party's deputy leader, Harriet Harman.

One MP, who attended the crisis talks this week, told The Scotsman: "We clearly want to win the next General Election but there is a serious problem here after the 10p tax debacle, rising cost of living and fuel duties."

A General Election is due by May 2010, while the SNP has promised to bring forward a referendum bill by 2010 outlining its plans for the plebiscite.

A Tory government at Westminster could give fresh impetus to the SNP's aims – with a Nationalist victory in the 2011 Holyrood elections being the precursor to an independence vote in a referendum during the Nationalists' second term.

Ms Harman, who addressed the recent Scottish Labour conference and takes a keen interest in the party's support north of the Border, was warned that "not getting the policies right" could risk the potential break-up of the United Kingdom.

"What worries us is what the people of Scotland might do if faced with a Conservative government in Westminster, and a choice of voting for independence," the MP said.

The concern had consumed "a number of MPs" for the past year, he said. There were also fears that, despite sentimentality towards the Union, the Conservatives would not be as committed as they claim to keeping the UK together. Polls show Mr Cameron could enter Downing Street with a commanding majority even without adding to the party's single seat in Scotland.

The source continued: "While David Cameron says nice things about the Union, it could well not be in the best interests of the Tories electorally to hold that Union together. People could vote for independence as they would see the Nationalists as the lesser of two evils."

MPs campaigning in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, where the Tories overturned a 7,000 Labour majority to win by 8,000 votes, were stunned by voters' hostility.

Ms Harman, a London MP, had been "switched on" to the potential consequences for the Union after the meeting, he said.

"We cannot guarantee that when it comes to whether people want to live under a Conservative government from Westminster or perhaps look at independence, they won't go for the latter.

"The one thing the people of Scotland have rejected is what the Conservatives did to the country 18 years ago. We remember that and we don't want to go back to that."

The views were echoed by another Scottish MP in a marginal seat, who said: "A Conservative victory in Westminster would add fuel to the Nationalists' fervour in Scotland. I'm sure Alex Salmond goes to bed at night praying for a Conservative win."

We won't be hate figures this time, say Tories

Ross Lydall

IT IS mooted as the SNP's dream scenario: an incoming Conservative government at Westminster with barely a single Tory MP north of the Border.

What could better advance the cause of independence, runs the argument, than a right-wing administration led by a very English politician for whom few Scots voted?

It is a concern of which the Conservatives – and their leader David Cameron – are only too well aware. And while a general election may yet be two years away, the party is tackling head-on the suggestion that it could play into the hands of Alex Salmond, the First Minister, if it fails to make gains in Scotland.

At present, the Tories hold only one Scottish constituency – Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, where David Mundell has a 1,738 majority.

There would be no doubt a Tory government would herald big changes for Scotland. Benefits would be harder to obtain, Scotland may get a smaller slice of the UK "cake" and Trident submarines may be replaced.

But Mr Cameron insists he wants to govern Britain as a whole – regardless of how many MPs he has in Scotland. "I want to be prime minister of the United Kingdom – all of it, including Scotland," he told the Scottish Tory conference last month.

Aiming his comments at Mr Salmond, the Tory leader continued: "I know you've got a plan. I know you think a Conservative government at Westminster will ignore what Scotland wants and needs, and that you will use such claims to promote your separatist agenda. Well, think again.

"To the people of Scotland, I make this guarantee. Whatever the outcome in Scotland of the next General Election, a Conservative government will govern the whole of the United Kingdom, including Scotland, with respect."

Tory insiders are quick to deflect the obvious points of attack: that Mr Cameron is "too English" to appeal to most Scots; that nationalism is on an upward rise; and that Scotland will never forget the Thatcher years of unemployment, factory closures and the poll tax.

On the first point, they cite the success of another public schoolboy – albeit one born and educated in Edinburgh. Scotland voted willingly for Tony Blair, they say – noting ruefully that in 1997 not a single Tory MP was elected north of the Border.

As for nationalism, the Tories point to recent polls suggesting independence is supported by only a third of Scots.

Then there is the Thatcher question. But it is 18 years since the Iron Lady left Downing Street. The Tories in Scotland, led by Annabel Goldie, bear little resemblance to the party Lady Thatcher led in the 1980s.

As for the Thatcher crimes, the party has more than done the time.

"We have been round the houses on the poll tax many times," sighed Mr Mundell, the Tory shadow Secretary of State for Scotland. "We bore the electoral consequences of our actions, which is how a democracy should work." The lesson had been learned. "We are not going to bring forward policies specifically for Scotland that don't command support in Scotland."

Mr Cameron, too, has done his utmost to cast off the shadow of Thatcherism, speaking of a "series of blunders (which] were committed in the 1980s and 1990s, of which the imposition of the poll tax was the most egregious," when addressing Scottish Tories in Glasgow in 2006.

