India: A prime target for the purveyors of terror

I WOULD be very surprised if this does not turn out to be an attack carried out by a jihadist group, because all the necessary characteristics are there. Of course there are other organisations that operate in a similar sphere, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba which wants to see India expelled from Kashmir, and there appear to be newer organisations still, whose ideology we know little about.

But one of the most striking things is that the Indian authorities, who have some experience of dealing with terrorism, were clearly taken by complete surprise. This suggests that those who planned the attacks were very sophisticated in their strategy making. All this will be very worrying for the Indian authorities, who will be keen to upgrade their intelligence and security measures – a tall order in a huge country like India.

Gathering intelligence on sophisticated international terrorist organisations is very difficult – you are dealing with groups that have developed skills in encrypting their communications, or perhaps they just avoid using mainstream communications systems, relying on couriers in order to avoid detection. They do everything they can to keep their plans hidden.

The authorities are also dealing with groups capable of accessing the necessary funds and equipment to carry out attacks, which is another concern, bearing in mind international efforts to suppress the funding of terrorism. Geographically, Mumbai is relatively close to the borders of Pakistan. There are suggestions that some members of these organisations may come from this area, and we know that, somehow, organisations have been able to get resources via the very torturous route through the mountains and border area.

We can only guess what the motivations are for the people behind this. I believe there is a desire to damage India's economic future by causing such disruption in their major commercial centre, and a desire to create a climate of fear and uncertainty. Of course there is also a desire to show that they can attack foreigners, including Americans and Britons.

From the point of view of the terrorists, India is an attractive target; it is a country which jihadists would regard with suspicion because they oppose its policy on Kashmir, they despise India's democratic system and secular constitution. All this makes it a legitimate target. Extremist groups which share the ideology of al-Qaeda believe they must make war on western countries, as well as on the governments and authorities of all the countries they want to take control over. It is really, in their eyes, an attack on the world of unbelievers and they regard the western countries, particularly the US and its allies, as being especially attractive targets. But it is too early to specify a particular group, as we know there have been a number involved in terrorist outrages recently in India, not just in Mumbai but in Delhi and by the Kashmir border.

No country should regard itself as immune to al-Qaeda cells and their affiliates, but some countries have more problems in terms of national security than others, perhaps because of conflict, or economic weakness. It is dangerous to speculate which one will be the next potential target because one must be careful these fears are not picked up by terrorist sympathisers. Just by looking at the history since 1993 it is clear what constitutes an obvious target: the jihadist movements affiliated to al-Qaeda have a very wide range of potential targets. As we know, they have not just targeted the police and military bases, they have also frequently hit gathering places where many members of the public will be vulnerable to attack: the tourist centres, night clubs, residential areas, train stations, airports and even ships.

In an attempt to prevent attacks, one of the many lessons that one hopes will be taken on board is that we need excellent international intelligence gathering and co-operation. I think that is one of the priorities, not just for the Indian authorities, but all governments which face a terrorist threat. Countries like France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Britain as well as the USA have been doing that ever since 9/11.

What we should conclude from this terrible outrage in Mumbai, and similar attacks elsewhere, is that we do face a global terrorist problem. It is not the worst problem mankind faces: look at climate change or natural disasters, look at the dangers and damage wrought by escalating conflict between nuclear-armed states. But the al-Qaeda network is the most serious threat that the international community faces and must be tackled with a multilateral strategy.

We must ensure countries are working together, something our Prime Minister has constantly emphasised. I notice that yesterday Gordon Brown has stressed it again, by sending police emergency teams to Mumbai that are well-versed in dealing with terrorism and promising resources to assess which group has been responsible and what the implications are for the rest of the world. This way we have a far better chance of reducing the threat from al-Qaeda movement, of helping the Indian government and their authorities in their efforts to discover who is responsible and to bring them to justice. The idea of a sudden end to the problem is rather unrealistic.

It is hoped the new administration in the US will also be working to these ends. One possible interpretation of the motives behind the Mumbai attacks could be that this terrorist group was trying to send a signal to president-elect Barack Obama.

• Professor Paul Wilkinson is Chairman of the Advisory Board for the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of St Andrews.


Terrorist group was off the radar

SPY agencies had little warning of the terrorist attack in Mumbai.

The group which claimed responsibility – the Deccan Mujahideen – was hitherto unknown, a British security official said. Terrorist threats in India had been increasing, he said, but the scale of the attack on Wednesday was a surprise and there were no indications that attacks would target westerners.

"We have been actively monitoring plots in Britain and abroad, and there was nothing to indicate something like this was about to happen," he said.

Another British security official said that the attack did not look to have been directed by al-Qaeda's core leadership. But he said the fact westerners had been singled out suggested it was inspired by Islamic extremist ideology.

Western security officials believe attacks organised, directed and funded specifically by al-Qaeda's core leadership along the Afghan/Pakistan border are not frequent. More common are incidents in which terrorists have either some limited contact with al-Qaeda leaders, or are inspired by extremist ideology.

A US counter-terrorism official said the attacks resembled those by Pakistani groups on Indian troops in Kashmir.

"Some of what we're seeing is reminiscent of past terrorist operations undertaken by groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed," he said.

Few experts had heard of the Deccan Mujahideen.

"Initially, we saw violence in India imported from outside – with allegations of Pakistani government support – but now we are seeing new, homegrown groups," said Nigel Inkster, a director of transnational threats at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

"There is a possible link to al-Qaeda," he said. "Logically, it would be easier for al-Qaeda to get things done in India than in the US and Europe. Everyone's been expecting some type of pre-US election or post-US election spectacular, and there is some speculation that this is it."