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Financial crisis to take Britain's national debt to £2,300,000,000,000

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Published Date: 07 November 2009
THE financial crisis is likely to add up to £1.5 trillion to the national debt, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said. The surge comes from the huge liabilities of bailed-out banks – such as Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group – being taken on to the public balance sheet.
The government has also offered a total of £330 billion in guarantees to the financial sector as of the end of September, the ONS said.

The £1.5 trillion figure is roughly equivalent to the economic output of the entire country for one year.

Ad
ded to the latest Treasury figures – which forecast UK debt of £792bn for the current financial year, the sum would take the UK's national debt to a whopping £2.3tn.

It is also at the upper end of the range put forward by the ONS when it made its initial estimate of the impact of the crisis on the public accounts in February.

The liabilities of the bailed-out banks have been added for classification purposes, but taxpayers are not on the hook for the whole amount, because that would require every loan held by all the bailed-out or fully nationalised banks, such as Northern Rock, to have turned sour.

Instead, sales of these loans back to the private sector are likely eventually to reduce the public sector's exposure.

But the measures taken so far have added an extra £4.7bn to net borrowing in 2008, and a further £3.3bn in the first three quarters of 2009 – mainly from the extra money that the government needed to finance its intervention.

In April, Chancellor Alistair Darling said he expected losses of up to £50bn to the taxpayer on moves to prop up the banks – although he now expects to revise this figure lower in the forthcoming Pre-Budget Statement.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in the United States rose to 10.2 per cent in October, which was its highest rate since April 1983, according to figures from the US labour department.

It rose from September's figure of 9.8 per cent, which means 190,000 people lost their jobs in the month.

Since the recession began in December 2007, the number unemployed in the US has risen by 8.2 million.

President Barack Obama described the rise in unemployment as sobering.

"I will not rest until all Americans who want work can find work," he added.

He also said he would be signing legislation to extend unemployment benefit, cut taxes for businesses and extend tax credits for home buyers.





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1

WeeGirlie,

07/11/2009 00:38:03
So, our share post-separation is £230bn - paltry, nae problem. We've got oil.

2

Handsome Scotsman,

07/11/2009 01:25:35
The Union clearly isn't working for Scotland.

Leave now before we're declared bankrupt.
3

MacFloyd,

Union Kon 07/11/2009 01:27:34
A big number, £2,300,000,000,000

Even the 2.5bn that the B of E just printed ("quantitative easing") isn't going to help.

Ah well, at least they got the M25, the channel tunnel, the jubilee railway, the subway extension, the millennium dome, Canary Wharf and the Olympic Village built on wave one of the oil money.

In Scotland we're still awaiting a completed motorway, and not a penny has been spent on our one and only subway since the 70's. Nevertheless, Scotland's resources will be pumped into that debt, and in addition we'll get the "dividend" of being called "beggars".

Best of both worlds!
4

Cynicus Unbound,

07/11/2009 01:41:29
"So, our share post-separation is £230bn"- #1, Rufus TWeeGirlie

That's 10%.

With the UK population set to soar to 72 Million while ours struggles to remain above 5 milliom a more equitable share would be around 7% -or 15 billionquid.

A mere bagatelle -especially given the coming hyper-inflation that Macavity will have quantitatively eased us into. I expect to be able to sign a cheque for that amount myself, after cashing in my old Weimar republic marks.

Will you out yourself as a Tory before the UK election?
5

MacFloyd,

Union Kon 07/11/2009 01:58:31
I'm confused at how this article finishes with talk of what Obama is up to, given that The UK of GB & NI isn't in the same boat as the US (or even the same continent).

6

Handsome Scotsman,

07/11/2009 02:34:32

Gordon Brown should go to jail for Fiscal Irresponsibility!
7

Observer,,

Glasgow 07/11/2009 06:34:34
2 We already are it's just that the politicians aren't admitting it.
8

Observer,,

Glasgow 07/11/2009 06:38:59
4 On a purely selfish basis it makes sense for Scotland to declare independence tomorrow, as we are actually better placed to survive this without England dragging us down (although it will still be sore whatever happens).