On the ground, the position is different, too. Opinion polls since the start of the year have given Mr Cameron a positive satisfaction rating – currently +33 points. By comparison, Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister, has a -61 points rating, which makes him even less of an electoral asset to Labour than Michael Foot, who led the party to a disastrous defeat in 1983.

Mr Cameron now ranks well above Mr Brown when respondents are asked who would make the best Prime Minister. These polls are conducted on a UK-wide basis, with normally only 100 of the 1,000 or so responses coming from Scotland. But Tory strategists insist Mr Cameron still out-performs Mr Brown north of the Border – in spite of, or perhaps as a result of, Mr Brown's own Scots nationality.

A spokesman for Ms Goldie said a "poll of polls" put Tory support in Scotland at 21 per cent – up from the 16 per cent share of the vote achieved at the 2005 general election.

On the ground, activists – desperate to claim their leader is more popular than some believe – insist that the Cameron "brand" goes down well. Tory parliamentary candidate Peter Duncan, who will contest Dumfries and Galloway, said voters were more interested in the failings of Mr Brown than Baroness Thatcher. "I don't detect a hangover from those days," he said.

But a fall in the number of Scottish parliamentary constituencies, from 72 to 59, has made it more difficult for the party to win under the first past the post system. As a result, it will struggle to make more than two or three gains. The party's new Scottish chairman, Andrew Fulton, dared only to hope for a "full people carrier of Scottish MPs".

Mr Mundell said yesterday: "It's inevitable that a Conservative government will not have many MPs in Scotland. We are not pretending otherwise. That is a fact: it's not a matter of conjecture. We are not going to go from one to 20 MPs."

In his Ayr speech, Mr Cameron said Scots were "crying out" for a "strong, sensible and moderate centre-right party" and pledged to fight the "ugly stain of separatism seeping through the Union flag".

Mr Mundell denied this meant it would be impossible for a Tory prime minister to work with Mr Salmond.

"Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness have managed to work together for the benefit of Northern Ireland," he said. "I'm sure Alex Salmond and a Conservative government will be able to work together for the benefit of Scotland."

From majority of seats to an electoral wipeout

THE Conservative Party once held the majority of seats in Scotland, having campaigned on a Unionist platform at the 1955 general election.

But that dominance was lost to Labour in 1959 and it has never since been the largest party north of the Border.

One political figure is blamed for the Tory demise in Scotland – Margaret Thatcher. Britain's first woman prime minister never won over the Scots, even before she took power. With a Labour government in serious decline, she failed to lead the Tories to victory in the 1978 Berwick and East Lothian by-election.

In power, she was even more hated as efforts to take on the unions and the closing down of formerly state-supported industries began and mass unemployment took hold.

The crunch came in 1989 with the poll tax. Baroness Thatcher was accused of using Scotland to test out the deeply unpopular policy, and this sealed her and the Tories' fate north of the Border. In reality, she was persuaded to bring it in early in Scotland as a rates recalculation was about to take place.

Arguably, she had already lost Scotland in the 1987 general election when the Tories' share of seats was halved to just ten.

Her famous "Sermon on the Mound" to the Church of Scotland's General Assembly in 1988, when she quoted St Paul saying "If a man will not work he shall not eat," to justify her philosophy, won her little support. Presenting the Scottish Cup shortly after did not help.

The Tories were wiped out in Scotland when they lost all their seats in the 1997 general election.

Challenges for Conservatives

THE Conservatives are hampered by two main problems in their battle to win more seats in Scotland.

One factor is that the party currently has only one MP in Scotland. The other is that it is against the SNP, not Labour, that they need to make advances.

The most winnable seat for the Tories is Dumfries and Galloway, currently held by Labour ministerial aide Russell Brown with a majority of 2,922.

Other targets include Angus and Perth and North Perthshire, held respectively by Nationalists Mike Weir and Pete Wishart.

But more symbolic gains would be achieved if they could unseat Labour ministers Anne McGuire in Stirling, Jim Murphy in East Renfrewshire and Alistair Darling in Edinburgh South West. But here the majorities range from 4,800 to 7,200, making this a big task.

IN NUMBERS

1
number of Scottish Tory MPs currently at Westminster

10
Number of MPs Tories hope to have in Scotland after the next general election

17
number of Tory MSPs at Holyrood

22
Number of Scottish Tory Westminster seats when Margaret Thatcher took the Conservatives to power in 1979

53
Number of years since the Conservatives were the largest party in Scotland

2,922
Majority the Tories need to overturn to win the target seat of Dumfries and Galloway

7,242
Majority the Tories need to overturn to unseat Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, in Edinburgh South West, their most hoped-for target seat