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US recession is finally over – as British economy left floundering

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Published Date: 30 October 2009
PRESSURE mounted on Gordon Brown after the United States came out of recession yesterday, leaving the UK as the only major world economy experiencing negative growth.
As Britain remained locked in the longest recession since records began, the US economy grew for the first time in a year, bringing an end to the worst downturn America has endured since the Great Depression.

US gross domestic product (GDP) grew
by 3.5 per cent in the third quarter from July to September, a turnaround from the previous three months when the economy shrank by 0.7 per cent.

The news resulted in stocks rising in Europe and on Wall Street, and led to analysts predicting the world economy was entering an encouraging yet fragile recovery.

The improvement was welcomed by President Barack Obama, who said it was "an affirmation that this recession is abating and the steps we've taken have made a difference".

On this side of the Atlantic, however, the figures led to opposition politicians claiming that Britain was being left behind by the US. Shadow chancellor George Osborne said: "These figures are very good news for the world economy, but Britain now stands out as the only major economy still in recession.

"Gordon Brown's claim that we were 'best placed' now lies in tatters. His recession plan has failed. The rest of the world is moving on and we are left behind."

Mr Osborne added: "On the same day as yet more disappointing business-lending data, it is increasingly clear that we need credit and confidence to get the British economy moving again. We won't get either without new economic leadership."

Earlier this month, it had been forecast that the British economy, the sixth largest in the world, would come out of recession – which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

But the most recent figures dashed those hopes when it was announced that GDP had fallen by 0.4 per cent, meaning that the economy had contracted for a sixth successive quarter, making Britain's recession the longest since records began 50 years ago.

The French and German economies had already emerged from recession by the time the British figures had been published.

The return to growth in the US was seized on by Obama supporters as proof that the president's stimulus package has been central to turning the economy around.

Josh Bivens, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, noted that in the six months prior to the passing of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act – as the package is formally known – the economy was shrinking at a rate of 5.9 per cent but in the half-year since its introduction, there had been growth of 1.4 per cent.

Mr Bivens said: "It's far too early to declare 'mission accomplished', but it is crystal clear that the Recovery Act was crucial in pulling the economy out of its tailspin."

The recovery saw gains in consumer spending, exports and home construction.

Experts said it was also driven by government programmes such as discounts on new cars and an $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers.

Markets worldwide responded positively to the US data. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.1 per cent to 5,137.72, France's CAC 40 jumped 1.4 per cent to 3,714.02 and Germany's DAX closed up 1.7 per cent on 5,587.45.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average index surged 2.05 per cent to 9,962 and the Standard & Poor's 500 index added 2.25 per cent to 1,066.





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  • Last Updated: 29 October 2009 11:47 PM
  • Source: The Scotsman
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Economic indicators
 
1

the_figures_are _fudged,

Galashiels 30/10/2009 00:46:14
Good job we are better placed to weather the tough times ahead.

Remind me again did we get to choose Gordon Brown as sub prime minister ?
2

Fletty,

30/10/2009 01:12:41
Labour will be leaving office in disgrace, just like they did in 1979.

A nation deep in debt,unable to pay it's public sector workers, unable to invest and, hopefully, unable to win a general election again for at least 18 years.

3

Robbie 2,

30/10/2009 01:35:13
How are the small economies faring, like:
“The Norwegian economy emerged from recession in the second quarter..”
“Oil keeps Norway out of deep recession..”
“The Norwegian economy has been affected by the global recession, but the downturn seems to be less severe than in most other countries…”
http://blog.norway.com/tag/recession/
And remember:, “UK fails to make top 10 prosperous nations” These are:
1 Finland; 2 Switzerland;3 Sweden; 4.Denmark;
5.Norway; 6.Australia; 7. Canada;8. Netherlands
9. United States;10 New Zealand; 11. Ireland

Then 12 UK and 13. Belgium.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6438706/UK--fails-to-make-top-10-prosperous-nations.html
As Leopold Kohr, economist and political scientist stated people who lived in small states,”… are happier, more peaceful, more creative and more prosperous“
The renown and influential economic thinker E.F. Schumacher also believed, small nations are more prosperous. Just compare the quality of life in the giant nations with the small western democracies. .Small and independent always appears the best choice.
4