I am not however a great believer in being selfish, I prefer a more moral argument, but on a practical level I don't think it hurts to mention the selfish advantages to independence in passing, as it were.
9

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 07/11/2009 06:49:28
#1 Wee Girlie

"So, our share post-separation is £230bn - paltry, nae problem. We've got oil."

I think you don't really understand.

1.5 Trillion of the 2.3 Trillion is the Bank Bailout.

Westminster has effectively bought the failed banks, they can keep them. We will just start new ones, far cheaper.

Since devolution the Scottish Government has only spent what it has received. The GERS numbers over that period show a very small deficit.

That deficit plus a per capita share of the National Debt Prior to devolution is all Scotland will likely accept.
10

Jobless recovery,

07/11/2009 08:02:07
And people say it's stupid to buy gold and a year's supply of food storage.

Enjoy Gordon Brown's economic recovery!
11

Jobless recovery,

07/11/2009 08:04:17
#2 You are bankrupt. Why did Scotland join the Union in the first place? It's because England wrote off your ancestors' debts.

Besides, don't forget that Blair, Brown, Darling et al all belong to Scotland. Prudence, indeed!
12

Jobless recovery,

07/11/2009 08:27:22
#1 Who's going to pay your welfare benefits if you break away from England?

Look at Glasgow NE for an accurate picture of what Scotland will look like if the Scottish National Socialist Party wins its argument for separation.
13

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 07/11/2009 08:49:59
A video of Wee Girlie helping out in Labours Postal Ballot Campaign.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HWui4OZawc
14

Gdgy,

07/11/2009 09:04:28
Amazingly how two-faced and twsited most SNPite's minds are...aparently Scotland ahs no debt and would walk away from the Union scot-free!!! Ah the imagination of children!!!!
15

mr broon,

Edinburgh 07/11/2009 09:04:46
Tories Cameron and Osborne must be in despair?

The more debt Brown and Darling run up, the less prospect of tax cuts for the rich!
16

Newsflash,

http://tinyurl.com/myy4wy 07/11/2009 09:16:00
#12



Look at Glasgow NE for an accurate picture of what Scotland will look like if the New Labour Unionist party are returned to continue their failed agenda of 74 years of hegemony. If they are voted back in to power then it will be more of the same.

Lord Michael Martin, Baron Martin of Springburn, of Port Dundas in the City of Glasgow is the epitome of unionist Scots on the take as they have been down the centuries, the fifth columnist Vichy who betray Scotland at every turn, whilst lining their own pockets with siller, fat and self satisfied, bloated on the gravy they sup every day whilst there constituents have the lowest survival rate in the EU.

Scotland is a nation with ample natural resources to maintain our nation in good health and prosperity. The sneers of racist poisonous BNP reptiles like you only drive harder the juggernaut of independence as it sweeps the unionists cabal before it.

17

Group Captain Lionel Mandrake,

07/11/2009 09:23:53
9

"Westminster has effectively bought the failed banks, they can keep them."

Hmm. That would be the Royal Bank of SCOTLAND and Halifax-Bank of SCOTLAND. See the problem?

"We will just start new ones, far cheaper."

Who's this "we"? With what?

"Since devolution the Scottish Government has only spent what it has received."

The devolved budget is only 60% of total public spending in Scotland.

"The GERS numbers over that period show a very small deficit."

At last, a Nat who accepts that the GERS bottom line IS a deficit. You can count better than "Hapless" Swinney can - have his job!

£2-plus bn out of 50-odd? Not exactly "very small". The point is that if there's an annual deficit, nobody is going to be paying off the inherited debt.

Still less creating an "oil fund".

"That deficit plus a per capita share of the National Debt Prior to devolution is all Scotland will likely accept."

"Accept"? Says who? I think you'd find that the people the money is owed to would have a bit of a say on that.
18

TWC,

exLabour 07/11/2009 09:33:09
Debt - Labour - Debt - Labour

They seem to go together don't they.

Meanwhile MR wood says we can pay off all the UK debt using the Oil Monet cat Mainwaring so someone is lying and based on past performance that will be Labour.
19

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 07/11/2009 09:47:08
#17 Colonel Bat Guano

"The point is that if there's an annual deficit, nobody is going to be paying off the inherited debt."

Government Debt has a habit of just getting recycled.

When was the last time the UK Government paid down its
accumulated debt?

