Obama faces hidden dangers

BARACK Obama is apparently cruising to victory in the US presidential election, with poll leads of up to 10 per cent nationally and the numbers going his way in nearly every swing state, but is success now inevitable?

No, insists the candidate himself, who told supporters in New York this week: "For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky or think this is all set, I have just two words for you: New Hampshire.

"I've been in these positions before where we were favoured and the press starts getting carried away and we end up getting spanked," he said.

It was in this north-eastern state in January that voters confounded poll predictions and gave a primary campaign victory to his rival, Hillary Clinton.

Mr Obama has led the polls for four weeks, but for much of the summer Mr McCain was in the lead, and the electorate continues to be erratic.

While the voters prefer Mr Obama on the economy, they tend to opt for Mr McCain on terrorism and national security. With that in mind, Democrats are bracing themselves for an October surprise that could turn things around again.

The most obvious October Surprise is a war, or terrorist outrage. In July, Charlie Black, a McCain camp adviser, blurted out that a terrorist attack on mainland America shortly before polling day would certainly be a big advantage. He was chastised for saying out loud what both campaigns are thinking.

"It is the one thing that could change the agenda from the Democratic strong suit of economics," said Joseph Nye, professor at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.

Four years ago the Democratic senator John Kerry was six points ahead of George Bush in the polls when, four days before the election, Osama bin Laden released one of his infrequent video broadcasts. Mr Kerry's lead disappeared.

A terrorist outrage, or new war, could conceivably turn things around, and Mr McCain might also benefit if the Bush administration manages the unlikely feat of capturing bin Laden. Yet such an occurrence could also backfire, removing terrorism from the minds of voters and allowing them to focus on their deteriorating economy.

And then there is race. Mr Obama is the first black man to stand for president, and no-one knows how much his colour will matter to white voters. Few pollsters ask white voters if they are racist, because they don't expect a straight answer.

But a study published last week predicted, based on results in the primaries, that Mr Obama could lose 3-4 per cent support when white voters get to the ballot box.

Obama supporters counter that this will not affect the outcome. "Let it go down 3 per cent, it's still a landslide," said Phil Noble, a campaign expert who has advised the Democrats and Britain's Labour Party. He believes an Obama defeat now is inconceivable, given the poor showing of his rival in the presidential debates.

"The fundamental problem (for the Republicans] is look at McCain: he's got no message," he said. "To win an election you need the three Ms: message, momentum and money – and McCain's got none of the above."

Democrats say they are braced for an outbreak of so-called Swiftboating, a pro-Republican campaign that chipped away at Mr Kerry's lead in 2004 by claiming, falsely, that he had lied about his Vietnam service. Working against this possibility is that Mr Obama's past has already been extensively raked over by his opponents and there seems little scope for a Swiftboat 2008.

Yet the McCain campaign continues to sound bullish, reminding supporters that 8 per cent of an unusually confused electorate are undecided: enough to tip the balance.