Just an opinion,

USA 30/10/2009 02:08:58
Well depending on who you listen to, that is one opinion.
But it is not translating into more people going back to work.
Let's face it, you don't know who to listen to these days.
But unemployment figures tell the truth,and they are at another high, the likes of which has not been seen in years and years.
On the one hand, the Republicans appeared tonight on TV showing America facing more hard times.
Over on CNN however, the 3.5 was hailed as the bee's knees in any language.
Either way, more houses are being foreclosed around me, and things look pretty grim for the unemployed.
5

Charles Linskaill,

Edinburgh 30/10/2009 02:12:08


We are not "left floundering", we are only the small wheels of the carriages, that the Big Train Engine Pulls, When the USA stopped we 'of-course' stopped down the line, just as we will GO', as the USA starts going, 'Patience is a Virtue'!, 'Chuff, Chuff'.



6

Dougie Dougla,

30/10/2009 03:21:57
Union dividend - ZERO
7

Yok Finney,

Ross-shire 30/10/2009 05:04:04
Rats leave a sinking ship; mice live on sunk one that's washed ashore. This is Cameron's promo.

-- UK is the only major world economy experiencing negative growth.

ie it's stunting, shrinking. Or to be PC, it's a major micr0 Brown Dwarf economy in the stellar affairs of the City of London.

As CEO, I personally brought £10,000 of inward investment to the UK withoot tootin' ma flutie and blawing the strumpet. I blame that on trust to our usual business ETHICS, and that as a chartered engineer, I can write Design Briefs as well as wear them.

Our head of design now lives in New Zealand ex Capetown. I mooted moving our Office there.

"You must be jesting, Jock", he emailed back. "Have you looked at currency exchange rates on the $NZ?. LMD are suggesting Brazil where we design for a VERY GOOD shipyard."

Dmned right we have the blues!
8

CManson,

Seattle, WA 30/10/2009 05:13:51
#4 Just an opinion; I totally agree with you that the figures on unemployment are high and that the media are to blame for much of the confusion. I returned thia afternoon from a trip across the border after spending a few days with my friends in Vancouver and leaving Canada is like departing the fresh air to return to the smog. Their economy is booming but like ours unemoloyment stil remains higher than they want it to be, but they are compensated with better Insurance benefits and a world class Health Care system and one can actually believe their National Newscasts.
9

Oldhabits,

Bristol 30/10/2009 06:34:59
According to Gordon Brown, France and Germany came out of recession sooner as they went in deeper than the UK.

If you invest £1,000 and the market goes down, you are only in growth once the value of your investment goes above £1,000 not just when it goes from £800 to £850.

Am I not understanding something, because I can't see where Gordon Brown can trumpet success? Spin again?
10

Ggordon,

30/10/2009 07:50:41

Bliar/Brown and the rest. What a joke
11

Ggordon,

30/10/2009 08:00:37

US have just bunged more money at their problem economy. Just even more in debt. Won't help in the long term. Just build problems for the future.

US Bankrupt
12

Jings MacCrivvens,

30/10/2009 08:02:34
" .......the only major world economy experiencing negative growth. "

Labour's usual handling of the economy!
13

Boab,

Glasgow 30/10/2009 08:17:29
#11 Gordon: I agree. Their economy has only recovered because they robbed taxpayers to pay bankers, same as here. House prices and unemployment are still artificially high.
14

Dissector,

Stirling 30/10/2009 08:56:05
The claims of the longest "well-spun" period of growth in the UK now becomes the longest period of recession. Don't hear too many Liabour voices wishing to claim that record.
New Liabour + Gordon the Twitch (in common with all Liabour govts) believe in "big government" running the country. When did a Liabour govt leave office with the economy in anything but shambles ?
15

Pa broon,

Edinburgh 30/10/2009 09:05:50
As someone said earlier its 1979 again and we are back to bust with the Labour party. The only thing that hasn't arrived yet is the winter of discontent and public sector strikes! Sorry correction,someones just reminded me that the post office has already started the ball rolling.
16