""Westminster has effectively bought the failed banks, they can keep them." Hmm. That would be the Royal Bank of SCOTLAND and Halifax-Bank of SCOTLAND. See the problem?"

What Problem, lots of Foreign Owned banks in Scotland already.
20

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 07/11/2009 09:49:44
#17 Colonel Bat Guano

"£2-plus bn out of 50-odd? Not exactly "very small". The point is that if there's an annual deficit, nobody is going to be paying off the inherited debt."

This year it will be a surplus while the UK runs a deficit of 200 Billion.
21

KampungHighlander,

07/11/2009 09:53:56
#17 Colonel Bat Guano

"£2-plus bn out of 50-odd? Not exactly "very small". The point is that if there's an annual deficit, nobody is going to be paying off the inherited debt."

That was last year. 2 Billion out of 50 Billion is 4%.

That mean that thought we make up 8.6% of the population we account for less than half our per capita share of the debt.

In other words we are twice as better off out of the Union than in it.

Thanks for helping me make that case.

22

Linda,

Edinburgh 07/11/2009 10:00:34
Actually Scotland's Oil and Gas would more than pay our share of the UK debt (mainly caused by Gordon Brown's lack of regulations).
There are 25 billion barrels of oil and gas remaining in the North Sea. According to experts including Sir Ian Wood in Herald on 6 November 2009 the oil and gas remaining in the North sea is worth over £1500 billions.
Much more oil and gas remains in deeper waters of the west coast of Shetland and in the Minches. And I am sure you know that 90% of UKs oil and gas is in Scottish waters.
23

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 07/11/2009 10:02:53
#17 Colonel Bat Guano

"Accept"? Says who? I think you'd find that the people the money is owed to would have a bit of a say on that."

Since the debt is all issued by the Bank Of England that is who the creditors will obviously seek repayment from.
24

Rumpus Floatfly,

07/11/2009 10:10:01
If Darling turns round the economy it won't be a shoe-in for Cameron.
25

Handsome Scotsman,

07/11/2009 10:28:28
Darling is no longer in control of this vessel.
All levers have been pulled but the big weight of debt means we are sinking.
We set sail in 1997, destination Iceberg, which we hit square on.
26

lulach mac gille coemgain,

07/11/2009 11:03:48
This would be the ideal time for Scotland to gain independence - Not because it is easy but because times are difficult and from this difficulty, Scotland as a nation would grow above her financial standing as a downgraded part of a Un-united Kingdom’s economy to a top player in the worlds richest countries along with Luxembourg, Switzerland, Norway etc.

And that is why London fear Scottish Independence!
27

TWC,

exLabour 07/11/2009 11:37:41
1.

You are right honey we've got so much oil that Business men are suggesting it will pay off the UK debt, think what it could do for Scotland' debt, health and Jobs.

Scotland has 90% of the Oil.

I'm not asking for Independence mind only Fiscal control of our revenue and assets.


I'm sure the Unions must be discussing this, they have to see that this type of investment is the only way to resurrect our Manufacturing base.
28

Buckpool Loon,

Cheshire 07/11/2009 12:17:15
If anybody is daft enough to believe the figures posted by the Treasury it explains why they support the Union.
29

Jo Public,

07/11/2009 13:30:33
Scotland - For the sake of our children and our future, please get a divorce from this Union on the grounds of London's unreasonable behaviour. This debt just keeps spiralling up. It's now about £40K for every person. We cannot allow ourselves to be dragged down anymore. We need to control our own destiny and ditch the profligate mob in London. Please vote for your country in thew next general election. Vote for the party with Scotland's interests at heart. Vote SNP.
30

Group Captain Lionel Mandrake,

07/11/2009 15:02:49
19/20/21

"When was the last time the UK Government paid down its
accumulated debt?"

2001. Didn't you know that?

"This year it will be a surplus while the UK runs a deficit of 200 Billion."

You mean 2009/10? Er, the GERS numbers will attribute 8.5% of the bank bailout to Scotland.

And we already know that 2009/10 oil revenue is collapsing back down to under £7bn, from £13bn in
2008/9.

https://www.og.decc.gov.uk/information/bb_updates/appendices/UKCS_Tax_Table.pdf

How's that going to be a surplus?

