Published Date:
05 April 2008
By JIM KEAN
Scots-owned runner can atone for last year's spill, with Simon fancied to follow him home
THERE'S a train of thought that says the Grand National is an easier race to solve than it used to be.
Of course it is, but only if you also believe the earth really is flat, world peace is just around the corner and the fairies at the bottom of the garden aren't a figment of your imagination.
This afternoon's Aintree marathon is undoubtedly a higher class contest these days than was once the case, but anyone who thinks that makes things any cushier for punters should have a word with themselves.
Admittedly, there is more wheat than chaff these days, so much so that this afternoon's contest may possibly be the highest class field ever to assemble for the race with no horse running out of the handicap and just nineteen pounds separating top and bottom weight.
No way, however, does that simplify matters.
Both of my regular readers, visions of grandeur perhaps, will know the National isn't really my favourite race but at least it's a classier event these days so while in the past a line could safely be drawn through a fair chunk of the field, the list of real no-hopers is now a pretty slim volume. Whether or not you want to file The Scotsman's selections in that file is a matter of choice.
Comply or Die, Mr Pointment, old favourite Hedgehunter and basically anything sent over from Ireland given the visitors' tremendous record in the National are worth considering.
Here though, are the votes of the Scotsman jury.
In fourth place will be Turko, who is very inexperienced for the rough-and-tumble of the National but has a bit of class and appears to be quietly fancied by trainer Paul Nicholls.
The last time one as young as him, Turko not Nicholls, triumphed, was during the First World War when the National was run at Gatwick.
Apparently it wasn't staged at Heathrow's new Terminal 5 in case the runners ended up in Milan.
If he jumps round, it's hard to see how favourite Cloudy Lane can be kept out of the frame given the National pedigree of his stable and the fact he would be carrying almost a stone and half more if the handicapper was allowed second thoughts on events at Liverpool.
Since the publication of the weights, Donald McCain junior's charge has gone from strength to strength but the problem is his odds have gone in the opposite direction.
Anyone who holds an ante-post voucher at a big price on the Trevor Hemmings owned gelding will justifiably feel like a dog with two tails but for those of us who have missed the boat, there may be better value to be found elsewhere. Simon, for instance, who capsized at Valentine's on the second circuit 12 months ago when still travelling strongly.
Coming a cropper over the notorious Aintree fences may hardly seem the ideal grounding for a return visit but West Tip didn't manage to get round in 1985 only to come back a year later and rout the field.
Which brings us neatly to Bewleys Berry who boasts a similar profile to Simon having been a casualty in the race last year when still looking to have plenty of running left in him.
On that occasion, he was still in front at Becher's on the second circuit when making his exit but that mishap apart, the Graham Wylie owned ten-year-old, around 14-1, has twice shown he's more than capable of taking on the National fences by putting in a clear round.
As ever, there are question marks hanging over many in today's race as regards stamina and jumping ability so rather than trying to be smart, why not just stick with a horse who has been there, done it, and almost bought the T-shirt.
On his last start, Bewleys Berry was, admittedly, a major disappointment at Haydock but a flick through the form book shows he also flopped in the same race twelve months ago and that didn't stop him in the National. Maybe when it comes to visiting Merseyside, he just prefers Aintree to Haydock.
Women lead the fieldWOMEN are set to get one over on the men – and the bookies – as Britain's girls gear up for a £300 million Grand National betting bonanza.
Ladbrokes report that when it comes to finding the winner, women repeatedly overshadow men – and the bookies are already running scared of the female flutter. Last year, 30 per cent of Britain's men had a punt but more than 40 per cent of women had a bet on the famous race.
David Williams of Ladbrokes said: "Women lead the way on Grand National day. Year in year out, girls seem to find the winner more easily whilst blokes appear to struggle. Not many people backed Silver Birch last year but our stats show well over half the lucky punters were girls, but nobody seems to know why."
With no mares running this year and no female jockeys lining up, Ladbrokes are struggling to spot where the big female gamble will come from. "At 50-1 Idle Talk could be the one," suggested Williams.
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Last Updated:
04 April 2008 11:43 PM
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Source:
The Scotsman
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Location:
Edinburgh
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Related Topics:
Grand National