Mike S,

30/10/2009 09:06:45
It takes 3 set of consecutiove figures to herald a recession but only one to herald a recovery. Lies damn lies and government statistics.
17

cabrach loon,

inverness 30/10/2009 09:50:50
How can the UK economy rise when 43% or so are employed by the state and so many others are in service induistries, an economy needs to manufacture and produce products to be successfu and expansive.
What does the UK do now, fights wars it can only lose because of lack of preparation and investing in weapons and equipment. Lives on credit from failed banks. Supports masses of illegals who are not even allowed to work if they want to, encourage benefit dependent unemployed and many labelled disabled but who could be usefully employed in a variety of tasks, creates masses of useless big brother snooping quangoes to satisfy the control creeps who are destroying the UK,of course GB has no solution for the mess he has made by engineering a disastrous form of unstable society. The election just cannot come soon enough. The EU in Europe is much better than the EU in Britain believe me!
18

Liz,

Edinburgh 30/10/2009 10:28:19
#15
And yet again another Government is going to have to come in and sort out all the mess - and get the blame for it. The UK economy had only just got itself back up and running back in 1997 and Nulabour (and our 'prudent' Chancellor) have ruined it, yet again.
- do not belive the 'it started in America' rubbish Brown was claiming credit for years for the so called boom, so he should be man enough to accept at least some of the blame for the bust. After all it was his spending policies and the encouragement of debt fuelled growth that have landed us in this mess.
19

tommy M,

Scotland 30/10/2009 10:35:43
Labour the party that leaves your grandchildren in dbt. Way to go Gordy. Shame on you and your deceitful snouts party.

People of Galsgow NE - Please hammer these fools when you have your say.

Independence. It's not just time, it's imperative.
20

Alan B,

30/10/2009 11:12:02
While the pain that labour have cause for the country is really serious and we are all going to suffer as a result, you wonder whether it will ever bring labour voters to their senses.

Day in day out we see labour apologists telling us all how well the uk was placed, how browns economic handing was so good as they parrotted the labourised bbc.

Surely now that they can see australia etc avoiding the recession. Germany and France come out of recession in the summer. And now the US they can finally see how bad Brown economic management has been.

I just wonder how much evidence it takes before they finally admit labour got it so wrong.

The same goes for the scotsman. This must be complete embarrassing for it. It parrots labour and browns line about him saving the world. And a few months later we can all see the uk is the biggest economic disaster.

Murphy comments about arc of insolvency illustrates the sheer stupidity of labour. Britain is the arc of insolvency.
21

Nevsky;,

St Petersburg 30/10/2009 11:32:59
Gordon saved the world but curiously forgot about the UK; the man has not one ounce of credibility left and has been proven time and time again to make the wrong decisions at the wrong times.

Even his backing for Blair has been rejected...Brown is the weakest leader in Europe and has to go!
22

Temple,

Italy 30/10/2009 12:47:38
"US recession is finally over"
at what price ?

the 3 millions people who lost his job in 1 year , they'll get back to work ?
the 1000 billion of $ of taxpayer money pumped into the bank and automotive system ,when they'll get back
and finally the dollar at 1,50 against the euro

are you sure that is a victory ?
23

Jo Public,

30/10/2009 13:45:01
Gordon Brown - too busy sending letters to X Factor contestants to concentrate on the economy.

There has not been such an inept PM in the history of politics, going back to the Stone Age.
24

peter1958,

Glasgow 30/10/2009 13:47:18
I see the nats rejoicing yet again at any piece of news that might possibly infer that the UK economy is doing less well than its near nighbours. Well, so much depends on how you wish to measure such things. In terms of unemployment Eurostat rates the average as being 9.7% across the 27 states that it compiles statistics for so in that sense, the UK at 6.7% is a whole lot better than say Ireland at 13.0% (whoa!) France at 10:00% and Spain at 13.0%.

25

peter1958,

Glasgow 30/10/2009 14:01:27
Now, if Scotland were independent of the UK would we be enjoying unemployment rates on a par with the Netherlands at 3.6% or Ireland?

I suspect Ireland.