"That mean that thought we make up 8.6% of the population we account for less than half our per capita share of the debt."

I'm sorry, are you completely innumerate and illiterate?


What is it about Nattism that renders people unable to think or count?
31

Group Captain Lionel Mandrake,

07/11/2009 15:08:53
27

"You are right honey we've got so much oil that Business men are suggesting it will pay off the UK debt, think what it could do for Scotland' debt, health and Jobs."

And we already know that 2009/10 oil revenue is collapsing back down to under £7bn, from £13bn in 2008/9.

https://www.og.decc.gov.uk/information/bb_updates/appendices/UKCS_Tax_Table.pdf

We also know North Sea production has been declining since 2000 and is expected to continue dropping at 5% a year.

"Independence" = financially delusional
32

Group Captain Lionel Mandrake,

07/11/2009 15:12:12
23

"Since the debt is all issued by the Bank Of England that is who the creditors will obviously seek repayment from."

I think you would find that the UK would be perfectly capable of making sure that an "independent" Scotland would be totally unable to avoid taking on its share of the inherited debt.

When it comes to disputes, big countries usually win.

And there isn't an international forum, court or organisation which would take a different view.
33

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 07/11/2009 15:32:17
#30 Colonel Bat Guano

"You mean 2009/10?" No. You should now the GERS estimates are always a year behind. I was talking about the GERS estimates that will come out in June which as you have already pointed out should show 13 Billion in Oil Revenue.

"I'm sorry, are you completely innumerate and illiterate?"

No but you seem to be.

50 Billion x 8.6% = 4,300,000,000

Which you seem to believe is a smaller sum than 2,000,000,000

34

TWC,

exLabour 07/11/2009 15:34:08
31 Group Captain Lionel Mandrake

You are an excuse for a Scotsman like the Nu Labour poodles you delight in anything negative about Scotland.

No wonder the Nats are tanning your Erchie.

Can you quote any Policies for Scotland?
35

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 07/11/2009 15:39:20
"When it comes to disputes, big countries usually win. And there isn't an international forum, court or organisation which would take a different view."

All countries are equal in The Court Of International Settlements. The case will be decided on its merits.

"GERS numbers will attribute 8.5% of the bank bailout to Scotland."

No it won't because like PFI it is an off balance sheet transaction.



36

Group Captain Lionel Mandrake,

07/11/2009 15:52:17
33/35

Quel horreur! I misquoted some data.

The deficit in 2007/8 wasn't £2.x bn, it was £3.8bn.

Kinda blows you out of the water, Kampung.

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/06/18101733/1

"In 2007-08, the estimated fiscal balance in Scotland, that is the estimated current budget balance plus estimated net capital investment, was a ...deficit of £3.8 billion (2.7 per cent of GDP) when an estimated geographical share of North Sea revenue is included."

By the way, don't go pinning your hopes on the next version of GERS either.

The precursor data is already out, I've done the sums, and even with the £13bn of oil revenue in 2008/9, the bottom line will still be a Scottish deficit of around £3bn.

There was this global recession thing, see? Govt spending went up, tax revenue went down.

Nothing like facts to baffle the Nats.
37

Group Captain Lionel Mandrake,

07/11/2009 15:56:15
34

"You are an excuse for a Scotsman like the Nu Labour poodles you delight in anything negative about Scotland."

No, I delight in facts and the truth. If they happen to expose "independence" and "fiscal autonomy" as stupid ideas, so be it.

"No wonder the Nats are tanning your Erchie."

Really? Hadn't noticed. Can't recall anyone ever disproving me on a point of fact.

"Can you quote any Policies for Scotland?"

Yes.

Stay a proud, fully participating part of the UK.

Don't waste time, space, effort and money on pointless referenda.

Don't discourage enterprise and investment by creating unnecessary risks and uncertainties.

Stop quasi-racist financial discrimination against non-Scottish British students.

The list could go on...
38

KampungHighlander,

07/11/2009 16:00:42
Colonel Bat Guano

Looked at your PDF.

https://www.og.decc.gov.uk/information/bb_updates/appendices/UKCS_Tax_Table.pdf

To Quote

"The above table summarises the tax revenues from oil and gas production in the UK and its continental shelf since 1964/65. The figures for 2006/07, 2007/08 and 2008/09 are provisional estimates; the forecasts for 2009/10 are consistent with the April 2009 Budget - they assume an average oil price of $46.7 per barrel in 2009."

