Fraser Brown: I don't agree with some Edinburgh-Glasgow analysis - why expect Warriors to prevail again

Our columnist predicts closer contest but wheel cannot be reinvented in such short turnaround

It’s the second leg of the 1872 Cup on Saturday but I wouldn’t be expecting a Barbarians style spectacle when the teams meet at Scottish Gas Murrayfield. If anything, I think it’ll be a closer game. I think the weather will be pretty horrible again and Edinburgh are going to be smarting after the 22-10 defeat last Friday.

I read a load of stuff over the weekend about how Edinburgh were the better team for 50-60 minutes and then they were a bit undisciplined in the final 20 and Glasgow took advantage and won the game. I don’t agree at all with that assessment. Firstly, I thought Glasgow defended brilliantly. I don’t mean this to sound dismissive, and I know WP Nel scored a try, but I never felt in that first 50 minutes that Glasgow were under any real threat from Edinburgh. I thought Glasgow perhaps could have played a bit smarter in terms of looking for territory and kicked longer, particularly in the first half. Glasgow looked to kick short and ended up stuck in their own half for large parts of the first 50 minutes.The biggest surprise was the lack of threat from the Edinburgh backs. Before last week’s game I said that nine and 10 were the key battlegrounds and I think it’ll be the same at Murrayfield. I think Edinburgh looked to kick too much at Scotstoun and they actually created a lot of space on the edge but they didn’t play what was in front of them. They looked like they were too rigid and regimented in sticking to their gameplan.

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Glasgow like to keep the ball in hand, they are a more of a possession-based team than others in the league and I’m sure Edinburgh were looking to kick deep into Glasgow territory and force them to play out from the back. This pretty much what we saw in the first half but Edinburgh were no way near clinical enough, especially given how excellent Glasgow were in defence. If you aren’t able to assert dominance and convert territory and possession when you have it then you’ll be made to pay!

Glasgow Warriors and Edinburgh do battle once again this weekend.Glasgow Warriors and Edinburgh do battle once again this weekend.
Glasgow Warriors and Edinburgh do battle once again this weekend.

Glasgow loyalties aside, I was really looking forward to seeing that Edinburgh backline firing, with Ali Price at nine and Ben Healy at 10. I also liked the look of the centre combination and the back three is obviously very dangerous, but they never caught fire. No matter the conditions, Edinburgh have to be more threatening with ball in hand at Murrayfield or Glasgow will just defend it all day again.

The bigger pitch might suit Edinburgh. Darcy Graham was probably Edinburgh’s most threatening player in the first leg, and that’s not surprising because Darcy is usually the most threatening player in any match, regardless of who he’s playing for or who the opposition are. But I just don’t feel Edinburgh got their big attacking threats into the game enough. You’ve got Duhan van der Merwe on one wing and Darcy on the other; you have to get them more involved.

Duhan’s carrying stats are always incredible in terms of the metres he makes but he’s making that distance off the back of four or five carries per game. In reality, you should be getting those carrying stats into double figures for both Duhan and Darcy in every game. They're the ones who get you over the gainline, they beat defenders, they get you quick ball, and when you get these things then all of a sudden you have guys like Hamish Watson, Bill Mata and Pierre Schoeman rolling onto front-foot carries which makes it so much harder for Glasgow to slow down their breakdown and get their defence set.If you take out Edinburgh’s two best strike-runners and limit their involvement it can become quite one-dimensional and easier for Glasgow to defend, so Edinburgh need to find a way to be more threatening with ball in hand. Glasgow are not going to kick too much so Edinburgh can’t rely on their counter-attacking threat because Glasgow won’t want to feed the opposition’s two best strike-runners.

Tactically, I don’t think we’ll see too many changes. You can’t reinvent the wheel with Christmas Day and Boxing Day disrupting your training week. Each team’s probably had three days to work on things between matches, so what you took into the first game is probably what you take into the second game. The strike-plays will be pretty much the same, maybe with slight tweaks. The two teams know each other very well so it’s going to come down to who takes their opportunities. Glasgow did that in the first leg, although they left a number of chances out there with some lineout inaccuracies five metres out.

A lot will be expected on Edinburgh half-back duo Ben Healy and Ali Price.A lot will be expected on Edinburgh half-back duo Ben Healy and Ali Price.
A lot will be expected on Edinburgh half-back duo Ben Healy and Ali Price.

Glasgow were the more clinical team. Edinburgh were battering down the door but only came away with points on two occasions. The team that has the best basics and is most clinical in the 22 is going to edge it and I fancy Glasgow to win by four. They are down to the bare bones in some areas but I still think they are good enough to go away from home and win again.