And for the record Norway has unemployment rates of 2.6%.
26

peter1958,

Glasgow 30/10/2009 14:12:38
Then again, to deliver Noregian rates of unemployment you might have to deliver Norwegian tax rates. I personally have never been against that, but there again, I've never been a higher rate tax payer.

The best comparison table I can find is soemwhat dated but it states the comparison thus:

Government Tax Revenue as a % of GDP - 2005

OECD Average 39%
United States 29%
Britain 37.4%
Australia 31.5%

Statist/EU
Japan 28%
Germany 38.4%
France 45.4%
Netherlands 43%
Sweden 53.2%
Denmark 49%
Norway 41.9%
Canada 37.2%
EU Average 43.6%


What I can't quite get my head around is how France succeeds in having one of the highest tax rates but delivers one of the highest unemployment rates. What do they do with it?


27

The Former Mr. Angry,

Perth 30/10/2009 14:15:43
For a country still in recession, the UK scarcely needs the architect of that situation Gordon Brown, to continue to plough us under by promising 1000 million of our Earth pounds to developing nations to help them deal with global warming. Yes that is what the leader of a bankrupt nation proposes to do at Copenhagen. Net result? A couple of misleading headlines and a giant waste of time and money (again) ploughing resource we will have to borrow into nations who will squander and waste and divert the funds into living the life of Reilly for at least the top echelons.

If someone told you that Sarkozy or Merkel was planning to do this you'd think they were certifiable. Unfortunately in this case it's our own dear Socialist Leader.

Also the myth of US being out of recession is proved by the high unemployment levels and high rate of foreclosures. It's almost a dead cert that if you pump billion of dollars into the economy it will recover slightly at least like a flatlined corpse may temporarily show signs of life on resuscitation efforts. At least after the US ploughing money they don't have into the economy it has experienced an uptick in the process. Brown can't even manage that after "quantitative easing" due to the underlying state of the UK economy being broken and very little in the way of industry left to aid recovery. Add a high percentage of public servants and immigrant hangers-on and you have a recipe for a 10-year recovery at least even with someone sensible in charge.
28

peter1958,

Glasgow 30/10/2009 14:17:56
But hey, the French are officially out of recession - rejoice!
29

peter1958,

Glasgow 30/10/2009 14:23:16
No Mr Angry you are quite wrong.
Brown has paid a terrible price for propping up your city spiv pals.
The reason we are not yet out of recession is because of our increased weighting towards banking and financial services and our dependence upon their invisible earnings.

Brown's masterly approach and assured hand mitigated what could have been a much, much worse crisis.

Now we should consolidate - increase our grip on the banking institutions of the UK, nationalise Lloyds TSB rather than break it up and use the competitive weight of the New Bank of the UK to smash the US banking rivals.

AND increase taxation all round to deliver the social benefits needed to reduce poverty.

You and your lot have had their go!

To the barricades.
30

retiredsco,

Poughkeepsie 30/10/2009 15:45:20
Recession is NOT over in the USA gdp numbers are inflated artificially by the cash for clunker program, unemployment increases and next report will probably reflect smaller if no gain in gdp. Obamanomics is full of fraud.
31

Curtiss,

Galveston Island, near Texas 30/10/2009 16:00:48
It's "foundering" not "floundering," Floundering is fishing in shallow bay waters with a gig for flounder. Founder is to sink by taking on water at sea.

The British economy is left sinking to the bottom. Not, the British economy is depending on fishing for flatfish.
32

freedom not subservience,

still here 30/10/2009 16:24:51
Curtiss stop talking mince my friend
33

Alan B,

30/10/2009 16:35:02
#peter1958

Are you including the 1.5million extra people labour hide from the unemployment figure by adding it to incapacity. Remember they accused the tories of using it to hide unemployment which they did but just not to the level labour did, and then labour have massively increased it.

The other thing about looking at uk unemployment is while you talk of tax revenue per gpd you do not menion spending per gdp.

UK growth has been artificially higher than it should as it was based on more and more consumer debt and not proper organic growth. Add to that massive public sector debt with much like pfi held off balance sheet.