What Price is a Barrel of Oil? $77.43

What has been the Average Price YTD? $60.84

What is the current Estimate for the entire year? $64.12

You really need to use more up to date sources to bolster your arguments than Treasury Estimates that are almost a year old.

The 7 Billion Pound figure is out of date, 10 Billion is a closer estimate.
39

KampungHighlander,

07/11/2009 16:06:15
#36 Colonel Bat Guano

"The precursor data is already out, I've done the sums, and even with the £13bn of oil revenue in 2008/9, the bottom line will still be a Scottish deficit of around £3bn."

What will be the UK deficit during the same period?
40

Group Captain Lionel Mandrake,

07/11/2009 16:11:37
38

"What Price is a Barrel of Oil? $77.43

What has been the Average Price YTD? $60.84

What is the current Estimate for the entire year? $64.12"

Utterly pathetic, Kampung.

The North Sea tax system isn't just a % of the crude oil price. Companies pay tax on their PROFITS, not REVENUES.

The system also works a long way in arrears - as should be obvious from "2006/07, 2007/08 and 2008/09 are provisional estimates", which you so kindly quoted - so one of the reasons the Treasury have a good idea of tax revenue for 2009/10 is because it is partly dependent on prices and profits in previous years.

Always happy to help.

It still means a Scottish deficit of around £3bn for 2008/9. And with oil revenue halving in 2009/10, what will the deficit be then?

"Independence" = financial suicide.



41

Group Captain Lionel Mandrake,

07/11/2009 16:14:01
39

"What will be the UK deficit during the same period?"

A big number, which will be added on to the even bigger number of the cumulative debt.

Of which an "independent" Scotland would get a per capita share.

Which would be, ipso facto, just as much of a problem for an "independent" Scotland as it is going to be for the UK.

Sorry, can I make this any simpler?
42

KampungHighlander,

07/11/2009 16:20:34
#41 Colonel Bat Guano

"A big number, which will be added on to the even bigger number of the cumulative debt."

Are you scared to say it?

"The precursor data is already out, I've done the sums"

So Please, Please tell us innumerate and illiterate nationalists what the UK deficit is during the same period you reckon that Scotland will run a 3 Billion Pound Deficit?

"The North Sea tax system isn't just a % of the crude oil price. Companies pay tax on their PROFITS, not REVENUES."

I hear UK Oil Companies now account for 25% of all UK corporate taxes.

43

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 07/11/2009 16:33:22
Here you go Colonel, found it for you.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=277

"In the financial year 2008/09 the UK recorded a general government deficit of £101.3 billion, which was equivalent to 7.1 per cent of gross domestic product."

Since I am an innumerate Nationalist could you tell which is a larger sum.

3 Billion Pound Deficit if Scotland had Fiscal Autonomy.

Or our Per Capita Share of 101.3 Billion Pounds as part of the UK.

By my limited numeracy that works out 8.7 Billion Pounds as our share of the UKs deficit.

Is 8.7 Billion a Bigger Number than 3 Billion?
44

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 07/11/2009 16:36:26
#37 Colonel Bat Guano

"Really? Hadn't noticed. Can't recall anyone ever disproving me on a point of fact"

Thats cause you usually do a runner when someone points out obvious flaws in your arguments.
45

The Tin Man,

07/11/2009 17:06:07
#43 KampungHighlander, Jakarta 07/11/2009 16:33:22

As you said, you are an innumerate Nationalist.

It is £3mm spending deficit per year, + about 9% of the £1.5 trillion national overdraft = an ever increasing overdraft.

Just here to help...
46

KampungHighlander,

07/11/2009 17:15:02
#45 Tin Whistle

"£1.5 trillion national overdraft = an ever increasing overdraft."

Those are some awfully expensive banks the UK government has bought themselves. Good luck with them.
47

KampungHighlander,

07/11/2009 17:17:39
#45 Tin Whistle

"£1.5 trillion national overdraft = an ever increasing overdraft."

From what I understand it is the Banks that owe that money.
48

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 07/11/2009 17:24:39
Tin Whistle

You know what is really striking about the difference between the Scottish Deficit and UK Deficit?

