Blair 'to quit as MP' on leaving No10, but who will take him seriously as Middle East peacemaker?

Key quote

"The prospects for a two-state solution are evaporating in front of our eyes. So this is tokenistic - it won't do Tony Blair any good, it won't do peace any good or the Middle East any good." - CLARE SHORT

Story in full THE joke goes that Tony Blair was only offered the role of Middle East envoy because George Bush is busy being president of the United States for the next 18 months.

Nevertheless, after a heated meeting between the power-brokers in the region, the outgoing Prime Minister will today be officially named as envoy to the Middle East of the so-called Quartet - the US, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations - in a bid to revive peace talks.

Clare Short, his former international development secretary, summed up the view of many of his critics when she said: "I don't know whether we should laugh or cry."

She went on: "The prospects for a two-state solution are evaporating in front of our eyes. So this is tokenistic - it won't do Tony Blair any good, it won't do peace any good or the Middle East any good."

It emerged last night that Mr Blair is expected to stand down as an MP to take on the job, breaking a previous promise that he would not trigger a by-election in his Sedgefield constituency.

But instead of immediately pursuing the lucrative lecture circuit, he will instead turn to the region where he is arguably least welcome: the Middle East.

The challenges he faces in securing peace between Israel and a Palestinian territory that is now geographically and politically divided will make the decade of wrangling with Gordon Brown seem trivial.

At his final press conference at No 10, flanked by Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Hollywood actor turned California governor, Mr Blair gave a strong hint about his future, saying: "I think that anybody who cares about greater peace and stability in the world knows that a lasting and enduring resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian issue is essential.

"And I will do whatever I can to help such a resolution come about."

Anthony Seldon, the Prime Minister's biographer, told The Scotsman the Middle East role would suit him. "He's really good at bringing people together and has shown that in Northern Ireland," he said. "The same impulse is motivating him here."

Dr Seldon said Mr Blair's faith also played a part and he wanted to "stand up against evil", adding: "But he doesn't see Christianity as superior to Islam."

It is four years since the Quartet launched its attempt to kick-start the peace process in the form of the "road map". Following a failed attempt to hold a conference on the Middle East in London, Dr Seldon said the Prime Minister could now feel emboldened as a "free agent" after earlier frustration that efforts to get the road map back on track had been dominated by the US.

Dr Mike Grojean, an organisational psychologist and head of executive education at Aston Business School in Birmingham, said accepting the role made it clear Mr Blair still wanted to "give back". He said: "He probably has a strong feeling that his job is not done yet. There is a sense of incompleteness, and the Middle East poses the biggest possible challenge in the world today."

Mr Blair would relish this confrontation, Dr Grojean said, adding: "He has never backed down from a fight."

Initially, it looked like the Russians were preparing to block Mr Blair's appointment. A US spokesman denied these reports, but admitted that "the Russians are the least enthusiastic about creating the position and least enthusiastic about Blair, but they didn't object. No one objected".

In Moscow, the Kremlin released a statement saying Mr Blair had called President Vladimir Putin, and the Russian leader had given his blessing to Blair becoming the Quartet's envoy.

According to US officials, Mr Blair's new job will be primarily to help the Palestinian Authority to build political institutions, and it will not - at least to begin with - involve direct negotiations between the Palestinians and Israelis.

The new post is expected to be unpaid but it will come with staff and logistical support from the Quartet, as did a previous, similar position held by James Wolfensohn, the former World Bank chief.

Mr Blair was reported to have received strong support for his appointment from President Bush and Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, despite the reluctance of the Russians.

But some diplomats and political figures have been less than generous in their assessment of the Prime Minister's ability to garner broad Palestinian and Arab public support because of his leading role in the Iraq war and his close relationship with Mr Bush.

Fawzi Barhmoum, a Hamas spokesman, said Mr Blair was not welcome in the post because he supported "the Zionist occupation's terrorism and massacres against our people".

There was criticism at home, too. Michael Moore, the Lib Dems' foreign affairs spokesman, described Mr Blair as "the wrong person for the right job" and said: "There is no doubt that the Middle East peace process needs a fresh start. But an international envoy needs credibility with all the key players. After Iraq, who believes in Tony Blair?"

John Burton, Mr Blair's election agent, said last night he expected Mr Blair to give up his County Durham seat in if he is the new envoy to the Middle East.

PROPOSAL DIVIDES OPINION IN TROUBLED REGION

TONY Blair's appointment divided opinion in the Middle East, writes Ben Lynfield.

Abdullah Abdullah, a Fatah MP who is a loyalist of the president, Mahmoud Abbas, said: "Blair will be welcome. We need someone to put energy into the Quartet and to stop the shelving of plans for a two state solution and of the road map. His contributing to a solution of the Northern Ireland conflict shows he is capable of taking courageous steps. More than once he tried to push the American president to move forward to implement the road map. He was not successful, but I am sure he will put his energy into being Quartet emissary. Time will tell if he will be successful in this job."

Atef Adwan, a Hamas MP from Gaza, said Mr Blair should not be dispatched to the Middle East. "Tony Blair proved as prime minister to be biased against us, the Palestinians, and he always supported the Israeli point of view while Israel violated the human rights of Arabs and Palestinians. He will achieve negative results and will not have good co-operation. No-one will trust him."

Hani Masri, a Palestinian analyst asked: "If Blair did not succeed in doing anything while he was prime minister, how can he be expected to succeed as a special envoy?"

A spokeswoman for the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, declined to comment but said: "The prime minister is a close friend of [Mr] Blair and regards him very highly." Dave Kimche, former chief of Israel's foreign ministry, said: "We in Israel will be delighted if it happens".