If you run a lax fiscal and lax monetary policy you will boost growth for a while then it will all go t1ts up. That is why we are now seeing the mess we are in.
34

Alan B,

30/10/2009 16:53:03
#29 peter1958

I disagree the reason the recession is so bad in the uk is because brown ignore the economic fundamentals and built an economy on more and more consumer debt via uncontrolled house prices. Along with spending far more public sector money than was coming in in taxation.

When you are in a recession the government normally want the consumer to take some of the strain and spend your way out. We cannot as the consumer is so in depted. The public sector is in so much debt that undermines confidence in the whole economy.

If you build an economy on sand it will fall like a pack of cards. That is what happened. Abit of an ill wind in the global economy and the dreadful underlying will be exposed.
35

Oldhabits,

Bristol 30/10/2009 17:12:29
What is it that the moderator does not like about my posts? No worse than a lot I see on here!! Probably wrong flavour for the Hootsman? Why can you not email me if you are unhappy? Cut out what you like, but the whole script is a bit unfair!!
36

Ggordon,

30/10/2009 17:58:54

33 AlanB

There is also a hidden 1.5 million unemployed on top. who do not claim unemployment benefit. Do not qualify for the £60. Too much cash or not enough contributions. Or received redundancy etc.
37

Ggordon,

30/10/2009 18:05:06


In Norway people pay higher taxes, but also receive higher wages. Just considering taxes does not give the true picture. They also receive many benefits. ie excellent free child care, health service, social needs.

Combine to give one of the best standards of living in the world. Also best quality of life.
38

Keith Lagden,

Sacramento 30/10/2009 18:05:10
If the USA is out of recession, then I'm the real Mickey Mouse.

What a load of politcal clap trap
39

Ggordon,

30/10/2009 18:07:55
35 Oldhabits


If someone complains, they often just cut it completely. Or sometimes it canbe for using peoples names etc. Legal reasons. Unfair but........

Had quite a few deleted LOL
40

westview,

Scotland 30/10/2009 18:12:53
At the centre of the "Arc of Recovery" is the Black Hole of Gordon Brown's Treasury. Not content with pirating my pension he is plundering our grand kids future earnings. For the future chance of a decent life go independent. Like Dennis Canahvan says ,"Let the people speak". The Swiss have a referendum every 3 months , but they live in a democracy.
41

Ggordon,

30/10/2009 18:16:24

What really caused the banks to go down, was by removing BOE ability to control them

When the economy overheated. BOE put up interest rates to cut off supply of cheaper cash, and made borrowing more expensive. Reduced people taking out more debt.
Cooled things down.

Still no proper regulation has been put in by Brown.
Even now. Incompetence.
42

Steve McGregor,

Dundee 30/10/2009 18:24:09
The irony is we have lead the world out of recession, and everyone is out of it, but we are still in it. What went wrong?
43

Ileach,

30/10/2009 19:32:50
I just learned through the Scotsman that the recession is finally over in the US. I wonder when they are going to notify John Q. Public about that? While he stands at the unemployment office looking for work? While he's standing in line at the Health Department getting his (hopefully free) H1N1 shot? While he picks up his food stamps for next month? While his house is being reposessed? A likely story!
44

Yok Finney,

Ross-shire 30/10/2009 20:33:03
The EU generally does big projects on time, to budget as to spec. For the UK this is an unsual event. A more gimcracr ramshackle way of running a country can hardly be imagined.

So lets blame the EU. It has nothing to do with City of London pirates and their Consultants getting their filthy hands on the affair. It's far better init than a properly engineered project getting built by engineers.
45

Sleighride,

Williamsburg 30/10/2009 20:42:50
#4 Better start dialing FOX news, the fair and balanced channel with Jim Cavuto...something is going on with the other networks. They are falling behind Fox and this is driving them crazy...they just can't keep up with them.
46

KWC,

Edinburgh 30/10/2009 20:48:09
Well, Gordon? How to palm this one off? I suspect we'll be hearing next week that we are actually recovering faster and that we are about to overtake wveryone ... by July 2010, if ...

We know the rest.

No time for a novice -- at telling the truth.
47

,

30/10/2009 20:48:29
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