The UK, even if it wanted to, could not join the Euro because its deficit is too high as a percentage of GDP while an Independent Scotland would be welcomed.

Pretty Funny Huh?
49

Donkey Hote,

07/11/2009 18:35:00


To all who want to make an issue of the UK debt; cut your consumption. The UK debt is as it is because of the high standard of living in the UK.
Buy nothing foreign. If the UK doesn't make it, don't buy it!

If the UK government ran the economy as though it was wartime, you lot would be bringing the place down with you wails of, "WE WANT." Globalised markets mean we pay the global price for our imports, usually in dollars; that has to change too, but, that is another problem.

Major wars will be fought before the US relinquishes the Dollar's right to be the world's principal reserve, or, anchor currency.
50

Rumpus Floatfly,

07/11/2009 18:41:47
It's a drop in the ocean.
51

Rumpus Floatfly,

07/11/2009 18:42:36
Donkey

No no no no no! We were told to spend our way out of this. Personal debt = good.
52

Observer,,

Glasgow 07/11/2009 18:46:16
49 Yeah you have a point. The Labour Government's pyramid scheme gave lots of people 100 grand Lego houses and giant plasma tellys which was apparently what they wanted.

But I reckon you know as well as me that the trade cycle will be with us forever. There is not and there never will be an end to boom and bust. Smart folks know that and don't get caught out.
53

Observer,,

Glasgow 07/11/2009 18:49:47
Be nice to Smee, as a Scottish Tory he is an endangered species, there are hardly any of them left, they are very shy and easily frightened. So don't treat him as you would a normal person.

Save the Tories, they are not just museum pieces.
54

Donkey Hote,

07/11/2009 18:53:32
Observer,, # 52

Smart, or, rich folks don't get themselves into personal debt. The country is in the position it is because of personal consumption, however. Many, many commodities bought in the UK did not originate there, that means we have exported our cash to that producer. That is a massive leakage to the UK economy. The UK produces very little now, comparatively, to a few generations ago. The UK does not have the population to support very large industries, or, the raw materials.

Boom and bust is a global phenomenon, smart people know that.
55

Observer,,

Glasgow 07/11/2009 18:58:20
54 Boom and bust is inevitable inside capitalism. However smart Governments don't do away with their manufacturing base in order to make a point as the wicked witch did. And Labour's abiding sin was to carry on with her policies.

People who saddle themselves up to the eyeballs in debt are little better than wage slaves, and to a certain extent I have no sympthy. Most of the shiny baubles they bought with their credit fuelled imaginary wealth were valueless. You should only buy what you need.

56

Rumpus Floatfly,

07/11/2009 18:58:43
54

Is having a mortgage counted as debt?
57

Observer,,

Glasgow 07/11/2009 19:02:46
56 I would say that depends on whether you have bought the house to live in, or to make a profit on.

If you have bought your house to live in then a mortgage is a living expense like paying the rent. You pay money for a roof over your head.
58

Rumpus Floatfly,

07/11/2009 19:08:21
57

In which case, would you say that the UK has taken out a really big mortgage? They haven't done it for a profit.
59

KampungHighlander,

Donkey Hote 07/11/2009 19:18:02
"If the UK doesn't make it, don't buy it!"

That would leave most people just waking around (no cars), naked (no clothes), barefoot (no shoes) and starving (no ready meals).

"The UK does not have the population to support very large industries, or, the raw materials."

The South Koreans have a smaller population than the UK and even less in the way of Natural Resources yet they manage to make Cars, Ships, Plasma TVs and every form of electronic gizmo you can think off.



60

Observer,,

Glasgow 07/11/2009 19:21:57
58 NO! If you take out a mortgage you have an asset at the end of it. Make no mistake the majority of public debt which this Govt has saddled us with is to bail out the banks. There is a theory that eventually the public purse will be repaid when the faux shares the Govt bought will return their investment. I think that is as likely as me being crowned the Queen of Sheba. Much of the money given to the banks has now gone abroad never to be seen again. We will get nothing, or very little, back from our money other than to perpetuate the same banking system that got us into this godamned mess in the first place.
61

KampungHighlander,

07/11/2009 19:25:17
#57 Observer

A good point.

