ANYONE who has spent time on racecourses or in betting shops learns to be wary of form. It's a guide, but no more than that, far from infallible. Moreover it doesn't follow that if A beat B and B beat C, A will necessarily beat C in turn. This season's international rugby should make anyone, whether pundit or fan, every bit as wary as your experienced racegoer.
Take England for example. In the pool stages of the World Cup they were humiliated by South Africa, yet went on to beat Australia and France and reach the final. For the first half of their opening Six Nations match against Wales, they looked by far
the superior side; yet lost. They went on to beat Italy in Rome and France in Paris, then crumbled at Murrayfield to a Scotland team that had lost its last four matches. How does the English form-book read?
So we come to the last day of the tournament: Scotland and Italy in Rome for the Wooden Spoon; England v Ireland at Twickenham in a match which will decide who finishes third; and Wales versus France in Cardiff for the title and, for Wales perhaps, a Grand Slam. That would be quite an achievement, a remarkable turnaround for a team that failed to reach the quarter-final of the World Cup and looked wretched for the first 40 minutes at Twickenham.
France have to win by 20 points to snatch the title, and it won't be only the Welsh who'll be unhappy if they do. Understandably, their new coach, Marc Lievremont, has upset many at home by his selection policy. You might think he has a pack of 52 players, shuffles the cards and deals out his 22-man match squad. This is, his critics say, devaluing the championship, because you should pick your best team for every match, not use the tournament to find out what your best team may be.
In Lievremont's defence, you may say that he's a new coach, that several stalwarts of the Laporte years have either retired or been injured, while Freddie Michalak has been unavailable, playing for Natal Sharks in the Super 14. So he genuinely doesn't know what his best side is, and how can he find out except by testing players?
To his credit he has spread his net far wider than Laporte ever did, calling in players from less fashionable clubs. In any case if they pull off that 20-point win in Cardiff, who shall say he has got it wrong?.
On form – that chancy thing – it's improbable that they can. Wales have been revitalised, stimulated by the new coaching team of Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards, and, since the half-time interval at Twickenham, have got better and better. Winning in Dublin for the first time in ten years has set them up for a Grand Slam that almost nobody predicted.
Admittedly Ireland are on the slide, even though Eddie O'Sullivan has quite successfully brought in some newcomers. But they still go to Twickenham without Brian O'Driscoll and with a pack that has in successive matches come off second-best against both Scotland and Wales. England should be favourites despite Brian Ashton's strange response to their defeat at Murrayfield.
Their back-row was completely outplayed, but all remain, while Jonny Wilkinson is the only player dropped. Bizarre. The result of media pressure? Probably, for Ashton seems to have succumbed to the orchestrated campaign to field young Danny Cipriani at fly-half.
His talent is unquestioned. Nevertheless it's only three weeks ago that Jonny was the match winner in Paris. When Kaiser William II dismissed Bismarck, Punch published a cartoon captioned "Dropping the Pilot"; just what Ashton too has done. Look to see David Wallace and Jamie Heaslip run hard at Cipriani, whom Wasps often move out of the No 10 position in defence.
And so to Rome where really there's little new to be said. We all look for victory, recognising that beating England last week will lose much of its lustre if we don't win again today, preferably with style.
The Italians have a better record against us than against any of the other countries in the tournament, and have been talking this week of how we not only respect them, but fear them too. Frankly, this is unlikely. Respect yes, fear no. After all we are still 5-3 ahead in Six Nations encounters, and the September World Cup win makes it six.
That said, the form-book might make Italy narrowly favourite to win this afternoon. Certainly they came closer to beating Ireland and France than we did, and they were away to both, while we played France at Murrayfield.
They have a solid and skilful pack, and we will do well to match them in the front five. Their captain and No 8 Sergio Parisse is a great player, but so is his Stade Francais colleague, Simon Taylor. In the absence of Mauro Bergamasco, who is suspended, we have an advantage in the back row as we have also at half-back.
There may be little to choose between the three-quarter lines or at full-back. Still, if we achieve parity at scrum and line-out, and if we defend as we did last week at Murrayfield, then our advantage in the back-row and at scrum-half should see us home.
On the other hand, if our defence is as porous as it was in Dublin… Well, the outcome doesn't bear thinking on. "Butchered to make a Roman holiday": that would be the verdict.
The full article contains 947 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