Most saw a rise in the value of their home as a windfall and many went for equity release loans and went shopping.

The problem with this is that while your house went up all the other houses did too.

So if you sold your house whatever gain you made would be offset by the higher prices you would pay to find another house to live in.
62

Observer,,

Glasgow 07/11/2009 19:28:17
61 Yeah it was all imaginary wealth. Well, that's what speculative bubbles are all about.
63

Group Captain Lionel Mandrake,

07/11/2009 19:30:29
43

No, Kampung, that's not the point. It is not one I have ever tried to make.

GERS may well show that at "independent" Scotland with a geographic oil share would have a slightly lower ongoing deficit than the UK.

But that would soon get swallowed up by the costs of running "independent" government departments, tax systems, embassies, TV stations, so-called "defence" forces and so on.

The point is that at 20 you claimed that:

"This year it will be a surplus "

No, it won't. There is no magic, hidden "oil surplus". It does not exist. The Nat-approved GERS figures prove this.

So, if we won't have any significantly larger revenues under "independence" and we will have larger expenditures due to the need to create all the "independent" things we will need to have, what is the point?

Zero.
64

Observer,,

Glasgow 07/11/2009 19:32:34
OK posters (in a David Attenburgh voice) we are priviliged to have a real life Scottish Tory on the thread. Don't scare him now. You don't see many of them so take notes while you can......
65

Rumpus Floatfly,

07/11/2009 19:39:24
Observer

So this means the government wants to keep the interest rates really low so they can get rid of the debt quicker.
But if they have low interest rates, no-one will want to invest here. The pound stays low and that's good for exports, but it's rubbish for imports. Pound needs to be stronger for better balance, but that means the govt will have to pay more to furnish the debt. The govt of course = us.
66

Rumpus Floatfly,

07/11/2009 19:40:33
My heid is now nippin' with all this and I'm off fur tae get wrecked. I'm sure that will solve everything.
67

Observer,,

Glasgow 07/11/2009 19:43:43
66 Me too.
68

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 07/11/2009 20:03:49
#63 Colonel

"But that would soon get swallowed up by the costs of running "independent" government departments," which we already pay a percentage of under GERS.

"tax systems," which are designed around the needs of London and the home counties and bear little resemblance to the kinds of tax structures needed to increase our growth to the level of other small independent countries in Europe.

"embassies" which can be as small as a single Ambassador and a few local support staff. Quite common these days for countries to contract with other Governments to share facilities like the UK does with Australia in Bali.

"TV stations" which we already pay in Scotland through licensing fees but get a much smaller amount in actual production produced in Scotland. We will also have commercial stations.

"so-called "defence" forces" like Trident Submarines and Aircraft Carriers that we have no need for.

"So, if we won't have any significantly larger revenues under "independence" "

We will because we will be able to use fiscal policy to increase our growth rates, get more people working and paying taxes.

"and we will have larger expenditures due to the need to create all the "independent" things we will need to have" I doubt that to be true. While we will have some things cost more we will also save money by no longer trying to play on the Big Stage with the Big Boys. The Empire is gone, it is time to recognize that fact.

"What is the point?"

We will for the first time in 300 years be in control of our own destiny. You can't put a price on that.
69

Donkey Hote,

07/11/2009 21:33:38
Observer,, # 55

I'm not sure that you understand business. I can tell that you do not have an MBA. If a business sector is failing whose responsibility is it to keep it going and to what extent in terms of cash. Look up "Comparative Advantage."

Rumpus Floatfly, # 56

Depends whether you are borrowing or lending.

70

Donkey Hote,

07/11/2009 21:35:39
KampungHighlander # 59

What is the hourly wage in South Korea?
71

drunken proffet,

Tassy 08/11/2009 08:21:02
Well it is getting to the stage of picking another name for the currency. You could call it the peseta, but I believe that is copyright. Maybe the poinsetta, but that belongs to the horticultural society. I would call it the Ballantyne, in that the UK pension is getting pretty terrible, even after paying for it over 43 years, but a couple of crates of Ballantynes whisky, or maybe Famous Grouse would go along way to alleviate our suffering.
72

Richard Lionheart,

17/11/2009 21:59:20
Well Brown is right he has ended boom and bust. We now only have bust.

 

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